National Institute Global Economic Outlook

2021 - 2025

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Foreword: Troubled Waters pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-26: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Edmund Cornforth, Paula Bejarano Carbo, Joanna Nowinska, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: Rising concerns over increased global economic fragmentation pp. 27-30: Barry Naisbitt
Box B: What is new in the NGFS scenarios? pp. 31-34: Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
NiGEM Topical Feature: The deflationary effects of global monetary tightening – an examination using NiGEM pp. 35-43: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Barry Naisbitt and Patricia Sanchez-Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 44-49: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 50-58: Iana Liadze

Foreword: Fraying at the Edges pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Fraying at the Edges – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-23: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: The Euro Area's monetary-fiscal policy interactions after 2020: A new normal? pp. 24-27: Corrado Macchiarelli, Renato Giacon and Anthony Bartzokas
Box B: The geopolitical consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine pp. 28-31: Creon Butler
The global effects of an oil price shock in NiGEM pp. 32-39: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Patricia Sánchez Juanino and Barry Naisbitt
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 40-45: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 46-54: Iana Liadze

Foreword: Walking the Line pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
National Institute Global Economic Outlook – Walking the Line – Summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Global Economic Outlook pp. 6-23: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box A: China's slowdown is structural pp. 24-29: Saul Eslake
Box B: War in Ukraine and the options for Europe's energy supply pp. 30-34: Christopher Aitken and Erkal Ersoy
NiGEM Topical Feature: Re-evaluating the Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in NiGEM pp. 35-45: Iana Liadze, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 46-51: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 52-60: Iana Liadze

Foreward: Picking up the pieces pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Executive summary pp. 4: Niesr
Inflation prompts policy normalisation pp. 5-20: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
US Inflation: is it "Back to the Future"? pp. 21-27: Paul Mortimer-Lee
Box B: Turkey's unorthodox monetary policy pp. 28-31: Turalay Kenc
NiGEM Topical Feature: Monetary Policy Spillovers: the Euro Area and the United States in NiGEM pp. 32-37: Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 38-41: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 42-49: Iana Liadze

Foreward: The Needle's Eye pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Executive summary pp. 4-5: Niesr
Slowing growth, rising inflation fears pp. 6-23: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
Box A: US inflation - peaking soon? pp. 24-31: Barry Naisbitt, Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino
Box B: Services rebound from the Covid-19 shock pp. 32-37: Barry Naisbitt and Kemar Whyte
NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling a sudden largescale global carbon tax shock in NiGEM pp. 38-43: Dawn Holland and Kemar Whyte
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 44-47: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 48-55: Iana Liadze

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Inflation fears escalate as GDP returns to its pre-pandemic level pp. 5-22: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Simulating the effect of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility in NiGEM pp. 23-33: Iana Liadze and Corrado Macchiarelli
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 34-37: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 38-45: Iana Liadze

Foreward pp. 3: Jagjit Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
Vaccinations and US fiscal stimulus boost growth prospects pp. 5-22: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM pp. 23-29: Dawn Nicole Holland, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Iana Liadze and Barry Naisbitt
NiGEM Topical Feature 2: Financial spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on emerging markets pp. 30-35: Dawn Nicole Holland, Hande Kucuk and Corrado Macchiarelli
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 36-39: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 40-47: Iana Liadze

Foreward pp. 3: Jagit S. Chadha
Overview pp. 4: Niesr
The world in its grip: Covid-19 pp. 5-18: Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Dawn Nicole Holland, Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Cyrille Lenoel, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine pp. 19-25: Dawn Nicole Holland, Corrado Macchiarelli and Xuxin Mao
NiGEM Topical Feature 2: Modelling the change in US monetary policy framework in NiGEM pp. 26-31: Dawn Nicole Holland, Hande Kucuk and Cyrille Lenoel
Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions pp. 32-35: Iana Liadze
Appendix B: Forecast detail pp. 36-43: Iana Liadze