National Institute UK Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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2025, issue 18

Forward pp. 3

Adrian Pabst

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2025 – Summary pp. 4-5

Niesr

The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-38

Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low and Stephen Millard

Box A: UK Inflation: The energy price surprise pp. 9-11

Francis Breedon

Box B: The Effects of the Rise in NICs pp. 12-17

Ed Cornforth

Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 39-55

Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Forecast tables pp. 56-63

Niesr

2025, issue 17

Foreward: A Tale of Two Halves pp. 3-4

Adrian Pabst

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2025 – Summary pp. 5-6

Niesr

The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-42

Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley

Box A: An Alternative UK Economic Forecast pp. 11-16

Jane Binner, Huw Dixon, Barry Jones, Logan Kelly and Jon Tepper

Box B: Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings pp. 17-21

Meg Tulloch

Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-85

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Box C: Mind the Regional Transport Connectivity Gap pp. 55-62

Larissa da Silva Marioni

Forecast tables pp. 86-94

Niesr

2024, issue 16

Foreward - Of Fiscal Straitjackets and Flexibility pp. 3-4

Jagjit Chadha

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 pp. 5-6

Niesr

The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-54

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Benjamin Caswell, Fergus Jimenez-England, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley

Box A: Measures of Labour Market Slack pp. 15-24

Fergus Jimenez-England

Box B: Pensions, Savings and Investment pp. 33-36

Andrew Smithers

Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-88

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Box C: The Materiality of Nature-Related Financial Risks to the UK pp. 47-53

Jimena Alvarez

Forecast tables pp. 89-97

Niesr

2024, issue 15

Foreward - The Public Investment Aspiration pp. 3-4

Jagjit Chadha

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 pp. 5-6

Niesr

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2024 – The Economic Inheritance for the New Government pp. 7-22

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Arnab Bhattacharjee, Benjamin Caswell, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard, Max Mosley, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Box A: Public Financing and Investment pp. 11-17

Francisco Sebastian

The Macroeconomic Outlook pp. 23-42

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Benjamin Caswell, Hailey Low, Monica George Michail, Stephen Millard and Max Mosley

Box B: Should the Bank of England Adopt Unremunerated Reserve Requirements? pp. 39-42

Tim Young

Regional Regeneration and the Outlook for the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 43-72

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Eliza da Silva Gomes, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Forecast tables pp. 73-81

Niesr

2024, issue 14

Foreward pp. 3-4

Adrian Pabst

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2024 – Summary pp. 5-47

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-47

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Ben Caswell, Stephen Millard, Monica George Michail and Max Mosley

Box A: A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Inflation pp. 8-11

Jane Binner, Huw Dixon, Barry Jones and Jon Tepper

Box B: Examining Rising Inactivity and NHS Waiting Times pp. 35-47

Max Mosley

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 48-75

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Forecast tables pp. 76-84

Niesr

2024, issue 13

Foreward pp. 3-4

Adrian Pabst

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2024 – Summary pp. 5-5

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-50

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Ben Caswell, Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley

Box A: Implications of the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions in the UK pp. 29-33

Francisco Sebastian

Box B: Job boom or job bust? The effect of the pandemic on actual and measured job and employment growth pp. 36-41

Bill Wells

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 51-87

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Ben Caswell, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Box C: The state of local government finances pp. 79-83

Jack Shaw

Forecast tables pp. 88-96

Niesr

2023, issue 12

Foreward pp. 3-4

Adrian Pabst

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023 pp. 5-40

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-40

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Huw Dixon and Max Mosley

Box A: Public Confidence in the Bank of England pp. 16-22

Ana Carolina Garriga

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 41-76

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Box B: Productivity Paradox: Challenges and Opportunities pp. 66-73

Adam Yousef

Forecast tables pp. 77-85

Niesr

2023, issue 11

Foreward pp. 3-4

Jagjit Chadha

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2023 pp. 5-44

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 7-44

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard and Kemar Whyte

Box A: Underlying Inflation in the United Kingdom pp. 12-19

Paul Mortimer-Lee and Paula Bejarano Carbo

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 45-82

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley, Robyn Smith and Tibor Szendrei

Spotlight 1: The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Housing Costs pp. 53-59

Max Mosley and Rosen Chowdhury

Box B: The Windsor Framework: What it is and what it might do pp. 73-76

Katy Hayward and John McStravick

Forecast tables pp. 83-91

Niesr

2023, issue 10

Foreward pp. 3

Jagjit Chadha

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Spring 2023 pp. 5-43

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 5-39

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte

Box A: Is the public sector too large? pp. 9-13

Paul Mortimer-Lee

Box B: Economics and population change pp. 19-21

Norma Cohen

Box C: Finance, business investment and productivity pp. 25-29

Issam Samiri

Box D: Public-sector wages: A view from economic theory pp. 38-41

Pedro Gomes

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 44-64

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei

Forecast tables pp. 65-73

Niesr

2023, issue 9

Foreward pp. 3

Jagjit Chadha

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2023 pp. 4-5

Niesr

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom pp. 6-39

Paula Bejarano Carbo, Hailey Low, Leaza McSorley, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel and Kemar Whyte

Box A: Monetary policy and inflation in the second Elizabethan age pp. 13-16

Hailey Low and Paul Mortimer-Lee

Box B: UK manufacturing post Brexit and Covid-19 pp. 26-30

Paul Mortimer-Lee

Box C: Are the Pay Review Bodies fit for purpose in 2023? pp. 33-36

Peter Dolton

Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions pp. 39-60

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Max Mosley and Tibor Szendrei

Appendix A pp. 61

Niesr

Forecast tables pp. 62-70

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