Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Karl Whelan and Tadgh Hegarty

No 202305, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Keywords: Sports forecasting; Betting markets; Market efficiency; Asian handicap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 L83 Z20 Z21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2023-02
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