Decision Under Normative Uncertainty

Franz Dietrich and Brian Jabarian ()
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Brian Jabarian: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UP1 UFR10 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Philosophie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

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Abstract: While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the 'original position', where one's future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty — normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle — maximising expected value ( 'Expectationalism') — has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Keywords: ex-ante versus ex-post approach; expectationalism; expected value theory; normative versus empirical uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02905431v4
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Published in 2021

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Related works:
Journal Article: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative uncertainty (2018)
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