National Institute Global Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreword pp. 3: Stephen Millard
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-6: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 7-37: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Ahmet Kaya, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Stephen Millard and Shama Bernard
Box A: The Fed Has Overtightened pp. 38-46: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: Expanding country models in NiGEM pp. 47-52: Edmund Cornforth
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 53-61: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 62-71: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-6: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 7-34: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino and Stephen Millard
Box A: Prospects for Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies pp. 35-40: Jakub Rybacki
Box B: The Multilateral Context for European and Australian Economic Cooperation pp. 41-48: Paul Gretton
Box C: Why Did US Inflation Forecasts Fail? pp. 49-58: Paul Mortimer-Lee
NiGEM Topical Feature: Short-term Impact from a Rapid Increase in Carbon Taxes pp. 59-69: Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Patricia Sanchez-Juanino and Stephen Millard
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 70-78: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 79-88: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-26: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Joanna Nowinska, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Hailey Low, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Modelling the effects from slower trade growth: an exercise using NiGEM pp. 27-33: Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt and Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 34-39: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 40-48: Iana Liadze

Foreword pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-34: Barry Naisbitt, Edmund Cornforth, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Joanna Nowinska, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Hailey Low, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: The First World War: what it helps us to understand about Russia's invasion of Ukraine pp. 12-14: Norma Cohen
Box B: Has headline inflation peaked in the G7 economies? pp. 21-27: Barry Naisbitt and Joanna Nowinska
NiGEM Topical Feature: Modelling a secular slowdown in China: an exercise using NiGEM pp. 35-42: Iana Liadze, Xuxin Mao, Barry Naisbitt and Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 43-48: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 49-58: Iana Liadze

Foreword: Troubled Waters pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-26: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Edmund Cornforth, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Joanna Nowinska, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: Rising concerns over increased global economic fragmentation pp. 27-30: Barry Naisbitt
Box B: What is new in the NGFS scenarios? pp. 31-34: Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
NiGEM Topical Feature: The deflationary effects of global monetary tightening – an examination using NiGEM pp. 35-43: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Barry Naisbitt and Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 44-49: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 50-58: Iana Liadze

Foreword: Fraying at the Edges pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Fraying at the Edges – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-23: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: The Euro Area's monetary-fiscal policy interactions after 2020: A new normal? pp. 24-27: Corrado Macchiarelli, Renato Giacon and Anthony Bartzokas
Box B: The geopolitical consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine pp. 28-31: Creon Butler
The global effects of an oil price shock in NiGEM pp. 32-39: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Patricia Sánchez Juanino and Barry Naisbitt
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 40-45: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 46-54: Iana Liadze

Foreword: Walking the Line pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Walking the Line – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-23: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: China's slowdown is structural pp. 24-29: Saul Eslake
Box B: War in Ukraine and the options for Europe's energy supply pp. 30-34: Christopher Aitken and Erkal Ersoy
NiGEM Topical Feature: Re-evaluating the Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in NiGEM pp. 35-45: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 46-51: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 52-60: Iana Liadze

Foreward: Picking up the pieces pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Executive summary pp. 4: Niesr
Inflation prompts policy normalisation pp. 5-20: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
US Inflation: is it "Back to the Future"? pp. 21-27: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: Turkey's unorthodox monetary policy pp. 28-31: Turalay Kenc
NiGEM Topical Feature: Monetary Policy Spillovers: the Euro Area and the United States in NiGEM pp. 32-37: Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 38-41: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 42-49: Iana Liadze