Working Paper Series

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2020-14: Capital Controls and Income Inequality

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Jingyi Zhang

2020-13: The Costs of Payment Uncertainty in Healthcare Markets

Abe Dunn, Joshua Gottlieb, Adam Shapiro and Pietro Tebaldi

2020-12: Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier

James Cloyne, Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

2020-11: Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2020-10: Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok and Alessandro Rebucci

2020-09: Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh and Alan Taylor

2020-08: Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence

Lukas Hoesch, Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan

2020-07: Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy

Pascal Paul

2020-06: The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the “Fed Information Effect”

Michael Bauer and Eric Swanson

2020-05: Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

2020-04: Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?

Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc

2020-03: The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope

Martin Holm, Pascal Paul and Andreas Tischbirek

2020-02: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

2020-01: The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh and Alan Taylor

2019-9: A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao Zha

2019-7: Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

2019-6: Tracking Financial Fragility

Paolo Giordani and Simon Kwan

2019-5: Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

2019-4: The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis

Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, Galina Hale and Eric Tallman

2019-3: Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches

Jason Choi and Andrew Foerster

2019-29: Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed

Thomas Buchmueller, Helen Levy and Robert Valletta

2019-28: The Safety Premium of Safe Assets

Jens Christensen and Nikola Mirkov

2019-27: Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve

Peter Jorgensen and Kevin Lansing

2019-26: Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk

Robert Amano, Thomas Carter and Sylvain Leduc

2019-25: Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

2019-24: BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws

Han Hong, Huiyu Li and Jessie Li

2019-23: Corporate Yields and Sovereign Yields

Julia Bevilaqua, Galina Hale and Eric Tallman

2019-22: Complexity of Global Banks and their Foreign Operation in Hong Kong

Kelvin Ho, Simon Kwan and Edward Tan

2019-21: Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Mauricio Ulate

2019-20: Riders on the Storm

Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

2019-2: Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis

Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

2019-19: Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark Spiegel

2019-18: R* and the Global Economy

Reuven Glick

2019-17: Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2019-16: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson

2019-15: Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

2019-14: Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2019-13: Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities

Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Adam Shapiro

2019-12: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Michael Bauer, Aeimit Lakdawala and Philippe Mueller

2019-11: A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart and Pete Klenow

2019-10: The Total Risk Premium Puzzle?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2019-08: Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?

Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz

2019-01: Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2018-9: Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche

2018-8: Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation

Kevin Lansing

2018-7: Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

Jose Lopez, Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

2018-6: Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I

Jose Lopez and Kris James Mitchener

2018-5: Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor and Felix Ward

2018-2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending

Stefan Avdjiev and Galina Hale

2018-15: Inflation Globally

Oscar Jorda and Fernanda Nechio