CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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14146: Equilibrium Counterfactuals

Gilles Chemla and Christopher Hennessy

14145: The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense R&D, Productivity and International Spillovers

John van Reenen, Enrico Moretti and Claudia Steinwender

14144: Optimal Taxation with Homeownership and Wealth Inequality

Pietro Reichlin and Nicola Borri

14143: Tech Clusters

Frederic Robert-Nicoud and William Kerr

14142: Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?

Raphael Schoenle and Jean-Paul L'Huillier

14141: Social Interaction Methods

Eleonora Patacchini, Chih-Sheng Hsieh and Xu Lin

14140: Checking if the Straitjacket Fits

Michael R. Wickens and Adrian Pagan

14139: Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility

Nezih Guner, Ezgi Kaya and Sánchez-Marcos, Virginia

14138: The Wheels of Change: Technology Adoption, Millwrights, and Persistence in Britain’s Industrialization

Karine van der Beek, Joel Mokyr and Assaf Sarid

14137: Globalization, Redistribution, and the Size of Government

Jonathan Ostry, Raphael Espinoza and Xiaoxiao Zhang

14136: Technology Boom, Labor Reallocation, and Human Capital Depreciation

Johan Hombert and Adrien Matray

14135: The Mental Health Effects of Retirement

Jan C. van Ours and Matteo Picchio

14134: Bond Funds and Credit Risk

Amil Dasgupta, Jaewon Choi and Ji Yeol Jimmy Oh

14133: IO for Export(s)

Mrázová, Monika and J. Peter Neary

14132: Beveridgean Unemployment Gap

Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

14131: Do Temporary Demand Shocks have Long-Term Effects for Startups?

Hans Hvide and Tom G. Meling

14130: Equity Issue Methods and dilution

Mike Burkart and Hongda Zhong

14129: Delineating urban areas using building density

Laurent Gobillon, Marie-Pierre De Bellefon, Pierre-Philippe Combes, Gilles Duranton and Clément Gorin

14128: The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets*

Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr and Emily Liu

14127: Priority Rules

Hans Degryse and Nikolaos Karagiannis

14126: Political Connections and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Ugo Panizza, Maurizio Bussolo, Francesca de Nicola and Richard Varghese

14125: The methane footprint of nations: Stylized facts from a global panel dataset

Joseph Francois, Fernández-Amador, Octavio, Doris Oberdabernig and Patrick Tomberger

14124: Comparative European Institutions and the Little Divergence, 1385-1800

Antonio Henriques and Nuno Palma

14123: Learning About Demand Abroad From Wholesalers: a B2B Analysis

Hylke Vandenbussche, William Connell Garcia and Emmanuel Dhyne

14122: Matched trade at the firm level and the micro origins of international business-cycle comovement

Richard Friberg and Mark Sanctuary

14121: A Theory of Economic Unions

Jaume Ventura, Giacomo Ponzetto and Gino Gancia

14120: Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations

Gaetano Gaballo and Ryan Chahrour

14119: All the bottles in one basket? Diversification and product portfolio composition

Richard Friberg

14118: Capital and Income Inequality: An Aggregate-Demand Complementarity

Florin Bilbiie, Känzig, Diego and Paolo Surico

14117: Cash Flow News and Stock Price Dynamics

Allan Timmermann, Davide Pettenuzzo and Riccardo Sabbatucci

14116: Social Insurance, Information Revelation, and Lack of Commitment

Luigi Iovino and Mikhail Golosov

14115: The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns

Alan Taylor and Josh Davis

14114: Using Cost Minimization to Estimate Markups

Jordi Jaumandreu and Ulrich Doraszelski

14113: A Generalized Model of Advertised Sales

Sandro Shelegia and Christopher Wilson

14112: Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?

Allan Timmermann, Ritong Qu and Yinchu Zhu

14111: The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation

,

14110: The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

14109: Affirmative Action and Pre-College Human Capital

Mitra Akhtari and P. Laliberté, Jean-William

14108: Consumption Insurance Against Wage Risk: Family Labor Supply and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation

Dirk Krueger and Chunzan Wu

14107: Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns: a Score Driven State Space Model

Ivan Petrella, Davide Delle Monache and Fabrizio Venditti

14106: Local Autonomy and Government Spending Multipliers: Evidence from European Regions

Evi Pappa, Akos Valentinyi and Markus Brueckner

14105: Benchmark interest rates when the government is risky

Mikhail Chernov, Patrick Augustin, Lukas Schmid and Dongho Song

14104: On the Relationship Between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries

Evi Pappa, Markus Brueckner and Wojtek Paczos

14103: Searching Forever After

Yair Antler and Benjamin Bachi

14102: The innovation premium to soft skills in low-skilled occuptions

Rachel Griffith, Philippe Aghion, Richard Blundell and Antonin Bergeaud

14101: Brexit: Dynamic Voting with an Irreversible Option

Benny Moldovanu and Frank Rosar

14100: Cheating with (recursive) models

Kfir Eliaz, Ran Spiegler and Yair Weiss

14099: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Auction Cycles of Eurozone Sovereign Debt

Roel Beetsma and Josha van Spronsen

14098: Does Money Talk? Market Discipline through Selloffs and Boycotts

Mariassunta Giannetti, , and Nickolay Gantchev

14097: Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil

Allan Timmermann, Rafael Burjack and Ritong Qu

14096: Taxation and the External Wealth of Nations: Evidence from Bilateral Portfolio Holdings

Harry Huizinga, Maximilian Todtenhaupt, Johannes Voget and Wolf Wagner

14095: Embedded supervision: how to build regulation into blockchain finance

Raphael Auer

14094: A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Timo Boppart, Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Peter J. Klenow and Huiyu Li

14093: In Praise of Snapshots

Ravi Kanbur

14092: From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

Juan F Jimeno and Henrique Basso

14091: Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Emily Blanchard, Chad Bown and Davin Chor

14090: Extracting Implicit Country Weights in ECB’s Monetary Policy

Tavares, José and Pereira, Márcia

14089: The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire

Adam Brzezinski, Yao Chen, Nuno Palma and Felix Ward

14088: Naivete and Sophistication in Initial and Repeated Play in Games

Nagore Iriberri and García-Pola, Bernardo

14087: Imperfect Information, Social Norms, and Beliefs in Networks

Yves Zenou and Marc Sommer

14086: School Tracking and Mental Health

Alexandra Roulet, Rikhard Petri Bôckerman, Mika Haapanen and Christopher Jepsen

14085: Rules and Commitment in Communication

,, Guilaume Frechette and Jacopo Perego

14084: The causal effect of education on chronic health conditions in the UK

Carol Propper, Katharina Janke, David Johnston and Michael Shields

14083: Reported MPC and Unobserved Heterogeneity

Luigi Pistaferri

14082: Gender Gaps in Education

Graziella Bertocchi and Monica Bozzano

14081: Economic growth, sectoral structures, and environmental methane footprints

Joseph Francois, Fernández-Amador, Octavio, Doris Oberdabernig and Patrick Tomberger

14080: Sector and Importer Determinants of Prices for Traded Intermediates

Joseph Francois, Eddy Bekkers and Miriam Manchin

14079: Trade Wars: Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition

Joseph Francois, Eddy Bekkers, Doug R Nelson and Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

14078: Bargaining at Retail Stores: Evidence from Vienna

Sandro Shelegia and Joshua Sherman

14077: Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

14076: WTO'ing a Resolution to the China Subsidy Problem

Chad Bown and Jennifer Hillman

14075: Overcoming Free-Riding in Bandit Games

Sven Rady, Hörner, Johannes and Nicolas Klein

14074: Inflation at Risk

López-Salido, J David and Francesca Loria

14073: Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate

Benjamin Born, Francesco D'Ascanio, Müller, Gernot and Johannes Pfeifer

14072: Austerity and Public debt Dynamics

Carlo Favero and ,

14071: Aristocratic Privilege. Exploiting “Good†Institutions

Kim Oosterlinck, Loredana Ureche-Rangau and Jacques-Marie Vaslin

14070: High-Quality Versus Low-Quality Growth in Turkey - Causes and Consequences

Daron Acemoglu and Üçer, Murat

14069: Measuring and explaining management in schools: New approaches using public data

Daniela Scur, Clare Leaver and Renata Lemos

14068: The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime

Randi Hjalmarsson and Anna Bindler

14067: The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions

Randi Hjalmarsson and Anna Bindler

14066: Competing Models

Andrea Prat, Montiel Olea , José Luis, Pietro Ortoleva and Mallesh Pai

14065: Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets

Jeremy Lawson, Abigail Watt, Carolina Martinez and Rong Fu

14064: Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?

Barbara Rossi

14063: Lemons and Peaches: A (Robust) Multi-stage Buying Mechanism with Multiple Applications

Hans Gersbach, Akaki Mamageishvili and Oriol Tejada

14062: Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks

Kurt Mitman, Sergio de Ferra and Federica Romei

14061: Do doctors improve the health care of their parents? Evidence from admission lotteries

Bas van der Klaauw, Elisabeth Artmann and Hessel Oosterbeek

14060: Auctions with Unknown Capacities: Understanding Competition among Renewables

Gerard Llobet and Natalia Fabra

14059: “Too young to dieâ€. Deprivation measures combining poverty and premature mortality

Jean-Marie Baland, Benoît Decerf and Guilhem Cassan

14058: The Origination and Distribution of Money Market Instruments: Sterling Bills of Exchange during the First Globalisation

Olivier Accominotti, Delio Lucena and Stefano Ugolini

14057: The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near-Cashless Credit Economies

Shengxing Zhang and Ricardo Lagos

14056: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Education Outcomes in Jordan

Mohamed Saleh, Ragui Assaad and ,

14055: Insolvency-Illiquidity, Macro Externalities and Regulation

Ester Faia

14054: Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Switzerland

Brülhart, Marius, Jonathan Gruber, Matthias Krapf and Kurt Schmidheiny

14053: US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers

Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem

14052: Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies

David Seim, Emmanuel Saez and Benjamin Schoefer

14051: On Money As a Latent Medium of Exchange

Shengxing Zhang and Ricardo Lagos

14050: Is There a Zero Lower Bound? The Effects of Negative Policy Rates on Banks and Firms

Mariassunta Giannetti, Carlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon and Sarah Holton

14049: Electoral Sentencing Cycles

Roberto Galbiati, David Abrams and Arnaud Philippe

14048: Rules versus Discretion in Bank Resolution

Lucy White and Ansgar Walther

14047: Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Lutz Kilian