Riziko měnové krize z hlediska účasti v kursovém mechanismu ERM II

The risk of currency crisis in the period of participating in exchange rate mechanism ERM II

Mojmir Helisek ()

Politická ekonomie, 2008, vol. 2008, issue 3, 380-403

Abstract: In the course of exchange rate development history of the countries taking part and evaluated in ERM or ERM II before they entered the euro-area there was no depreciating evolution with a trend to currency crisis at all. Fundamental indicators of these economies, partly owing to the compliance with other Maastricht criteria, do not induce devaluation expectancions of investors. However, there is a danger in two other lines. Firstly there is the possibility of so called pure contagion, secondly there are specifics connected directly with taking part in ERM II (wrong configuration of the central parity, appreciating exchange rate overshooting or advancing the date of the euro conversion). The second generation models of currency crisis admits the risk of crisis even without an outstanding decline of fundamental indicators. Taking part of exchange rate in ERM II is a suitable application of the model. Under specific conditions, when taking part in ERM II should trend to the compliance with the exchange rate convergency criterion at the same time, there is a small expectancy of a speculative attack success.

Keywords: currency crisis; ERM II; euro; euro area; exchange rate convergence criterion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 F32 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.645.html (text/html)
http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.645.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2008:y:2008:i:3:id:645:p:380-403

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Redakce Politické ekonomie, Vysoká škola ekonomická, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
http://polek.vse.cz

DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.645

Access Statistics for this article

Politická ekonomie is currently edited by Jiřina Bulisová

More articles in Politická ekonomie from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().