National Institute UK Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreward: Othordoxy Lost and Found pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2022 pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-48: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Quantitative easing, government debt management and debt interest pp. 10-12: William Allen
Box B: Inflation and public finances pp. 14-16: Huw Dixon, Hailey Low and Urvish Patel
Box C: Increasing mortgage rates, a cost-of-living crisis and stamp duty cut: What's next for the UK housing market? pp. 23-29: Urvish Patel
Box D: Exchange rate changes and the economy pp. 37-44: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 49-69: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box E: Projecting the Impact of Peak Interest Rates on Variable Rate Mortgages pp. 70-72: Max Mosley
Box F: The Northern Ireland Protocol – Lost Opportunities for Northern Ireland? pp. 73-75: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 76-84: Niesr

Foreward: A Risky Present pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2022 pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook pp. 6-30: Rory Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Full employment and the 'office of hope' pp. 15-18: Bill Wells
Box B: A serious monetary policy failure – how policy-makers let the inflation cat out of the bag pp. 23-24: Andrew Sentance
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 31-60: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box C: Households savings amid the cost-of-living crisis pp. 34-36: Max Mosley
Box D: Northern Ireland's productivity problem pp. 44-49: David Jordan
Box E: No quick respite from the cost-of-living crisis pp. 57-60: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst and Max Mosley
Forecast tables pp. 61-69: Niesr

Foreward: Sailing in Treacherous Seas pp. 1: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook pp. 6-36: Rory Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: The economic consequences of the Ukraine War for UK household incomes pp. 7-8: Urvish Patel
Box B: How likely are we to see a major recession in 2022? pp. 21-24: Peter Dixon
Box C: Deindustrialisation in the UK pp. 30-36: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Xuxin Mao
Outlook for the devolved nations, English regions, and UK households pp. 37-55: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box D: Measuring the effect of the cost-of-living crisis on low-income households pp. 56-57: Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 58-66: Niesr

Foreward: bridge to normality pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Covid-19 leaves inflation in its wake pp. 5-28: Cyrille Lenoel, Rory Macqueen, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Improved trade balance with the European Union raises challenging Brexit questions pp. 7-10: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: A Targeted Furlough Scheme to help the economy in downturns pp. 14-16: Paul Mortimer-Lee, Christoph Görtz and Danny McGowan
Box C: Gas prices and price controls pp. 24-26: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Urvish Patel
UK Regional Outlook: Autumn 2021 pp. 29-40: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box D: National Institute Regional Modelling System (NiReMS): Methodology and Updates pp. 41-44: Arnab Bhattacharjee and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 45-53: Niesr

Foreward: Rip it up and Start Again pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4-5: Niesr
Shortages and fiscal tightening threaten economic recovery from Covid-19 pp. 6-32: Cyrille Lenoel, Rory Macqueen and Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box A: The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: levelling the EU carbon playing field pp. 11-12: Alexandra Dumitru
Box B: Furlough and household financial distress during the Covid-19 pandemic - insights for future lockdowns pp. 14-15: Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan and Mallory Yeromonahos
Box C: Wage pressures: a perspective from online job advertisements pp. 17-18: Jack Kennedy
Box D: The new employment tax pp. 29-31: Paul Mortimer-Lee
UK Regional Outlook: Autumn 2021 pp. 33-40: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Tibor Szendrei, Andrew Aitken, Larissa Marioni, Ana Rincon Aznar and Manuel Tong
Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention pp. 41-44: Arnab Bhattacharjee and Tibor Szendrei
Appendix pp. 45-53: Niesr and Appendix

Foreward pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 5-36: Niesr
UK Regional Outlook pp. 37-50: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Elena Lisauskaite, Adrian Pabst and Tibor Tzendrei
Appendix pp. 51-59: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Brisk but not better growth pp. 5-32: Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory Macqueen
UK sectoral output pp. 33-41: Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory Macqueen
UK regional outlook pp. 42-57: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Elena Lisauskaite and Adrian Pabst
Appendix pp. 58-66: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Brexit Britain in Covid recovery ward pp. 5-20: Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory Macqueen
UK sectoral output pp. 21-23: Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young
UK regional outlook pp. 24-33: Arnab Bhattacharjee and Elena Lisauskaite
Appendix pp. 34-42: Niesr