House Price Expectations

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen and Felix Weinhardt

No 1162, SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research from DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

Abstract: This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in hous ing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household sur vey, past sale offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market character istics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Keywords: housing; house price expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 p.
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1162

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