National Institute Global Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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2021, issue 4

Foreward: The Needle's Eye pp. 3

Jagjit Chadha

Executive summary pp. 4-5

Niesr

Slowing growth, rising inflation fears pp. 6-23

Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte

Box A: US inflation - peaking soon? pp. 24-31

Barry Naisbitt, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino

Box B: Services rebound from the Covid-19 shock pp. 32-37

Barry Naisbitt and Kemar Whyte

NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling a sudden largescale global carbon tax shock in NiGEM pp. 38-43

Dawn Holland and Kemar Whyte

Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 44-47

Iana Liadze

Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 48-55

Iana Liadze

2021, issue 3

Foreward pp. 3

Jagjit Chadha

Overview pp. 4

Niesr

Inflation fears escalate as GDP returns to its pre-pandemic level pp. 5-22

Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte

NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Simulating the effect of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility in NiGEM pp. 23-33

Iana Liadze and Corrado Macchiarelli

Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 34-37

Iana Liadze

Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 38-45

Iana Liadze

2021, issue 2

Foreward pp. 3

Jagjit Chadha

Overview pp. 4

Niesr

Vaccinations and US fiscal stimulus boost growth prospects pp. 5-22

Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte

NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM pp. 23-29

Dawn Nicole Holland, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Iana Liadze and Barry Naisbitt

NiGEM Topical Feature 2: Financial spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on emerging markets pp. 30-35

Dawn Nicole Holland, Hande Kucuk and Corrado Macchiarelli

Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 36-39

Iana Liadze

Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 40-47

Iana Liadze

2021, issue 1

Foreward pp. 3

Jagit S. Chadha

Overview pp. 4

Niesr

The world in its grip: Covid-19 pp. 5-18

Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte

NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine pp. 19-25

Dawn Nicole Holland, Corrado Macchiarelli and Xuxin Mao

NiGEM Topical Feature 2: Modelling the change in US monetary policy framework in NiGEM pp. 26-31

Dawn Nicole Holland, Hande Kucuk and Cyrille Lenoel

Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 32-35

Iana Liadze

Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 36-43

Iana Liadze