Working Paper Series

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2022-03: The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States

Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson

2022-02: Sellin' in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales

Brigitte Roth Tran

2022-01: On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets

Bart Hobijn, André Kurmann and Tristan Potter

2022: A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation

Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

2021-24: Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

2021-23: Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

Mathias S. Kruttli, Brigitte Roth Tran and Sumudu Watugala

2021-22: Turbulent Business Cycles

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu and Pengfei Wang

2021-21: Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance

Timo Boppart and Huiyu Li

2021-20: The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

2021-19: International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche

2021-18: From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective

Brent Bundick and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2021-17: The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

2021-16: Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk

Ester Faia, Marianna Kudlyak and Ekaterina Shabalina

2021-15: Fiscal Foresight and Perverse Distortions to Firm Behavior: Anticipatory Dips and Compensating Rebounds

Bob Chirinko and Daniel Wilson

2021-14: Monetary Policy Spillovers Under Covid-19: Evidence from U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries

Mark Spiegel

2021-13: UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

2021-12: Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

2021-11: The Economic Gains from Equity

Shelby R. Buckman, Laura Choi, Mary Daly and Lily Seitelman

2021-10: Small Business Lending Under the PPP and PPPLF Programs

Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel

2021-09: The Impact of COVID on Potential Output

John Fernald and Huiyu Li

2021-08: Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

Remy Beauregard, Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Simon Zhu

2021-07: Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation

Stephie Fried

2021-06: Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy

Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan and William Peterman

2021-05: The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession

Leila Bengali, Mary Daly, Olivia Lofton and Robert Valletta

2021-04: Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market

Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lily Seitelman

2021-03: Clouded in Uncertainty: Pursuing Financial Stability with Monetary Policy

Sylvain Leduc

2021-02: Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion

Kevin Lansing

2021-01: Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign

Régis Barnichon, Davide Debortoli and Christian Matthes

2020-36: Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

Oscar Jorda, Martin Kornejew, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2020-35: Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada

Jens Christensen, Glenn Rudebusch and Patrick Shultz

2020-34: The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters

Brigitte Roth Tran and Daniel Wilson

2020-33: Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran and Robert Vigfusson

2020-32: New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks

Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate and Jose Vasquez

2020-31: Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory

Mauricio Ulate

2020-30: Competitive Effects of IPOS: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions

Frank Packer and Mark Spiegel

2020-29: A Simple Framework to Monitor Inflation

Adam Shapiro

2020-28: Reservation Benefits: Assessing job acceptance impacts of increased UI payments

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2020-27: Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, Yuchao Peng and Zhiwei Xu

2020-26: The Credit Line Channel

Daniel L. Greenwald, John Krainer and Pascal Paul

2020-25: The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2020-24: Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number

Shelby R. Buckman, Reuven Glick, Kevin Lansing, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lily Seitelman

2020-23: Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19

Daniel Wilson

2020-22: Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

John Fernald and Robert Inklaar

2020-21: Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB

Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc and Joel Wagner

2020-20: Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

2020-19: Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2020-18: Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

2020-17: World Productivity: 1996 - 2014

Mehrdad Esfahani, John Fernald and Bart Hobijn

2020-16: Innovative Growth Accounting

Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

2020-15: Learning about Regime Change

Andrew Foerster and Christian Matthes