An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

Open Economies Review, 2022, vol. 33, issue 1, No 4, 89-108

Abstract: Abstract Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.

Keywords: Climate change; Vulnerability; Resilience; Government debt; Sovereign default; C23; C83; E32; E43; F34; F41; G15; H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Working Paper: An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults (2020)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-021-09624-8

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