Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students

Te Bao, Brice Corgnet (), Nobuyuki Hanaki, Katsuhiko Okada, Yohanes Riyanto and Jiahua Zhu
Additional contact information
Brice Corgnet: EM - EMLyon Business School
Nobuyuki Hanaki: Osaka University [Osaka]
Katsuhiko Okada: Kwansei Gakuin University
Jiahua Zhu: King‘s College London

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Abstract: We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.

Keywords: Financial forecasting; financial professionals; financial literacy; cognitive skills (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06-01
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Published in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2025, 46, 14 p. ⟨10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101051⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students (2025)
Working Paper: Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students (2024)
Working Paper: Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05053019

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101051

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