Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

No 19808, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

JEL-codes: J2 J31 J43 O1 O13 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-for, nep-lma and nep-mig
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Published as Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 278-83, May.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
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