Decision under normative uncertainty

Franz Dietrich and Brian Jabarian ()
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Brian Jabarian: UP1 UFR10 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Philosophie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the ‘original position', where one's future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty – normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle – maximizing expected value (‘Expectationalism') – has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Keywords: normative and empirical uncertainty; general framework; normative uncertainty versus identity uncertainty in Harsanyi and Rawls; maximizing expected value; ex ante versus ex post perspective (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-isf
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03282198v1
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Published in 2021, ⟨10.1017/S0266267121000201⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2022)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision under normative uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2021)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Working Paper: Decision Under Normative uncertainty (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03282198

DOI: 10.1017/S0266267121000201

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