Futures & Foresight Science

2019 - 2024

From John Wiley & Sons
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Volume 3, issue 3-4, 2021

Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study

David R. Mandel and Daniel Irwin

Toward a science of futures and foresight: Response to 10 experts' commentaries

Alessandro Fergnani and Thomas J. Chermack

Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios

Alessandro Fergnani and John A. Sweeney

Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95)

Alexander B. Kinney

Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

Yusuke Kishita, Toshiki Kusaka, Yuji Mizuno and Yasushi Umeda

A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

Christopher Münch and Heiko A. von der Gracht

Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani & Chermack, 2021

Gerard P. Hodgkinson

Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process

Zsuzsanna Gering, Gábor Király and Réka Tamássy

Resistance to hegemony in theorising scenario methods: A manifesto in response to Fergnani and Chermack, 2021

George Cairns

Theory development in foresight research: Commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

Paul Schoemaker

Developing the needed scientific theory will not be easy: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

Ahti Salo

Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021

Shardul Sharad Phadnis

Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

Matti Minkkinen

A positive future for futures and foresight science needs fierce competition in the marketplace of ideas: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021

David R. Mandel

The reception of theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

Alessandro Fergnani and Thomas J. Chermack

Volume 3, issue 2, 2021

Experimental history: The slow, painful birth of a new field. Rejoinder to commentaries on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)

Ian S. Lustick and Philip E. Tetlock

The simulation manifesto: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Scott E. Page

Rejecting false prophets and blind faith in numbers: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Lawrence A. Kuznar

Beware of Bureaucrats: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)

Heiko A. von der Gracht

Agent‐based models with qualitative data are thought experiments, not policy engines: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Robert Axtell and Joseph A. E. Shaheen

Hidden dangers in complex computational structures: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Joseph Edward Russo

How computer simulations enhance geopolitical decision‐making: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Amir Bagherpour

Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)

Jan Kwakkel and Willem Auping

Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Paul Schoemaker

Why we simulate: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Steven A. Sloman

Forecasts and decisions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Steven W. Popper, Robert J. Lempert, Paul K. Davis and Tim McDonald

A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Martin Kunc

Agent‐based modeling complements intuitive logics: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Shardul Sharad Phadnis

Has the COVID‐19 crisis changed our relationship to the future?

Camille Jahel, Robin Bourgeois, Denis Pesche, Marie de Lattre‐Gasquet and Etienne Delay

Scoping the future with theory‐driven models—Where’s the uncertainty?: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

David R. Mandel

Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?

Matthew J. Spaniol, Matthew J. Evans, Kristian Tranekær, Nicholas J. Rowland and Nick P. Atkinson

Double death of socialist future

Andrzej W. Nowak

Reviewing books for Futures & Foresight Science

Nicholas J. Rowland

The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute‐force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting

Ian S. Lustick and Philip E. Tetlock

Scenario planning as a strategy process to foster supply chain adaptability: theoretical framework and longitudinal case

Shardul Sharad Phadnis and Inga‐Lena Darkow

Volume 3, issue 1, 2021

Knowledge creation and mobility in and through futures workshops

Hanna Heino

Imagining democratic societies of the future: Insights from a foresight study

Lucia Vesnic‐Alujevic

Scenarios as narratives

Lee Roy Beach

Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior

Christoph Markmann, Alexander Spickermann, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Alexander Brem

On inquiry in futures and foresight science

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

Volume 2, issue 3-4, 2020

Thematic reflections on 18 expert commentaries

Paul Schoemaker

Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Johann Peter Murmann

The Mont Fleur scenarios and particular histories: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Pieter le Roux

Future‐ography

David J. Staley

Foresight, hindsight and postcolonial thought: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Eilidh Wright

Past‐future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Dilek Önkal and Shari De Baets

A few epistemological thoughts on linking history and scenarios: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Liam Fahey

Mechanics of the future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Heiko A. von der Gracht

Historian's pasts and scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

David MacLaren McDonald

History and scenario planning: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

James Derbyshire

How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

George Cairns

History can reject teleology; not so, scenario planning: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Thomas Donaldson

A cognitive science perspective on historical narratives and future scenarios: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

J. Edward Russo

The brakes of precedent and gears of emergence: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Adam V. Gordon

Scenarios as narrative past and future: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Lee Roy Beach

Intensifying intellectual traffic between history and futures studies: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol

A modeler's perspective: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Martin Kunc

Studies past and future of the past and future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

David R. Mandel

Can we accelerate learning from history? South Africa then and now: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

Philip E. Tetlock

How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning

Paul Schoemaker

A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19

George Cairns and George Wright

Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach

Gary Bowman and R. Bradley MacKay

Volume 2, issue 2, 2020

Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes

Elna Schirrmeister, Anne‐Louise Göhring and Philine Warnke

Scenario planning in science‐centric organizations

Rafael Ramirez, Ciaran McGinley and Jenni Rissanen

Does the facilitator of a scenario development activity need substantive knowledge of the focal topic?

George Wright and George Cairns

Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities

Jan Oliver Schwarz, René Rohrbeck and Bernhard Wach

Volume 2, issue 1, 2020

Can education transform?: Contradictions between the emerging future and the walled past

Sohail Inayatullah

Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research

Riccardo Vecchiato, Giampiero Favato, Francesco di Maddaloni and Hang Do

Determinants of organizational vigilance: Leadership, foresight, and adaptation in three sectors

Paul Schoemaker and George S. Day

Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game

Kerstin E. Cuhls