National Institute Economic Review

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Volume 211, issue 1, 2010

AT A GLANCE... The world economy pp. F2-F2

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AT A GLANCE... The UK economy pp. F3-F3

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FINANCIAL REGULATION AND COMMERCIAL PROTECTION: SHOULD POLICY CHANGE? pp. F4-F11

Ray Barrell and Martin Weale

OECD will regain pre-crisis levels of output in 2011 pp. F12-F16

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. F17-F21

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

North American responses to the global downturn pp. F22-F24

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

China and world trade pp. F25-F26

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

Rising public debt and the need for fiscal consolidation in Europe pp. F27-F37

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

A COMPARISON OF LABOUR MARKET RESPONSES TO THE GLOBAL DOWNTURN pp. F38-F42

Dawn Holland, Simon Kirby and Rachel Whitworth

PROSPECTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY pp. F43-F62

Simon Kirby, Rachel Whitworth and Nathan Foley-Fisher

MATURING DEBT AND DEFAULT RISKS pp. F63-F64

Nathan Foley-Fisher

POLICY RESPONSES TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR: INTRODUCTION pp. 65-66

Ray Barrell

MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATION - THE MISSING POLICY PILLAR pp. 67-80

E Davis and Dilruba Karim

IS A LESS PRO-CYCLICAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AN ACHIEVABLE GOAL? pp. 81-90

Charles Goodhart

MANAGING HOUSING BUBBLES IN REGIONAL ECONOMIES UNDER EMU: IRELAND AND SPAIN pp. 91-108

Thomas Conefrey and John Fitz Gerald

MACROECONOMICS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: FULL EMPLOYMENT AS A POLICY GOAL pp. 109-114

Roger Farmer

FISCAL AND FINANCIAL RESPONSES TO THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN pp. 115-126

Ray Barrell and Dawn Holland

Volume 210, issue 1, 2009

AT A GLANCE... The world economy pp. 2-2

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AT A GLANCE... The UK economy pp. 3-3

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COMMENTARY: THE BURDEN OF THE NATIONAL DEBT pp. 4-8

Martin Weale

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Consumer spending and the financial crisis pp. 9-15

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Effects of risk premia falling below sustainable levels in the US pp. 16-20

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Asian fiscal stimulus supporting the global recovery pp. 21-24

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Prospects for fiscal consolidation in Europe pp. 25-35

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth

LONG-TERM SCARRING FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS pp. 36-38

Ray Barrell

PROSPECTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY pp. 39-57

Simon Kirby, Ray Barrell and Nathan Foley-Fisher

BUDGET CONSOLIDATION OPTIONS FOR THE UK pp. 58-60

Ray Barrell

CONFIDENCE AND LEADING INDICATORS: INTRODUCTION pp. 61-62

James Mitchell

A SYSTEM OF RAPID ESTIMATES TO IMPROVE REAL-TIME MONITORING OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION: THE CASE OF THE EURO AREA pp. 63-70

Gian Luigi Mazzi and Gaetana Montana

NOWCASTING IS NOT JUST CONTEMPORANEOUS FORECASTING pp. 71-89

Jennifer Castle, Nicholas Fawcett and David Hendry

NOWCASTING EURO AREA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN REAL TIME: THE ROLE OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS pp. 90-97

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Saverio Simonelli

USING REAL-TIME OUTPUT GAPS TO EXAMINE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY CHOICES pp. 98-110

Christopher Adam and David Cobham

ARCHITECTS AS NOWCASTERS OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION pp. 111-122

Mark Holmes, James Mitchell and Brian Silverstone

Volume 209, issue 1, 2009

Economic Overview pp. 2-2

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AT A GLANCE... The UK economy pp. 3-3

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COMMENTARY: INTERNATIONAL RECESSION AND RECOVERY pp. 4-7

Martin Weale

THE WORLD ECONOMY: The recent decline in global risk premia pp. 8-12

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Financing conditions ease in North America pp. 13-17

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Policy easing in East Asia has been effective pp. 18-21

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Recession in the Euro Area pp. 22-34

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

LABOUR MARKETS IN RECESSION: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON pp. 35-41

Dawn Holland, Simon Kirby and Rachel Whitworth

PROSPECTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY pp. 42-59

Simon Kirby and Ray Barrell

WHERE ARE WE NOW? THE UK RECESSION AND NOWCASTING GDP GROWTH USING STATISTICAL MODELS pp. 60-69

James Mitchell

WORK AND WELL-BEING: INTRODUCTION pp. 70-71

Alex Bryson and Richard Freeman

THE EFFECT OF WORK STATUS AND WORKING CONDITIONS ON MENTAL HEALTH IN FOUR OECD COUNTRIES pp. 72-87

Ana Llena-Nozal

VALUING JOBS VIA RETIREMENT: EUROPEAN EVIDENCE pp. 88-103

Andrew Clark and Yarine Fawaz

IS LEISURE CONTAGIOUS? THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SICKNESS ABSENCE AND SPOUSAL RETIREMENT pp. 104-115

Patrik Hesselius

A TALE OF TWO CONTINENTS: INSURING WORKERS AGAINST LOSS OF INCOME DUE TO SICKNESS IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE pp. 116-125

John Treble

STATISTICAL APPENDIX pp. 126-135

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Volume 208, issue 1, 2009

AT A GLANCE...The world economy pp. 2-2

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AT A GLANCE...The UK economy pp. 3-3

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COMMENTARY: FISCAL POLICY AND THE FISCAL POSITION pp. 4-8

Martin Weale

THE WORLD ECONOMY: The global financial crisis and collapse in world trade pp. 9-16

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Recession in North America pp. 17-21

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Asian economies are highly sensitive to the collapse of world trade pp. 22-25

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Destocking in the Euro Area pp. 26-38

Dawn Holland, Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ali Orazgani and Vladimir Pillonca

DEBTS, DEFICITS AND BORROWING COSTS pp. 39-43

Ray Barrell and Dawn Holland

PROSPECTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY pp. 44-60

Simon Kirby, Ray Barrell and Vladimir Pillonca

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY pp. 61-65

Ray Barrell and Simon Kirby

TEN YEARS OF ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION: INTRODUCTION pp. 66-67

Ray Barrell

THE EURO: PAST SUCCESSES AND NEW CHALLENGES pp. 68-85

Marco Buti and Paul Van den Noord

TEN YEARS OF EMU: CONVERGENCE, DIVERGENCE AND NEW POLICY PRIORITIES pp. 86-100

Nicos Christodoulakis

THE IMPACT OF EMU ON REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY OF EU COUNTRIES pp. 101-108

E Davis and Olga Pomerantz

HOW MUCH IS THE EURO AREA COMMON CYCLE AFFECTED BY THE UK? pp. 109-117

Julien Garnier

THE IMPACT OF EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL INTEGRATION ON THE MARK-UP OF PRICES OVER COSTS pp. 118-128

Dawn Holland

STATISTICAL APPENDIX pp. 129-138

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