Working Paper Series

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2006-39: Saving and interest rates in Japan: why they have fallen and why they will remain low

R. Braun, Daisuke Ikeda and Douglas H. Joines

2006-38: The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output

Charles Engel and John Rogers

2006-37: A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation

Robert Dekle and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2006-36: Dual labor markets and business cycles

David Cook and Hiromi Nosaka

2006-35: Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle

Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop

2006-34: Computer use and the U.S. wage distribution, 1984-2003

Robert Valletta

2006-33: Non-economic engagement and international exchange: the case of environmental treaties

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

2006-32: Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link

Jess Benhabib and Mark Spiegel

2006-31: Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections

Glenn Rudebusch and John Williams

2006-30: Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning

John Williams

2006-29: Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data

Susanto Basu and John Fernald

2006-28: Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information

Michele Cavallo and Tao Wu

2006-27: Safe and sound banking, 20 years later: what was proposed and what has been adopted

Frederick Furlong and Simon Kwan

2006-26: Aggregate shocks or aggregate information? costly information and business cycle comovement

Laura Veldkamp and Justin Wolfers

2006-25: FDI spillovers and firm ownership in China: labor markets and backward linkages

Galina Hale and Cheryl Long

2006-24: Endogenous skill bias in technology adoption: city-level evidence from the IT revolution

Paul Beaudry, Mark Doms and Ethan Lewis

2006-23: Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

Monika Piazzesi and Eric Swanson

2006-22: The frequency of price adjustment and New Keynesian business cycle dynamics

Richard Dennis

2006-21: Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector

Carlos Arteta and Galina Hale

2006-20: The relative price and relative productivity channels for aggregate fluctuations

Eric Swanson

2006-19: Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values

Takeshi Kobayashi, Mark Spiegel and Nobuyoshi Yamori

2006-18: Labor supply and personal computer adoption

Mark Doms and Ethan Lewis

2006-17: Measuring the miracle: market imperfections and Asia's growth experience

John Fernald and Brent Neiman

2006-16: The bond yield \"conundrum\" from a macro-finance perspective

Glenn Rudebusch, Eric Swanson and Tao Wu

2006-15: Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve

Kevin Lansing

2006-14: Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides and John Williams

2006-13: Are there productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment in China?

Galina Hale and Cheryl Long

2006-12: Keeping up with the Joneses and staying ahead of the Smiths: evidence from suicide data

Mary Daly and Daniel Wilson

2006-11: Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

2006-10: Methods for robust control

Richard Dennis, Kai Leitemo and Ulf Söderström

2006-09: Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden

Refet Gürkaynak, Andrew Levin and Eric Swanson

2006-08: Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

2006-07: Pegged exchange rate regimes -- a trap?

Joshua Aizenman and Reuven Glick

2006-06: Five open questions about prediction markets

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

2006-05: Sovereign debt, volatility, and insurance

Kenneth Kletzer

2006-04: Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations

Refet Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Eric Swanson

2006-03: Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?

Michele Cavallo and Cédric Tille

2006-02: Monetary policy shocks, inventory dynamics, and price-setting behavior

Yongseung Jung and Tack Yun

2006-01: Higher-order perturbation solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models

Gary Anderson, Andrew Levin and Eric Swanson

2005-26: Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk

Refet Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers

2005-25: Why has the U.S. Beveridge curve shifted back? new evidence using regional data

Robert Valletta

2005-24: Optimal nonlinear policy: signal extraction with a non-normal prior

Eric Swanson

2005-23: Markov perfect industry dynamics with many firms

C. Lanier Benkard, Benjamin Van Roy and Gabriel Y. Weintraub

2005-22: Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

Jose Lopez

2005-21: Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements

John Fernald

2005-20: Robust control with commitment: a modification to Hansen-Sargent

Richard Dennis

2005-19: Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?

Glenn Rudebusch

2005-18: Accounting for the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing

Milton Marquis and Bharat Trehan

2005-17: Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides and John Williams

2005-16: Government employment and the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks

Michele Cavallo