Working papers

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436: Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?

Frédérique Bec and Matteo Mogliani

435: Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows

Ludovic Gauvin, Cameron McLoughlin and Dennis Reinhardt

434: Belief shocks and the macroeconomy

Jacek Suda

433: Market-implied inflation and growth rates adversely affected by the Brent

Gilbert Cette and Marielle de Jong

432: Domino Effects when Banks Hoard Liquidity: The French network

Valère Fourel, J-C. H am, Dilyara Salakhova and S. Tavolaro

431: Age Biased Technical and Organisational Change, Training and Employment Prospects of Older Workers

Luc Behaghel, Eve Caroli and Muriel Roger

430: Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature

Karim Barhoumi, Olivier Darn and Laurent Ferrara

429: Social networks and wages in Senegal s formal sector

Nicoletta Berardi

428: Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries

Agn s B nassy-qu R and Guillaume Roussellet

427: Contagion Effects in the AftermaThéof Lehman s Collapse: Evidence from the US Financial Services Industry

N. Dumontaux and Adrian Pop

426: Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach

Olivier Darn, O. Levy-Rueff and Adrian Pop

425: More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession

Nicoletta Berardi, Erwan Gautier and Hervé Le Bihan

424: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy

Matthieu Bussiere, Simona Delle Chiaie and Tuomas Peltonen

423: Commodity price volatility and tax revenue: Evidence from developing countries

Helene Ehrhart and S. Guerineau

422: On the Evolution of Specie: Circulation and Weight Loss in 18th and 19th Century Coinage

Francois Velde

421: Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula

Anne-Laure Delatte and Claude Lopez

420: In Defense of Early Warning Signals

Matthieu Bussiere

419: Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries

Helene Ehrhart

418: Tax Revenue Instability in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies

Christian Hubert Ebeke and Helene Ehrhart

417: Surplus Consumption Ratio and Expected Stock Returns

I. Ghattassi

416: Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance

Gaetano Gaballo

415: The impact of a `soda tax' on prices. Evidence from French micro data

Nicoletta Berardi, Patrick Sevestre, M. Tepaut and A. Vigneron

414: Bilateral Exposures and Systemic Solvency Risk

Christian Gourieroux, Jean-Cyprien Héam and Alain Monfort

413: Optimal Monetary and Prudential Policies

Fabrice Collard, Harris Dellas, Behzad Diba and Olivier Loisel

412: Monetary Policy and Herd Behavior: Leaning Against Bubbles

Olivier Loisel, Aude Pommeret and Franck Portier

411: Bank Ownership and Credit Cycle: the lower sensitivity of public bank lending to the business cycle

T. Duprey

410: Foreign Entry and Spillovers with Technological Incompatibilities in the Supply Chain - Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics

Juan Carluccio and Thibault Fally

409: Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors

Marie Bessec

408: Export dynamics and sales at home

Nicolas Berman, Antoine Berthou and J. H ricourt

407: Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

Philippe Andrade, E. Ghysels and Julien Idier

406: Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?

Philippe Bacchetta, Kenza Benhima and Yannick Kalantzis

405: Did the crisis induce credit rationing for French SMEs?

Elisabeth Kremp and Patrick Sevestre

404: Households Debt Restructuring: Evidence from the French Experience

Henry Fraisse and P. Frout

403: Generalizing the Taylor Principle: New Comment

Jean Barthélemy and Magali Marx

402: Good Luck or Good Policy? An Expectational Theory of Macro-Volatility Switches

Gaetano Gaballo

401: Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models

Pamfili Antipa, Karim Barhoumi, V ronique Brunhes-Lesage and Olivier Darn

400: Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors

Frédérique Bec and Marie Bessec

399: Wage and Productivity differentials in Japan. The Role of Labor Market Mechanisms

Yannick Kalantzis, Ryo Kambayashi and Sebastien Lechevalier

398: Too-connected versus too-big-to-fail: banks network centrality and overnight interest rates

Silvia Gabrieli

397: Asset Pricing with Second-Order Esscher Transforms

Alain Monfort and Fulvio Pegoraro

396: Credit Ratings and Debt Crises

Matthieu Bussiere and Annukka Ristiniemi

395: A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates

Jean-Paul Renne

394: Bank leverage shocks and the macroeconomy: a new look in a data-rich environment

Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier and Dalibor Stevanovic

393: European Export Performance

Angela Cheptea, Lionel Fontagné and Soledad Zignago

392: Funding for green growth

Daniel Fuentes Castro

391: Equilibrium Risk Shifting and Interest Rate in an Opaque Financial System

Edouard Challe, Benoit Mojon and Xavier Ragot

390: Macro-Prudential Policy and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Denis Beau, Laurent Clerc and Benoit Mojon

389: Labour relations quality and productivity: An empirical analysis on French firms

Gilbert Cette, Nicolas Dromel, Rémy Lecat and Anne Paret

388: Financial Integration and External Sustainability

Pascal Towbin

387: Private Uncertainty and Multiplicity

Gaetano Gaballo