Statistics, Politics and Policy

2010 - 2026

Current editor(s): Joel A. Middleton

From De Gruyter
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VAAs Users’ Voting Behavior and the Role of Partisanship. Evidence from the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections pp. 87-104: Gallina Marta
The Impact of VAAs on (non-Voting) Aspects of Political Participation: Insights from Panel Data Collected During the 2017 German Federal Elections Campaign pp. 105-134: Manavopoulos Vasilis, Triga Vasiliki, Marschall Stefan and Wurthmann Lucas Constantin
Validating and Improving Voting Advice Applications: Estimating Party Positions Using Candidate Surveys pp. 135-160: Andreadis Ioannis and Giebler Heiko
The Impact of Voting Advice Applications on Electoral Turnout: Evidence from Greece pp. 161-179: Gemenis Kostas

The Financial Crisis, Fiscal Federalism, and the Creditworthiness of US State Governments pp. 1-30: McBrayer Markie, Shea Patrick E. and Kirkland Justin H.
An Attempt to Position the German Political Parties on a Tree for 2013 and 2017 pp. 31-56: Prisner Erich
Estimating the Conflict Dimensionality in the German Länder from Vote Advice Applications, 2014–2017 pp. 57-86: Nyhuis Dominic and König Pascal

Editor’s Note pp. 121-122: Wagschal Uwe
Unpacking Big Data in Education. A Research Framework pp. 123-137: Rosanna De Rosa and Aragona Biagio
A Semi-automatic Method to Retrieve Twitter Accounts pp. 139-151: Nocca Florence
Themes and Topics in Parliamentary Oversight Hearings: A New Direction in Textual Data Analysis pp. 153-194: Sanders James, Lisi Giulio and Schonhardt-Bailey Cheryl
How to Lose Cases and Influence People pp. 195-221: Hinkle Rachael K. and Nelson Michael J.
Examining the Policy Learning Dynamics of Atypical Policies with an Application to State Preemption of Local Dog Laws pp. 223-247: Fix Michael P. and Mitchell Joshua L.
Voting in Nigeria: Determinants of Turnout in the 2015 Presidential Election pp. 249-260: Nwankwo Cletus Famous and Okafor Uchenna Paulinus

The Representativity of Election Polls pp. 1-12: Bethlehem Jelke
Less Supervision, More Satisficing? Comparing Completely Self-Administered Web-Surveys and Interviews Under Controlled Conditions pp. 13-28: Mühlböck Monika, Steiber Nadia and Kittel Bernhard
Did Shy Trump Supporters Bias the 2016 Polls? Evidence from a Nationally-representative List Experiment pp. 29-40: Coppock Alexander
Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters pp. 41-63: Enns Peter K., Lagodny Julius and Schuldt Jonathon P.
Roosevelt Predicted to Win: Revisiting the 1936 Literary Digest Poll pp. 65-84: Lohr Sharon L. and Brick J. Michael
Predicting the Brexit Vote by Tracking and Classifying Public Opinion Using Twitter Data pp. 85-104: Amador Diaz Lopez Julio Cesar, Collignon-Delmar Sofia, Benoit Kenneth and Matsuo Akitaka
What do we Lose with Online-Only Surveys? Estimating the Bias in Selected Political Variables Due to Online Mode Restriction pp. 105-120: Klaus Pforr and Dannwolf Tanja

Editor’s Note pp. 1-2: Wagschal Uwe
Self-Interest or Solidarity? pp. 3-28: Mueller Sean, Vatter Adrian and Schmid Charlie
Measurement Error and Attenuation Bias in Exponential Random Graph Models pp. 29-54: Kim Yeaji, Antenangeli Leonardo and Kirkland Justin
A Demographic Peace? Youth Bulges and Other Population-Related Causes of Domestic Conflict pp. 55-97: Wagschal Uwe and Metz Thomas
Statistical Literacy in the Classroom: Should Introductory Statistics Courses Rethink their Goals? pp. 99-115: McLauchlan Cynthia and Schonlau Matthias

Political Institutions and State Sales Tax Base Erosion pp. 1-17: Propheter Geoffrey
Party Control and Perverse Effects in Majority-Minority Districting: Replication Challenges When Using DW-NOMINATE pp. 19-37: Simons Joseph and Mallinson Daniel J.
Unbiased Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect in Cluster-Randomized Experiments pp. 39-75: Middleton Joel A. and Aronow Peter M.
Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance pp. 77-96: McCaskey Kelly and Rainey Carlisle
Assessing Robustness of Findings About Racial Redistricting’s Effect on Southern House Delegations pp. 97-116: Sanchez-Martinez Carlos A. and Shotts Kenneth W.

A Note on Close Elections and Regression Analysis of the Party Incumbency Advantage pp. 1-11: Aronow Peter M., Mayhew David R. and Lin Winston

Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment pp. 1-13: Thomas A. C., Gelman Andrew, Gary King and Jonathan Katz
Elections 2012: Suppressing Fraud or Suppressing the Vote? pp. 14-28: Ash Arlene S. and Lamperti John W.
Single Regression Estimates of Voting Choices When Turnout is Unknown pp. 22: Jeffrey Zax
Synthetic Priors that Merge Opinion from Multiple Experts pp. 26: Das Sourish, Yang Hongxia and Banks David
Risk-limiting Audits and the Margin of Victory in Nonplurality Elections pp. 29-64: Sarwate Anand D., Checkoway Stephen and Shacham Hovav
Response to Andrew Gelman by Charles Murray pp. 65-69: Murray Charles
Charles Murray’s Coming Apart and the measurement of social and political divisions pp. 70-81: Gelman Andrew

Monitoring Progress Towards Millennium Development Goal 4: A Call for Improved Validation of Under-Five Mortality Rate Estimates pp. 19: Alkema Leontine, Wong Maria B. and Seah Pei Rong
Teacher Effect Estimates and Decision Rules for Establishing Student-Teacher Linkages: What are the Implications for High-Stakes Personnel Policies in an Urban School District? pp. 24: Han Bing, McCaffrey Daniel, Matthew Springer and Gottfried Michael
Comprehension of Graphs and Tables Depend on the Task: Empirical Evidence from Two Web-Based Studies pp. 35: Schonlau Matthias and Peters Ellen
A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality pp. 41: Wilmoth John R., Mizoguchi Nobuko, Oestergaard Mikkel Z., Say Lale, Mathers Colin D., Zureick-Brown Sarah, Inoue Mie and Chou Doris
The Value Deming's Ideas Can Add to Educational Evaluation pp. 42: Lohr Sharon L.

Comment on "Why and When 'Flawed' Social Network Analyses Still Yield Valid Tests of no Contagion" pp. 5: Shalizi Cosma Rohilla
Why and When "Flawed" Social Network Analyses Still Yield Valid Tests of no Contagion pp. 13: VanderWeele Tyler J., Ogburn Elizabeth L. and Tchetgen Tchetgen Eric J.
Climate Statistics and Public Policy pp. 17: Guttorp Peter
Data, Statistics, and Controversy: Making Science Research Data Intelligible pp. 22: Sedransk Nell, Young Linda J. and Spiegelman Cliff
Problems with Tests of the Missingness Mechanism in Quantitative Policy Studies pp. 25: Rhoads Christopher H.
Major Contributions to Quantitative Economics Sponsored by the Defense Community pp. 28: Solomon Henry
Improving Statistical Inference with Clustered Data pp. 30: Harden Jeffrey J.