National Institute UK Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreward pp. 3-4: Adrian Pabst
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023 pp. 5-40: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-40: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley
Box A: Public Confidence in the Bank of England pp. 16-22: Ana Carolina Garriga
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 41-76: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Box B: Productivity Paradox: Challenges and Opportunities pp. 66-73: Adam Yousef
Forecast tables pp. 77-85: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2023 pp. 5-44: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-44: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Underlying Inflation in the United Kingdom pp. 12-19: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Paula Bejarano Carbo
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 45-82: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei
Spotlight 1: The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Housing Costs pp. 53-59: Max Mosley and Rosen Chowdhury
Box B: The Windsor Framework: What it is and what it might do pp. 73-76: Katy Hayward and John McStravick
Forecast tables pp. 83-91: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 5-39: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2023 pp. 5-43: Niesr
Box A: Is the public sector too large? pp. 9-13: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: Economics and population change pp. 19-21: Norma Cohen
Box C: Finance, business investment and productivity pp. 25-29: Issam Samiri
Box D: Public-sector wages: A view from economic theory pp. 38-41: Pedro Gomes
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 44-64: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 65-73: Niesr

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2023 pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-39: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Monetary policy and inflation in the second Elizabethan age pp. 13-16: Hailey Low and Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: UK manufacturing post Brexit and Covid-19 pp. 26-30: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box C: Are the Pay Review Bodies fit for purpose in 2023? pp. 33-36: Peter Dolton
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 39-60: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Appendix A pp. 61: Niesr
Forecast tables pp. 62-70: Niesr

Foreward: Othordoxy Lost and Found pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2022 pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-48: Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Quantitative easing, government debt management and debt interest pp. 10-12: William Allen
Box B: Inflation and public finances pp. 14-16: Huw Dixon, Hailey Low and Urvish Patel
Box C: Increasing mortgage rates, a cost-of-living crisis and stamp duty cut: What's next for the UK housing market? pp. 23-29: Urvish Patel
Box D: Exchange rate changes and the economy pp. 37-44: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 49-69: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box E: Projecting the Impact of Peak Interest Rates on Variable Rate Mortgages pp. 70-72: Max Mosley
Box F: The Northern Ireland Protocol – Lost Opportunities for Northern Ireland? pp. 73-75: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 76-84: Niesr

Foreward: A Risky Present pp. 3-4: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2022 pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook pp. 6-30: Rory Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Full employment and the 'office of hope' pp. 15-18: Bill Wells
Box B: A serious monetary policy failure – how policy-makers let the inflation cat out of the bag pp. 23-24: Andrew Sentance
Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 31-60: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box C: Households savings amid the cost-of-living crisis pp. 34-36: Max Mosley
Box D: Northern Ireland's productivity problem pp. 44-49: David Jordan
Box E: No quick respite from the cost-of-living crisis pp. 57-60: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst and Max Mosley
Forecast tables pp. 61-69: Niesr

Foreward: Sailing in Treacherous Seas pp. 1: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute UK Economic Outlook pp. 4-5: Niesr
UK Economic Outlook pp. 6-36: Rory Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: The economic consequences of the Ukraine War for UK household incomes pp. 7-8: Urvish Patel
Box B: How likely are we to see a major recession in 2022? pp. 21-24: Peter Dixon
Box C: Deindustrialisation in the UK pp. 30-36: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Xuxin Mao
Outlook for the devolved nations, English regions, and UK households pp. 37-55: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box D: Measuring the effect of the cost-of-living crisis on low-income households pp. 56-57: Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 58-66: Niesr

Foreward: bridge to normality pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Covid-19 leaves inflation in its wake pp. 5-28: Cyrille Lenoel, Rory Macqueen, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte
Box A: Improved trade balance with the European Union raises challenging Brexit questions pp. 7-10: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: A Targeted Furlough Scheme to help the economy in downturns pp. 14-16: Paul Mortimer-Lee, Christoph Görtz and Danny McGowan
Box C: Gas prices and price controls pp. 24-26: Paul Mortimer-Lee and Urvish Patel
UK Regional Outlook: Autumn 2021 pp. 29-40: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei
Box D: National Institute Regional Modelling System (NiReMS): Methodology and Updates pp. 41-44: Arnab Bhattacharjee and Tibor Szendrei
Forecast tables pp. 45-53: Niesr