Working Paper Series

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239: Temporary shocks and unavoidable transitions to a high-unemployment regime

Wouter J. den Haan

238: The impact of monetary union on trade prices

Richard E. Baldwin, Robert Anderton and Daria Taglioni

237: Growth expectations; capital flows and international risk sharing

Marcus Miller, Olli Castren and Roger Stiegert

236: Swiss monetary targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis

George Rich

235: Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data

Claudio Morana and Nuno Cassola

234: Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

Miguel Leon-Ledesma and Peter McAdam

233: The natural real rate of interest in the Euro area

Nicola Giammarioli and Natacha Valla

232: Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?

Efrem Castelnuovo

231: Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero

Günter Coenen, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland

230: The Euro area financial system: structure, integration and policy initiatives

Philipp Hartmann, Simone Manganelli and Angela Maddaloni

229: How does the ECB target inflation?

Paolo Surico

228: Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data

Matt Klaeffing

227: Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment

Tommaso Monacelli

226: The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting fnflation risks

Lutz Kilian and Simone Manganelli

225: Productivity and the ('Synthetic') Euro-dollar exchange rate

Bernd Schnatz and Chiara Osbat

224: The rise of the Yen vis-a-vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

Bernd Schnatz, Chiara Osbat and Rasmus Rueffer

223: Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge

Klaus Adam

222: Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States

Klaus Adam and Mario Padula

221: Estimating risk premia in money market rates

Rasmus Pilegaard, Alain Durré and Snorre Evjen

220: The allocation of competencies in an international union: a positive analysis

Michele Ruta

219: Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through

Robert Anderton

218: The Zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan

Günter Coenen and Volker Wieland

217: The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change

Julian Messina

216: The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment

Roberto A. De Santis and Ca'Zorzi, Michele

215: Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries

Holger Gleich

214: On the selection of forecasting models

Lutz Kilian and Atsushi Inoue

213: Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves

Julian Morgan and Silvia Fabiani

212: Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements

Martin Scheicher and Ernst Glatzer

211: Self-control and savings

Vidal, Jean-Pierre and Philippe Michel

210: Anticipated Ramsey reforms and the uniform taxation principle: the role of international financial markets

Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie and Martin Uribe

209: A framework for collateral risk control determination

Didier Cossin, Aunon-Nerin, Daniel and Fernando Gonzales

208: Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data

Andrew Ang and Angela Maddaloni

207: A comprehensive model on the Euro overnight rate

Flemming Reinhardt Würtz

206: A comprehensive model on the Euro overnight rate

Barbara Roffia and Dieter Gerdesmeier

205: Real exchange rate in an inter-temporal n-country-model with incomplete markets

Benoit Mercereau

204: Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns

Kevin Sheppard, Robert F. Engle and Lorenzo Cappiello

203: Myopic loss aversion; disappointment aversion; and the equity premium puzzle

Livio Stracca and David Fielding

202: Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector

Alessandro Calza, João Sousa and Marta Manrique Simon

201: Euro area inflation persistence

Nicoletta Batini

200: Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?

Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher

199: Time variation in the tail behaviour of bund futures returns

Christian Upper and Thomas Werner

198: Extracting risk neutral probability densities by fitting implied volatility smiles: some methodological points and an applicaion to the 3M Euribor futures option prices

Allan B. Andersen and Tom Wagener

197: A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary poicy implementation

Christian Ewerhart

196: Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

Lutz Kilian and Silvia Goncalves

195: In-Sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?

Lutz Kilian and Atsushi Inoue

194: Sensitivity analysis of volatility - a new tool for risk management

Simone Manganelli, Vladimiro Ceci and Walter Vecchiato

193: Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline

Jose Marin

192: Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?

Jorge Sicilia and Perez-Quiros, Gabriel (Gabriel Perez Quiros)

191: Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management

Ludger Schuknecht and Felix Eschenbach

190: Monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates: a review

Anthony Yates