The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data

Giovanni Peri and Akira Sasahara

No 25728, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.

JEL-codes: J61 O13 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-env, nep-lab and nep-mig
Note: DEV LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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