Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry

Richard Etter () and Michael Graff

Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2004, vol. 2004, issue 1, 109-131

Abstract: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and inventory statistics. It is shown that the survey data can be used to generate reasonably precise estimates of the reference series with leads of at least one quarter. Specifically, cross-correlations of quarterly series are computed to screen the data for pairs of highly correlated business tendency survey series and corresponding official statistics. All pairs are identified where the maximum correlation shows up simultaneously or with a lead of the survey based series and exceeds a given threshold...

Keywords: Composite business cycle indicators; Principal components (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art7-en (text/html)
Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5lmqcr2jfb8v

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis from OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().