Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies

1997 - 2025

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2016

Nowcasting Portuguese tourism exports

Sonia Cabral and Cláudia Duarte

Bank Switching in Portugal

Gil Nogueira

Financial situation of the households in Portugal: an analysis based on the HFCS 2013

Sónia Costa

The precautionary saving: theories, measurements and policies

Valerio Ercolani

Bank Runs: Theories and Policy Applications

Ettore Panetti

Portugal: Trends, cycles, and instability in output and unemployment over 2008-2012

José Maria

A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data rich environment

Francisco Craveiro Dias, Maximiano Pinheiro and António Rua

The sources of the gender wage gap

Paulo Guimarães, Pedro Portugal, Ana Rute Cardoso and Pedro Raposo

Firm default probabilities revisited

António R. Antunes, Homero Gonçalves and Pedro Prego

How can the Phillips curve be used for today's policy?

Pedro Teles and Joana Garcia

How the Portuguese firms adjusted to the economic and financial crisis: main shocks and channels of adjustment

Fernando Martins

Comparing misallocation between sectors in Portugal

Daniel Dias, Carlos Robalo Marques and Christine Richmond

Structure of corporate funding

Luciana Barbosa and Paulo Soares de Pinho

2015

A Reappraisal of Eurozone Countries Output Differentials

Paulo M.M. Rodrigues and Jorge M. L. G. Andraz

The Portuguese money market throughout the crisis: What was the impact of ECB liquidity provision?

Ana Sofia Saldanha and Carla Soares

The euro area financial network and the need for better integration

Nuno Silva

The Portuguese labor market legislation: a technological shock

Álvaro A. Novo

On fallacies surrounding the discussion about the reduction of social security contributions

Pedro Portugal

On the wage bargaining system in Portugal

Fernando Martins

Trade Unions: The winners curse?

Hugo Vilares

The Portuguese Banking System during the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Matteo Crosignani, Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Luís Fonseca

Temporary contracts’ transitions: the role of training and institutions

Sara Serra

Increased strength of monetary policy

Bernardino Adão and Andre Silva

Revisiting the monthly coincident indicators of Banco de Portugal

António Rua

Determinants of civil litigation in Portugal

Manuel Coutinho Pereira and Lara Wemans

Co-movement of revisions in short- and long-term inflation expectations

António R. Antunes

2014

Gestão da liquidez das empresas não financeiras portuguesas: uma análise das restrições de financiamento

Luísa Farinha

Credit rationing for Portuguese SMEs

Luísa Farinha and Sónia Félix

The impact of bank recapitalization on firms' access to credit: Evidence from Portugal

Sónia Félix and Francisco Augusto

Composite Indicator of Financial Stress for Portugal

José Pedro Braga

Strategy and instruments of macro-prudential policy

Financial Stability Department

Cash holdings determinants in the Portuguese economy

Luísa Farinha

Wage adjustments during a severe economic downturn

Fernando Martins and Pedro Portugal

Sovereign Debt Crises

Pedro Teles

The Dynamics and Contrast of House Prices in Portugal and Spain

Paulo M.M. Rodrigues and Rita Fradique Lourenço

Structural reforms in the euro area

Sandra Gomes

A review of the pharmaceutical market in Portugal

Manuel Coutinho Pereira

The cyclicality of the Portuguese labour market: a macroeconomic perspective in the OECD context

Pedro Amaral

Resource allocation, productivity and growth in Portugal

Daniel Dias

Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models

António Rua and Francisco Craveiro Dias

Grade retention during basic education in Portugal: determinants and impact on student achievement

Hugo Reis and Manuel Coutinho Pereira

Financial frictions and shock transmission: the Portuguese case

Gabriela Castro, José Maria and Paulo Júlio

The 3D Model: a Framework to Assess Capital Regulation

Laurent Clerc

Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises: Exploring new Data and Tools

António R. Antunes, Diana Bonfim, Nuno Monteiro and Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

Capitalization and Credit Provision: Evidence from the United States

Sudipto Karmakar

Portuguese Exports in the Global Value Chains

João Amador and Robert Stehrer

Household Income Mobility in the European Union and in Portugal: an Analysis of Labor Market and Demographic Events

Carlos Martins and Nuno Alves

2013

The implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer: rules versus discretion

Diana Bonfim and Nuno Monteiro

A Macro-prudential Policy for Financial Stability

Rita Basto

Option trade volume and volatility of banks’ stock returns

Rafael Barbosa and Martín Saldias

Bank interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations– one first look at a new set of micro data

Carlos Santos

Investment Decisions and Financial Standing of Portuguese Firms – recent evidence

Luísa Farinha

Is there a risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Portugal?

Carla Soares and Diana Bonfim

The price elasticity of external demand of Portuguese exports: a comparison with other euro area countries

Cristina Manteu and Sonia Cabral

Labor unions, union density and the union wage premium

Pedro Portugal

Segmenting wages

Mário Centeno and Álvaro A. Novo

Confidence and economic activity: the case of Portugal

Maria Tereza Punzi

The import content of global demand in Portugal

António Rua, Fátima Cardoso and Paulo Esteves

The determinants of downward wage rigidity: Some methodological considerations and new empirical evidence

Fernando Martins and Daniel Dias

The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Portugal

Lara Wemans and Manuel Coutinho Pereira

Short-term macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. economy using nowcasts of the survey of professional forecasters

Inês Maria Gonçalves

Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample

Ana Sequeira

The world tourism exports cycle

Paulo M.M. Rodrigues and P.M.D.C.B. Gouveia

Short-term forecasting of indirect tax revenues: an application for Portugal

Cláudia Braz and Paulo Esteves

Oil price shocks and their effects on economic activity and prices: an application for Portugal

Francisco Craveiro Dias

Business cycle accounting for Portugal

Nikolay Iskrev

Foreign investment and institutional reform: Portugal in European perspective

Paulo Júlio and Ricardo Pinheiro-Alves

Competition in the Portuguese Economy: Estimated Price-Cost Margins Under Imperfect Labour Markets

Ana Cristina Soares and João Amador

Trade and wage inequality

Luca David Opromolla

Assessment of Banco de Portugal’s projection errors for economic activity in the period 2009-12

Banco de Portugal

Output effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a structural VAR approach

Lara Wemans and Manuel Coutinho Pereira