Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

Working Papers from Economic Growth Center, Yale University

Abstract: We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harveststage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

Keywords: wages; forecasting; migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J2 O12 O13 O15 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2014-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp1036.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:egc:wpaper:1036

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