The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

No 35168, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. We then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity. We find that the supply- and demand-side effects of the immigration surge roughly cancel out, causing a negligible response of inflation.

JEL-codes: E21 E22 E31 F22 J11 J15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-dge and nep-mon
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Related works:
Chapter: The Postpandemic US Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications (2026)
Working Paper: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications (2025)
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