When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets

Kurmann, André (), Lalé, Etienne () and Julien Martin ()
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Kurmann, André: Drexel University
Lalé, Etienne: York University, Canada
Julien Martin: Université du Québec à Montréal, CEPR, and CIRANO
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Etienne Lalé

No 18626, IZA Discussion Papers from IZA Network @ LISER

Abstract: We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.

Keywords: tourism; smartphone data; employment; business dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Related works:
Working Paper: When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets (2026)
Working Paper: When neighbours stop knocking: The impact of Canada's 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labour markets (2026)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18626

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