Working Papers Series

From Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department
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648: Credit Supply Shocks and the Moderating Effects of Leverage on Employment and Wages in Brazil

José Filho, Michel Alexandre and João Caldeira

647: When in Rome: lending to SMEs by foreign and domestic banks

Carlos Carvalho, Bruno Perdigão and Ricardo Schechtman

646: Labor Market Effects of Unemployment Insurance and UBI in Developing Economies

Alexandre Cunha, Guilherme Gallego, Marcelo Santos and Bernardus Doornik

645: Forecasting Out-of-Time Credit Scoring Model Risk

Valter Jr., Rafael Schiozer, Alan Genaro and Toni Santos

644: Is The Risk of The Opening Price Gap Priced?

Gustavo Araujo, Claudio Barbedo, Hugo Costa and Aziz Baruque

643: Beating the "Pros" with a Semi-structural Model of their own Inflation Forecasts

Sergio Alves, Waldyr Areosa and Carlos Carvalho

642: Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis and Macroprudential Policy Measures in Brazil

Fernanda Bandeira and José Ornelas

641: Plataformas de Investimento no Brasil: estrutura de mercado e precificação

Alex Caetité and Renato Gomes

640: Following the Informational Footsteps of the Supply Chain Tracks

Victor Monteiro, Diogo Guillen and Thiago Silva

639: The Causal Effects of Commodity Shocks

Alisson Curatola-Melo and Bernardo Guimaraes

638: An Organizational Structure Approach to Price Setting and Monetary Policy

Diogo Guillen and Victor Monteiro

637: Determinants of the Risk Premium in Brazilian Nominal Interest Rates

Gustavo Araujo, José Vicente and Wagner Gaglianone

636: The Nuanced Role of Government Credit on Monetary Policy Transmission

Leila Aghabarari, Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan and Bernardus Van Doornik

635: The Not So Quiet Revolution: signal and noise in central bank communication

Leonardo Ferreira, Caio Garzeri, Diogo Guillen, Antônio Lima and Victor Monteiro

634: Liquidity or Wealth? Consumption, Debt, and Financial Fragility After a Windfall

Andre Brunelli, Bruno Martins and Carlos Carvalho

633: The Impact of Climate Transition Risks on the Brazilian Financial Sector

Michel Alexandre, Angela Scala, Alessandro Caiani and Gilberto Lima

632: Competing for Loan Informal Seniority: Theory and Evidence

Theo Martins, Bernardo Ricca and Arthur Taburet

631: R&D Subsidy and Import Substitution: growing in the shadow of protection

Gustavo Souza and Gabriel Garber

630: When Low Rates Speak Loud: exchange rate dynamics under different interest rate regimes

Wagner Gaglianone, Jaqueline Marins and José Vicente

629: Macroeconomic Drivers of Brazil's Yield Curve

Wagner Gaglianone, Gustavo Araujo and José Vicente

628: Volatility and Under-Insurance in Economies with Limited Pledgeability: evidence from a frost shock

Victor Orestes, Thiago Silva and Henry Zhang

627: Gender Gap among Microentrepreneurs in Brazil

Ana Normando and José Ornelas

626: Labor Turnover, Information Production, and Bank Risk

Lars Norden, Bernardus Van Doornik and Weichao Wang

625: Do Inflation-Linked Bonds Predict Future Inflation? a reassessment using novel methodologies and instruments

Gustavo Araujo, José Bergallo and Flávio Val

624: Private Credit Bureaus and Positive Information Sharing: Effects on credit cost?

José Ornelas, Raquel Oliveira and Ricardo Schechtman

623: Optimal Inflation Targeting

Pedro Pereira

622: Enforcing Compliance with Labor Regulations and Firm Outcomes: evidence from Brazil

Thaline Prado, Marcelo Santos and Bernardus Van Doornik

621: Escaping Death: individual mobility and female mortality

Bernardus Van Doornik, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins

620: The Determinant Factors of Hedging and Speculation with Foreign Exchange Derivatives of Brazilian Private Firms

Fernando Oliveira

619: The Effect of Instant Payments on the Banking System

Rodrigo Gonzalez, Yiming Ma and Yao Zeng

618: Judicial Discretion, Credit, and the Real Economy

Pedro Amoni and Leonardo Alencar

617: The Disciplining Effect of Bank Supervision: evidence from SupTech

Hans Degryse, Cédric Huylebroek and Bernardus Van Doornik

616: Household Debt Composition and Labor Market Outcomes

Nelson Camanho, Toni Santos, Jesús Gorrín and Bernardo Ricca

615: How Does Central Bank Independence Influence the Relationship Between Inflation, Income Inequality and Poverty?

Bruno Tiberto

614: Consumer Loans, Heterogeneous Interest Rates, and Inequality

Marco Bonomo, Tiago Cavalcanti, Fernando Chertman, Amanda Fantinatti, Andrew Hannon and Cezar Santos

613: Weathering the Storm: how supply chains adapt to extreme climate events

Thiago Silva, Paulo Wilhelm and Solange Guerra

612: Housing and Fertility

Bernardus Van Doornik, Dimas Fazio, Tarun Ramadorai and Janis Skrastins

611: Firm-Level and Aggregate Effects of Cheaper Liquidity: evidence from factoring

Victor Orestes, Thiago Silva and Henry Zhang

610: Savings-and-Credit Contracts

Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins

609: Disentangling Brazilian TFP: the role of misallocation in recent economic cycles

Tomas Martinez and Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos

608: Measuring Inequality Using Electronic Payment Data

Carlos Piccioni, Saulo Bastos and Daniel Cajueiro

607: Macroprudential, Monetary Policy Synergies and Credit Supply: evidence from matched bank-firm loan-level data in Brazil

Rodrigo Gonzalez, Bernardus Van Doornik and João Barroso

606: Smoothing the New-Keynesian Capital Puzzle

Eduardo Amaral

605: Network Analysis of Exchange Rate Shocks: implications for financial stability in Brazil

Thiago Silva, Sergio Souza, Solange Guerra, Iuri Lazier and Rodrigo Miranda

604: Impact of the Disclosure of Survey Expectations of Macroeconomic Variables on Brazilian Interest Rates

Gustavo Araujo and Giancarlo Caoduro

603: Revisiting the Facts of Economic Growth: insights from assessing misallocation over 70 years for up to 100 countries

Tomas Martinez and Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos

602: Core Inflation in Brazil: past and present

Vicente Machado

601: COVID-19 and Credit Reallocation: evidence from bank branch lending in Brazil

Thiago Silva, Carlos Almeida, Solange Guerra and Benjamin Tabak

600: Payment Technology Complementarities and their Consequences in the Banking Sector: evidence from Brazil’s Pix

Matheus Sampaio and Jose Ornelas

599: Do Firms Need Cheaper Credit to Grow? investigating the effectiveness of subsidized earmarked loans

Daniel Grimaldi and Jose Ornelas