Decision under normative uncertainty

Franz Dietrich and Brian Jabarian

Economics and Philosophy, 2022, vol. 38, issue 3, 372-394

Abstract: While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the ‘original position’, where one’s future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty – normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle – maximizing expected value (‘Expectationalism’) – has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative uncertainty (2018)
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