Reserves, Sanctions and Tariffs in a Time of Uncertainty

Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito

No 34177, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of individual central bank holdings of international reserves, as shares of gold, dollar, euro, pound, yen and yuan, over the 1999-2022 period. We augment standard economic determinants of size, exchange rate volatility, currency pegs and bilateral trade with bilateral political/economic variables such as disagreement in UN voting, military alliances, and financial and trade sanctions. These variables augment uncertainty measures such as global Economic Policy Uncertainty, US monetary and trade policy uncertainty, and the VIX. In addition, we investigate whether the US imposition of tariffs in 2018 had any measurable impact on dollar and other holdings. We conclude that financial sanctions and trade policy uncertainty have a statistically and economically significant effect on holdings of the US dollar. US tariffs had an economically – but not statistically – significant impact on shares of foreign exchange reserves: dollar shares fell by 2.1% and other shares rose by 0.8%. These findings can inform the debate regarding some of the benefits and costs of using such geo-economic policies.

JEL-codes: F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ifn, nep-mon and nep-opm
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