Unbiased and Accurate: Measuring Sensitive Outcomes Through Ballot-Bag Surveys

Bruno Crépon (), Ahmed Elsayed () and Jules Gazeaud
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Bruno Crépon: CREST
Ahmed Elsayed: American University in Cairo

No 18072, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Prevailing methods for measuring sensitive outcomes confront researchers with an inherent bias-variance trade- off: direct questioning is prone to a sensitivity bias, while indirect methods such as list experiments are substantially less precise. We introduce the ballot-bag, a novel technique that relaxes this trade-off by mitigating bias in direct questioning while improving precision over indirect methods. In a field experiment in Egypt, where direct questions on irregular migration are biased, ballot-bag estimates closely align with those from a list experiment but exhibit significantly lower variance. Consequently, treatment effects are highly significant via the ballot-bag and not via the list experiment.

Keywords: field experiments; sensitivity bias; survey methods; sensitive behaviors; irregular migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 C93 D83 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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