Working Papers (Old Series)

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1239: Privately optimal contracts and suboptimal outcomes in a model of agency costs

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1238: Leverage, investment, and optimal monetary policy

Filippo Occhino and Andrea Pescatori

1236: The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries

Pedro Amaral and Murat Tasci

1235: Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1234: Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1232: Bretton Woods, swap lines, and the Federal Reserve’s return to intervention

Michael Bordo, Owen Humpage and Anna Schwartz

1231: Measures beyond the college degree share to guide inter-regional comparisons and workforce development

Stephan Whitaker

1230: Land Bank 2.0: an empirical evaluation

Thomas Fitzpatrick and Stephan Whitaker

1229: Bridging the gap? Government subsidized lending and access to capital

Kristle Cortes and Josh Lerner

1228: The Panic of 1907

Ellis Tallman

1227: Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

1226: Did local lenders forecast the bust? Evidence from the real estate market

Kristle Cortes

1225: Learning and occupational sorting

Jonathan James

1224: The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: unemployment flows and the natural rate

Murat Tasci

1223: Who’s afraid of good governance? State fiscal crises, public pension underfunding, and the resistance to governance reform

Thomas Fitzpatrick and Amy B. Monahan

1222: Believe only what you see: credit rating agencies, structured finance, and bonds

Mahmoud Elamin

1221: Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks

James Nason and Ellis Tallman

1220R: Mortgage companies and regulatory arbitrage

Yuliya Demyanyk and Elena Loutskina

1219: A tractable estimator for general mixed multinomial logit models

Jonathan James

1218: The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility

Todd Clark and Francesco Ravazzolo

1217: Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle

Brent Meyer and Guhan Venkatu

1216: Estimating contract indexation in a financial accelerator model

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst, Alberto Ortiz and Matthias Paustian

1215: Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1214: Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record

Michael Bordo and Joseph Haubrich

1213: The relationship between city center density and urban growth or decline

Kyle Fee and Daniel Hartley

1212: Neighborhood dynamics and the distribution of opportunity

Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Carroll

1211: Diagnosing labor market search models: a multiple-shock approach

Kenneth Beauchemin and Murat Tasci

1210: Approximating high-dimensional dynamic models: sieve value function iteration

Peter Arcidiacono, Patrick Bayer, Federico Bugni and Jonathan James

1209: Bank balance sheet dynamics under a regulatory liquidity-coverage-ratio constraint

Lakshmi Balasubramanyan and David VanHoose

1208: Local average neighborhood effects from moving to opportunity

Dionissi Aliprantis and Francisca Richter

1207: Epilogue: foreign-exchange-market operations in the twenty-first century

Michael Bordo, Owen Humpage and Anna Schwartz

1206: Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

1205: Within-city variation in urban decline: the case of Detroit

Veronica Guerrieri, Daniel Hartley and Erik Hurst

1204: Privately optimal contracts and suboptimal outcomes in a model of agency costs

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1203: The impact of recovery efforts on residential vacancies

Ozgur Ergungor and Lisa Nelson

1202: How inflationary is an extended period of low interest rates?

Charles Carlstrom, Timothy Fuerst and Matthias Paustian

1201: Community-based well maintenance in rural Haiti

Dionissi Aliprantis

1134: A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation

Todd Clark and Taeyoung Doh

1133: The term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve

Mehmet Pasaogullari and Simeon Tsonevy

1132: Substitution between net and gross settlement systems: A concern for financial stability?

Ben Craig and Falko Fecht

1131: Bank mergers and deposit interest rate rigidity

Valeriya Dinger

1130: The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions

Timothy Bianco, Ryan Eiben, Dieter Gramlich, Mikhail Oet and Stephen J. Ong

1129: SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

Timothy Bianco, Ryan Eiben, Dieter Gramlich, Mikhail Oet, Stephen J. Ong and Jing Wang

1128: A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy

Kenneth Beauchemin and Saeed Zaman

1127: U.S. monetary-policy evolution and U.S. intervention

Michael Bordo, Owen Humpage and Anna Schwartz

1126: When should children start school?

Dionissi Aliprantis

1125: Ability matching and occupational choice

Jonathan James

1124: Liquidity and the threat of fraudulent assets

Yiting Li, Guillaume Rocheteau and Pierre-Olivier Weill

1123: The impact of vacant, tax-delinquent, and foreclosed property on sales prices of neighboring homes

Thomas Fitzpatrick and Stephan Whitaker

1122R: Assessing the evidence on neighborhood effects from Moving to Opportunity

Dionissi Aliprantis