Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

American Economic Review, 2014, vol. 104, issue 5, 278-83

Abstract: We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005–2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

JEL-codes: J31 J43 O13 Q11 Q12 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.278
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
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