Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Emanuel Mönch () and Harald Uhlig ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Emanuel Moench

Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2005, vol. 2005, issue 1, 43-69

Abstract: This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine, we construct several monthly series of Euro area real GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration across business cycle phases, we propose to extend this method with a combined amplitude/phase-length criterion ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and Euro area data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Keywords: Business cycle; European business cycle; Euro area; Bry-Boschan; NBER methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2005-5km7v183t48r (text/html)
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Related works:
Working Paper: Towards a monthly business cycle chronology for the euro area (2005)
Working Paper: Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area (2004)
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