Economic Bulletin Boxes

2017 - 2025

From European Central Bank
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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2020, volume 1

Business outlook surveys as indicators of euro area real business investment

Eduardo Maqui

Bond market liquidity and swap market efficiency – what role does the repo market play?

Jan Philipp Fritsche, Michael Grill and Claudia Lambert

Integration of non-euro area central and eastern European EU countries in global value chains, export dynamics, and business cycle synchronisation with the euro area

Francesco Chiacchio and Andrejs Semjonovs

Breaking the “chain effect” of tariffs – foreign trade zones in the time of protectionism

Virginia Di Nino, Simone Cigna and Srdan Tatomir

US yield curve inversion and financial market signals of recession

Johannes Gräb and Stephanie Titzck

Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for global investment and trade

Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti and Martino Ricci

2019, volume 9

Euro area foreign direct investment since 2018: the role of special purpose entities

Virginia Di Nino

2019, volume 8

The review of draft budgetary plans for 2020 – some implications for a reform of fiscal governance

Sebastian Hauptmeier, Stephan Haroutunian and Nadine Leiner-Killinger

Export activities of euro area SMEs: insights from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE)

Katarzyna Bańkowska, Annalisa Ferrando and Juan Angel García

Recent developments of social security contributions and minimum wages in the euro area

Ferdinand Dreher, Omiros Kouvavas and Gerrit Koester

Indicators of labour market conditions in the euro area

Vasco Botelho and António Dias Da Silva

Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 31 July to 29 October 2019

Luca Baldo and Denis Lungu

Market reaction to the two-tier system

Luca Baldo, Cristina Coutinho and Nick Ligthart

The effects of tariff hikes in a world of global value chains

Philipp Meinen

2019, volume 7

Price-setting behaviour: insights from a survey of large firms

Richard Morris and Rupert de Vincent-Humphreys

A stylised tracer for labour market cycles in the euro area based on assessments by corporate executives

Vasco Botelho

Developments in the services sector and its relationship with manufacturing

Magnus Forsells, Neale Kennedy and Lisa Marie Timm

Goodbye EONIA, welcome €STR!

Pascal Nicoloso and Vladimir Tsonchev

2019, volume 6

How do profits shape domestic price pressures in the euro area?

Elke Hahn

Household income risk over the business cycle

Maarten Dossche and Jacob Hartwig

How does the current employment expansion in the euro area compare with historical patterns?

Vasco Botelho and António Dias Da Silva

Domestic versus foreign factors behind the fall in euro area industrial production

Roberto De Santis and Srečko Zimic

Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 17 April to 30 July 2019

Annette Kamps and Christian Lizarazo

The September policy package

Julian Schumacher and Ine Van Robays

2019, volume 5

Priorities for fiscal policies under the 2019 European Semester

Stephan Haroutunian, Sebastian Hauptmeier and Nadine Leiner-Killinger

Country-specific recommendations for economic policies under the 2019 European Semester

Nico Zorell

What is behind the change in the gap between services price inflation and goods price inflation?

Luigi Ferrara

Sources of economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: a machine learning approach

Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Dominik Hirschbühl, Luca Onorante and Lorena Saiz

Services trade liberalisation and global imbalances: a critical review of the empirical evidence

Georgios Georgiadis and Andrej Mijakovic

What is behind the decoupling of global activity and trade?

Alina Bobasu, Lucia Quaglietti and Ana-Simona Manu

2019, volume 4

Rent inflation in the euro area since the crisis

Moreno Roma

Confidence and business investment

Malin Andersson and Benjamin Mosk

Definitions and characteristics of soft patches in the euro area

Mattia Duma, Magnus Forsells and Neale Kennedy

Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 30 January to 16 April 2019

Iwona Durka and Annette Kamps

The decrease in euro area net financial outflows in 2018: foreign direct investment retrenchment and portfolio investment slowdown

Michael Fidora and Martin Schmitz

2019, volume 3

The predictive power of real M1 for real economic activity in the euro area

Alberto Musso

Exploring the factors behind the 2018 widening in euro area corporate bond spreads

Lena Boneva, Gregory Kidd and Ine Van Robays

Emerging market economy currencies: the role of global risk, the US dollar and domestic forces

Massimo Ferrari Minesso

What the maturing tech cycle signals for the global economy

Marcel Tirpák

2019, volume 2

The European Commission’s 2019 assessment of macroeconomic imbalances and progress on reforms

Nick Ligthart

Interest rate-growth differential and government debt dynamics

Cristina Checherita-Westphal

A new method for the package holiday price index in Germany and its impact on HICP inflation rates

Martin Eiglsperger

New features in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices: analytical groups, scanner data and web-scraping

Martin Eiglsperger

Employment growth and GDP in the euro area

Vasco Botelho and António Dias Da Silva

Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 31 October 2018 to 29 January 2019

Toshi Nakamura and Pamina Karl

Characterising the current expansion across non-euro area advanced economies: where do we go from here?

Alina Bobasu, Mariarosaria Comunale, Ramon Gomez-Salvador and Lucia Quaglietti

2019, volume 1

The mechanical impact of changes in oil price assumptions on projections for euro area HICP energy inflation

Mario Porqueddu

Driving factors of and risks to domestic demand in the euro area

Malin Andersson and Benjamin Mosk

Recent developments in oil prices

Dominic Quint

2018, volume 8

An assessment of draft budgetary plans for 2019

Stephan Haroutunian, Sebastian Hauptmeier and Nadine Leiner-Killinger

Recent developments in the wage drift in the euro area

Gerrit Koester and Justine Guillochon

Compositional changes behind the growth in euro area employment during the recovery

Katalin Bodnár

Understanding the slowdown in growth in 2018

Maarten Dossche and Jaime Martinez-Martin

Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 1 August to 30 October 2018

Mª Carmen Castillo Lozoya and Elvira Fioretto

Emerging market vulnerabilities – a comparison with previous crises

Livia Chiţu and Dominic Quint