Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?

James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff

No 25-11, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: No, first estimates of state GDP growth are not rational forecasts, except for Georgia. Revisions to first estimates of state-level GDP growth tend to be biased, large, and/or predictable using information known at the time of the first estimate.

Keywords: data revisions; real-time data; state GDP; forecast efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2025-04-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202511

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