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2011 - 2022

From University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
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2016, volume 06

Weekly Outlook: Pork Industry Faces Tight Margin Year

Chris Hurt

Possible 2016 Harvest Prices for Corn

Gary Schnitkey

The Profitability of Ethanol Production in 2015

Scott Irwin

Questioning the Final RFS Rule, Part 1: the Rule and a Review

Jonathan Coppess

Still More on "Who's Spoofing Whom?"

Paul Peterson

Weekly Outlook: Weak Export Demand Continues to Contribute to Low Corn Prices

Darrel Good

Possible Crop Revenues for Corn in McLean County, Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

The New Upside-Down Relationship of Ethanol and Gasoline Prices

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Questioning the Final RFS Rule, Part 2: the Meaning of the Word 'Supply'

Jonathan Coppess

Managing on Thinner Margins

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

Weekly Outlook: Smaller Winter Wheat Crop in 2016?

Darrel Good

Crop Insurance Premiums and Use in 2015 and 2016

Gary Schnitkey

The Crop Acreage Puzzle Revisited--With Implications for 2016

Darrel Good and Scott Irwin

Questioning the Final RFS Rule, Part 3: Reasonableness of the Interpretation

Jonathan Coppess

Weekly Outlook: Crop Margins in a Boom-Moderation Price Cycle

Chris Hurt

Should Prospective ARC-CO Payments Impact 2016 Crop Insurance Decisions?

Gary Schnitkey

Using FSA Acreage Data to Project NASS January Planted Acreage Estimates for Corn and Soybeans

Darrel Good and Scott Irwin

Cottonseed and U.S. Oilseed Farm Program Issues

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

Components of Cropland Value in the Cornbelt

Christopher Seifert and Bruce Sherrick

Weekly Outlook: Robust Beef Expansion Will Slow

Chris Hurt

Release of iFarm Premium Calculator and iFarm Payment Evaluator

Gary Schnitkey, Bruce Sherrick and Scott Irwin

The Competitive Position of Ethanol as an Octane Enhancer

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Balancing Business and Financial Risk

Michael Langemeier

Weekly Outlook: Exports of Ethanol and Distillers' Grains Remain Strong

Darrel Good

Use of YA, YE, and TA in Determining Yield for Crop Insurance

Gary Schnitkey

Following-up on RFS Questions

Jonathan Coppess

The Profitability of Biodiesel Production in 2015

Scott Irwin

Leverage and Financial Risk

Michael Langemeier

Weekly Outlook: A Weather Market for Corn in 2016?

Darrel Good

Corn versus Soybean Returns: 2016 Projections with Historical Comparisons

Gary Schnitkey

More on the Competitive Position of Ethanol as an Octane Enhancer

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

To Harvest Stover or Not: Is it Worth it?

Madhu Khanna and Nick Paulson

Monitoring Agricultural Debt Increases

Brandy Krapf, Dwight Raab and Bradley Zwilling

Weekly Outlook: Monitoring the Pace of Corn and Soybean Consumption

Darrel Good

2015 ARC-CO Payment Estimates for Corn and Soybeans

Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey

Are Gasoline Prices Still High Relative to Crude Oil Prices?

Scott Irwin

Dead Zones & Drinking Water, Part 1: RCPP and Review

Jonathan Coppess

Leverage and Interest Rate Risk

Michael Langemeier

Weekly Outlook: Pork Industry - A Little Profit for 2016

Chris Hurt

Crop Insurance Decisions for 2016

Bruce Sherrick and Gary Schnitkey

Forming Expectations for the 2016 U.S. Average Corn Yield: What About El Niño?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

2015 Year End RIN Update

Nick Paulson

Stress Testing Financial Performance

Michael Langemeier

Weekly Outlook: Expectations for the March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate

Darrel Good

2015 and 2016 ARC-CO Payment Estimates using the ARC-CO PLC Payment Estimator

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Jonathan Coppess

Forming Expectations for the 2016 U.S. Average Soybean Yield: What About El Niño?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Dead Zones & Drinking Water, Part 2: Why Tile Matters

Jonathan Coppess

Examining Factors Affecting Long Term Corn and Soybean Prices

Carl Zulauf

Weekly Outlook: Surprising Strength in Soybean Prices

Darrel Good

Soybean Planting Decision in 2016: Are Soybeans-After-Soybeans Profitable?

Gary Schnitkey

Forming Expectations for 2016 U.S. Average Corn and Soybean Yields: What about El Niño Transitions?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

farmdoc daily Turns Five Today!

Scott Irwin

Dead Zones & Drinking Water, Part 3: the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy

Jonathan Coppess

Working Capital and the Age of the Farm Operator

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

Any Information in Mid-Year Soybean Stocks Estimate?

Darrel Good

Downward Pressures on 2016 and 2017 Cash Rents

Gary Schnitkey

Cost of the 2014 Farm Bill Commodity Programs

Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey

Dead Zones & Drinking Water, Part 4: the Des Moines Water Works Lawsuit

Jonathan Coppess

What Do Prospective Plantings Tell Us About Planted Acreage?

Olga Isengildina-Massa

Fewer Hogs and Higher Prices

Chris Hurt

County Corn and Soybean Yields in 2015

Gary Schnitkey

Forming Expectations for 2016 U.S. Average Winter and Spring Wheat Yields: What About El Niño?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Measuring Farm Profitability

Michael Langemeier

Corn Consumption and Acreage

Darrel Good

Averages and Seasonality of Prices for Nitrogen Fertilizers

Gary Schnitkey

The Relationship between Stocks-to-Use and Corn and Soybean Prices: An Alternative View

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Dead Zones & Drinking Water, Part 5: Farm Bill Conservation Policy

Jonathan Coppess

Measuring Efficiency of Farm Asset Utilization

Michael Langemeier

Corn Market Waiting for Summer Weather

Darrel Good

Crop Insurance Guarantees Compared to Total Costs Over Time

Gary Schnitkey

Forming Corn and Soybean Price Expectations for 2016-17

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Visualizing Farm Sector Income and Financial Data

Kevin Patrick and Ryan Kuhns

Cost to Produce Corn and Soybeans in Illinois-2015

Brandy Krapf, Dwight Raab and Bradley Zwilling

Implications of Corn and Soybean Planting Progress

Darrel Good

2016 Corn and Soybean Returns Revisited

Gary Schnitkey

Why Crop Insurance Has Become an Issue

Carl Zulauf

Du Pont Financial Analysis

Michael Langemeier

The New Era of Corn and Soybean Prices Is Still Alive and Kicking

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Are Large Corn and Soybean Price Swings Finished or Just Started?

Darrel Good

2016 Net Farm Income Projections Under Different Price Scenarios

Gary Schnitkey

The Farm Safety Net: The Good and Not So Good

Michael Boehlje and Michael Langemeier

Sensitivity Analysis of New Corn and Soybean Pricing Models

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Falling Cattle Prices, Where Is the Bottom?

Chris Hurt

2015 ARP and SCO Payments for Corn and Soybeans in Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

How Well Can Banker's Predict Future Farm Loan Volumes? Evidence from the Chicago Fed

Todd Kuethe and Todd Hubbs

Crop Insurance Premium Subsidy Rates: A Proposed Objective Metric Based on Systemic Risk

Carl Zulauf

When Will Cattle Finishing Be Profitable Again?

Michael Langemeier

Export Progress for Corn, Ethanol, and Distillers’ Grains

Darrel Good

2016 Marketing Gain Impacts on Income Statements Will be Limited

Gary Schnitkey

2016 1st Quarter RIN Update

Nick Paulson

Projected Margins and Breakeven Prices for Corn

Michael Langemeier and Michael Boehlje

Corn and Soybean Demand Improving

Darrel Good

Crop Insurance Performance in 2015: Low Losses Predominate

Gary Schnitkey

2016 Yield Distributions for U.S. Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Using Historical WASDE May Forecast Errors

Carl Zulauf

What Lies Ahead for Swine Feed Costs?

Michael Langemeier

Does More Corn = More Profit for 2015???

Bradley Zwilling, Dwight Raab and Brandy Krapf

Will Summer Pricing Opportunities Materialize for Corn and Soybeans?

Darrel Good

Late Planting Decisions in 2016

Gary Schnitkey

New Corn and Soybean Pricing Models and World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

The EPA's Proposed 2017 RFS Standards: Is a Push Still a Push?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

2015 Estimated ARC-CO Payments

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

Corn Prices to Reflect Summer Weather and Demand Strength

Darrel Good

Estimated 2016 ARC-CO Payments

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

RFS Standards Beyond 2017 - Biodiesel or Bust?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Identification of Unique Resources

Michael Langemeier

Hog Profits - Battle Between Higher Hog Prices and Higher Feed Prices

Chris Hurt

Changes in Yields, Acres, and Prices of Cereal Grains over Time in the United States

Gary Schnitkey

Assessment of May WASDE Price and per acre Revenue Forecasts

Carl Zulauf

Dead Zones & Drinking Water: an Update on the DMWW Lawsuit

Jonathan Coppess

U.S. Gasoline Consumption: Where to From Here?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Corn Stocks, Acreage, and Yield

Darrel Good

Anhydrous Ammonia, Corn, and Natural Gas Prices Over Time

Gary Schnitkey

Are National Yield Declines Associated with Revenue Declines for U.S. Crops Over the Crop Insurance Coverage Period?

Carl Zulauf

Does the Market Read Too Much into the USDA's March 1 and June 1 Corn Stocks Estimates?

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

How Does the Percentage of Cash Rented Acres Affect Liquidity?

Brandy Krapf, Dwight Raab and Bradley Zwilling

Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Weather

Darrel Good

Working Capital Changes Projected for Grain Farms in 2016: Before and After Recent Price Changes

Gary Schnitkey

To Harvest Stover or Not: Part 2

Nick Paulson and Madhu Khanna

Increasing Crop Insurance Coverage Levels: An Assessment

Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey

Vigorous Weeds and Lethargic Regulations: A Wicked Problem for Farmers

Lisa Schlessinger and A. Endres

Modest Pork Expansion, But Brexit Casts Shadow

Chris Hurt

Release of Revised 2016 Illinois Crop Budgets

Gary Schnitkey

Use of the SCO and STAX Insurance Programs in 2015

Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey

Examining Trends in Liquidity for a Sample of Kansas Farms

Michael Langemeier and Allen Featherstone

Corn Prices Face Strong Headwinds

Darrel Good

Costs and Benefits of Cover Crops: An Example with Cereal Rye

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

Consider Planting Less Corn and More Soybeans in 2017

Gary Schnitkey

Now That It’s 2016, Let’s Compare 2014 Farm Bill Programs to the 2008 Farm Bill

Scott Gerlt, Wyatt Thompson, Rob Johansson and Sharon Sydow

Soybean Prices Dominated By Supply Uncertainty

Darrel Good

Growth Rates of Fertilizer, Pesticide, and Seed Costs over Time

Gary Schnitkey and Sarah Sellars

Growing Season Crop Losses since 1978 on the Same Illinois and Kansas Farms

Carl Zulauf, Jinsoon Lim, Sang-Hyo Kim, Vecdi Demircan, Gary Schnitkey and Kevin Herbel

Uncertainty About 2016 U.S. Average Corn and Soybean Yields Persists

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Debt, Repayment Margins and Farm Income

Bradley Zwilling, Dwight Raab and Brandy Krapf

How Big Is the Market for U.S. Corn?

Darrel Good

Changes in Where Corn Is Grown in the Last Ten Years

Gary Schnitkey

Revisiting USDA Corn and Soybean Grain Stocks Estimates

Scott Irwin, Darrel Good and Dwight Sanders

County-Farm Loss Basis: Evidence from Illinois and Kansas Farm Management Data

Carl Zulauf, Jinsoon Lim, Sang-Hyo Kim, Vecdi Demircan, Gary Schnitkey and Kevin Herbel

Impact of Corn and Soybean Meal Prices on Swine Finishing Feed Cost

Michael Langemeier

Cattle Markets Can Recover

Chris Hurt

Growth in Crop Costs and Cash Rents

Gary Schnitkey

The Profitability of Biodiesel Production in 2016: Feasting on an Expiring Tax Credit?

Scott Irwin

Implied Probabilities for Corn and Soybeans Prices for 2016

Bruce Sherrick

Why is Revenue More Variable over the Growing Season in Kansas than Illinois?

Carl Zulauf, Jinsoon Lim, Sang-Hyo Kim, Vecdi Demircan, Gary Schnitkey and Kevin Herbel

Corn and Soybeans in the Home Stretch

Darrel Good

Corn and Soybean Revenue Projections for 2016 and 2017

Gary Schnitkey

2016 Mid-Year RIN Update

Nick Paulson

U.S. Feeding of Wheat

Carl Zulauf

Farm Growth: Challenges and Opportunities

Michael Boehlje and Michael Langemeier

What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading?

Darrel Good

2016 Cash Rents and Land Values for Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

Slight Decrease in Illinois Farm Real Estate for 2016

Brad Zwilling

Mapping the Farm Bill: the Traditional Farm Coalition and Current Production

Jonathan Coppess and Todd Kuethe

Some Perspective on the USDA's August 1 Corn and Soybean Yield Projections

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Major Focus on Corn and Soybean Yields

Darrel Good

Continued Downward Pressure on 2017 Cash Rent

Gary Schnitkey

Understanding "Implied Ear Weight" in USDA's August Corn Yield Forecast

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

2015 Estimated ARC-CO Payments

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

Corn and Soybean Storage

Darrel Good

What a Difference $.50 (or a Summer) Makes

Gary Schnitkey

Will Crop Insurance Pay in 2016?

Gary Schnitkey

Mapping the Farm Bill: Expanding the Traditional Farm Coalition

Jonathan Coppess and Todd Kuethe

Opening Up the Black Box: More on the USDA Corn Yield Forecasting Methodology

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Beef and Pork's Role in Filling the Supply Gap

Chris Hurt

The Danger of Refinancing

Gary Schnitkey

The Evolution of Cottage Food Regulation in Illinois

Lisa Schlessinger and A. Endres

Explaining ARC-CO Payments with Illustrations for the 2016 and 2017 Crops

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

International Benchmarks for Corn Production

Michael Langemeier

Soybean Use Exceeded USDA Projection, Did Corn Use Fall Short?

Darrel Good

Break-Even Levels for Corn and Soybeans to Have the Same Profitability

Gary Schnitkey

Negative Economic Profit Margins for Dairy Producers in 2015, Likely to Continue Negative Trend in 2016

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

International Benchmarks for Soybean Production

Michael Langemeier

Large U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Prospects Confirmed

Darrel Good

2016 County Cash Rents

Gary Schnitkey

An Agrarian Take on US Economic Malaise

Carl Zulauf

Mapping the Farm Bill: Farm and Farm Operators

Todd Kuethe and Jonathan Coppess

Net Farm Income Trends

Bradley Zwilling, Dwight Raab and Brandy Krapf

Anticipating Changes in Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts

Darrel Good

Working Capital Buffers Gone at End of 2016

Gary Schnitkey

Comparing Revenue and Price Declines during Recent Multiple Year Declines

Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson

Dead Zones & Drinking Water: Update on Precision Conservation Management

Jonathan Coppess and Laura Gentry

International Benchmarks for Wheat Production

Michael Langemeier and Elizabeth Yeager

Too Early to Sell the 2017 Soybean Crop?

Darrel Good

2017 Crop Budgets, 2016 Crop Returns and 2016 Incomes

Gary Schnitkey

Big Corn and Soybean Crops Get Bigger is a Myth!

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Comparing Input Price Changes during Multiple Year Declines: Rent as an Outlier in the Current Decline

Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey

Pork Outlook Turns Sour

Chris Hurt

Financial Performance of Illinois Grain Farms: Deterioration in 2015

Gary Schnitkey

What's Up with RINs Prices?

Scott Irwin

Real Deflated Prices of Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Upland Cotton: Reemergence of the Historical Downward Trend?

Carl Zulauf

An Update on the Farm Safety Net

Michael Langemeier and Michael Boehlje

Prospects for Corn Use for Ethanol Production

Darrel Good

Corn and Soybean Acres in Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

Impact of Lower Corn Prices on Feeding Cost of Gain and Cattle Finishing Net Returns

Michael Langemeier

What's in a Name? FDA Working to Define "Natural" and Redefine "Healthy"

Lisa Schlessinger and A. Endres

Large U.S. Corn and Soybean Crops Place Emphasis on Foreign Markets

Todd Hubbs

2015 ARC-CO Payments for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

Revisiting Surprises in USDA's Quarterly Grain Stocks Estimates - Evidence from Wheat

Scott Irwin, Darrel Good and Dwight Sanders

Explaining Fluctuations in DDG Prices

Michael Langemeier

How Will Family Living Affect My 2017 Budgets?

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

Soybean Prices Remain Strong

Darrel Good

Soybean Yields in Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

Soybeans, China, and the Rest of the World: Changing of the Guard?

Carl Zulauf

Further Discussion of the ARC-CO Program and Revenue-Based Farm Policy

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

Tenure Characteristics of Illinois Farmland

Dale Lattz

2016 Harvest Prices and High Yields Imply Low Crop Insurance Payments in Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

Assessing South American Corn and Soybean Yield Risks: Exploring the Data Sources

Darrel Good, Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin

Baseline for Next Farm Bill's Crop Commodity Programs: An Early Perspective

Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson

Comparing Net Returns for Alternative Leasing Arrangements

Michael Langemeier

Cattle Prices, More Room for Recovery?

Chris Hurt

Cash Rent as a Percent of Farmland Price

Gary Schnitkey

Assessing South American Corn Yield Risks: Estimating the Yield Trend

Darrel Good, Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin

2016 3rd Quarter RIN Update

Nick Paulson

Early Thoughts: 2016 Election Results and the Next Farm Bill

Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

Corn Use Prospects

Todd Hubbs

First Projections of 2016 ARC-CO Payments

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

Assessing South American Soybean Yield Risks: Estimating the Yield Trend

Darrel Good, Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin

US Corn Ethanol Market: Understanding the Past to Assess the Future

Carl Zulauf

Where Is Your Net Worth?

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

Will U.S. Corn and Soybean Surpluses Be Reduced Next Year?

Darrel Good

ARC-CO Payment Timing and Cash Rent Bidding

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

NASS Surveys Have Direct Impact on Critical Farm Programs

Mark Schleusener

EPA Renewable Fuel Standard Rallies Soybean Oil Prices

Darrel Good

2016 Gross Revenue and Income Projections for Corn and Soybeans in Central Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

The EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard Rulemaking for 2017 Was More Aggressive than Expected

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Accelerated Depreciation and Machinery Purchases

Michael Langemeier

Hog Prices Join Corn and Wheat at Ten-Year Lows

Chris Hurt

2017 Crop Budgets and Current Prices Say Switch to Soybeans and Expect Low Returns

Gary Schnitkey and Darrel Good

The RFS and Domestic Consumption of Conventional Ethanol and Biomass-Based Diesel to 2022

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Farm Payments by Countercyclical and Insurance Programs Since 2002

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

Investigating U.S. Soybean Export Potential

Todd Hubbs

2017 Crop Insurance Premiums and 2016 Insurance Use in Illinois

Gary Schnitkey

Assessing Brazilian Corn Yield Risks with the First and Second Crops: Historical Deviations from Trend

Todd Hubbs, Darrel Good and Scott Irwin

Assessing Argentine Corn Yield Risk: Historical Deviations from Trend

Todd Hubbs, Darrel Good and Scott Irwin

Costs and Returns for Illinois Beef Producers in 2015

Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf and Dwight Raab

Rising Interest Rates and Farmland Prices

Gary Schnitkey

A Quick Primer on US Agricultural Trade

Kathy Baylis

Assessing the Potential for Higher Corn Prices

Darrel Good