Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States

Alena Bičáková, Guido Matias Cortes, Kelly Foley (), Jacopo Mazza and Peter McHenry
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Kelly Foley: University of Saskatchewan

No 18244, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement for 1977-2023, we explore two important, yet understudied facets of the pattern of countercyclical post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. First, we show that economic downturns are associated with higher enrollment probabilities at both 2- and 4-year colleges among young men, but only at 2-year institutions among young women. Second, we show that the overall increase in enrollment propensities during downturns is primarily driven by persistence (i.e., changes in enrollment among individuals with prior PSE participation), rather than matriculation (i.e., new enrollments). However, higher unemployment rates increase matriculation probabilities at 2-year colleges among 18-year-old men and women, and at 4-year colleges among individuals in their early 20s. Our findings improve our understanding of the dimensions along which aggregate economic fluctuations induce changes in human capital acquisition.

Keywords: 2- and 4-year institutions; business cycles; college enrollment; persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 I23 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lma
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Related works:
Working Paper: Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States (2025)
Working Paper: Unpacking the countercyclicality of post-secondary enrollment in the United States (2025)
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