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Decision Under Normative Uncertainty

Franz Dietrich and Brian Jabarian ()
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Brian Jabarian: PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UP1 UFR10 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Philosophie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. Normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) uncertainty in the 'original position', where one's values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty — normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle — maximising expected value ( 'Expectationalism') — has rival formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These rival theories recommend differend decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Keywords: expected value theory; expectationalism; ex-ante versus ex-post approach; normative versus empirical uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02905431v3
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Published in 2021

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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02905431v3/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative uncertainty (2018) Downloads
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