Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

No 162421, Center Discussion Papers from Yale University, Economic Growth Center

Abstract: We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harveststage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

Keywords: International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14
Date: 2014-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/162421/files/cdp1036.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:yaleeg:162421

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162421

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