Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War

Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken

No 6298, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination?s effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.

Keywords: Assassinations; Institutions; War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F52 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War (2009)
Working Paper: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War (2007)
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