Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance

David Bloom and David Canning

No 10817, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Transitions from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility can be beneficial to economies as large baby boom cohorts enter the workforce and save for retirement, while rising longevity has perhaps increased both the incentive to invest in education and to save for retirement. We present estimates of a model of economic growth that highlights the positive effects of demographic change during 1960-95. We also show how Ireland benefited from lower fertility in the form of higher labor supply per capita and how Taiwan benefited through increased savings rates. We emphasize, however, that the realization of the potential benefits associated with the demographic transition appears to be dependent on institutions and policies, requiring the productive employment of the potential workers and savings the transition generates. Economic projections based on an "accounting" approach that assumes constant age-specific behavior are likely to be seriously misleading.

JEL-codes: J11 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
Note: AG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (72)

Published as David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.

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Working Paper: Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance (2005)
Journal Article: Global demographic change: dimensions and economic significance (2004)
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