Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan Wright

No 34702, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

JEL-codes: C5 E3 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
Note: ME
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