Staff Reports

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926: The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany

Richard Bluhm and Maxim Pinkovskiy

925: Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

924: Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016

Alina K. Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. Steins

923: The Effect of Bank Monitoring on Loan Repayment

Nicola Branzoli and Fulvia Fringuellotti

922: The Myth of the Lead Arranger’s Share

Kristian Blickle, Quirin Fleckenstein, Sebastian Hillenbrand and Anthony Saunders

921: Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933

Kristian Blickle

920: Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index

Daniel Lewis, Karel Mertens, James Stock and Mihir Trivedi

919: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty

Gianluca Benigno and Jan Groen

918: The Market Events of Mid-September 2019

Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, Adam Copeland, Anna Kovner, Gabriele La Spada and Antoine Martin

917: The Overnight Drift

Nina Boyarchenko, Lars C. Larsen and Paul Whelan

916: Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK

Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe and Keshav Dogra

915: The Global Financial Resource Curse

Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf

914: Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks

Patrick A. Adams, Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko and Domenico Giannone

913: Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940s

Kenneth Garbade

912: Tuition, Debt, and Human Capital

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Vyacheslav Fos, Andres Liberman and Constantine Yannelis

911: The Great Equalizer: Medicare and the Geography of Consumer Financial Strain

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Maxim Pinkovskiy and Jacob Wallace

910: Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves

Gara Afonso, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

909: Cyber Risk and the U.S. Financial System: A Pre-Mortem Analysis

Thomas Eisenbach, Anna Kovner and Michael Lee

908: Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital

Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song

907: Information Management in Times of Crisis

Haelim Anderson and Adam Copeland

906: Federal Reserve Participation in Public Treasury Offerings

Kenneth Garbade

905: Micro and Macro Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri

Fatih Karahan, Kurt Mitman and Brendan Moore

904: Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis

Davide Melcangi

903: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics

Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko and Domenico Giannone

902: Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume

Daniel Lewis, Davide Melcangi and Laura Pilossoph

901: The Federal Funds Market over the 2007-09 Crisis

Adam Copeland

900: Endogenous Leverage and Default in the Laboratory

Marco Cipriani, Ana Fostel and Daniel Houser

899: Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability

Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci and Eric Young

898: Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets

Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio

897: Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?

Daniel Lewis, Christos Makridis and Karel Mertens

896: Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence

Sebastian Heise

895: Corporate Credit Provision

Nina Boyarchenko, Leonardo Elias and Philippe Mueller

894: A Dynamic Theory of Collateral Quality and Long-Term Interventions

Michael Lee and Daniel Neuhann

893: Online Estimation of DSGE Models

Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati and Frank Schorfheide

892: Who Sees the Trades? The Effect of Information on Liquidity in Inter-Dealer Markets

Rodney Garratt, Michael Lee, Antoine Martin and Robert Townsend

891: Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects

Daniel Lewis

890: Monetary policy and financial conditions: a cross-country study

Tobias Adrian, Fernando Duarte, Federico Grinberg and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli

889: A unified approach to measuring u*

Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni and Aysegul Sahin

888: Demographic origins of the startup deficit

Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley and Aysegul Sahin

887: Tying down the anchor: monetary policy rules and the lower bound on interest rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

886: Tick Size, Competition for Liquidity Provision, and Price Discovery: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

Michael Fleming, Giang Nguyen and Francisco Ruela

885: Money, credit, monetary policy, and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Lucrezia Reichlin

884: Deconstructing the yield curve

Richard Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov

883: Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities

Gizem Kosar, Tyler Ransom and Wilbert van der Klaauw

882: Trends in household debt and credit

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, Lauren Thomas and Wilbert van der Klaauw

881: On binscatter

Matias Cattaneo, Richard Crump, Max Farrell and Yingjie Feng

880: Complexity in large U.S. banks

Linda Goldberg and April Meehl

879: The Long and Short of It: The Post-Crisis Corporate CDS Market

Nina Boyarchenko, Anna Costello and Or Shachar

878: Rational inattention in hiring decisions

Sushant Acharya and Shu Lin Wee

877: Monetary policy frameworks and the effective lower bound on interest rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams