Working Paper Series

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2018-14: Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?

Kevin Lansing, Stephen LeRoy and Jun Ma

2018-13: When Hosios Meets Phillips: Connecting Efficiency and Stability to Demand Shocks

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Etienne Wasmer and Philippe Weil

2018-12: Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

2018-11: Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS

Carlos Carvalho, Fernanda Nechio and Tiago Tristao

2018-10: Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Jingyi Zhang

2018-04: Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak and M. Saif Mehkari

2018-03: What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2018-01: Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data

Galina Hale and Jose Lopez

2017-8: International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach

Mark Spiegel and Andrew Tai

2017-6: Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2017-5: Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

2017-4: Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

2017-3: De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss

Rhys Bidder, John Krainer and Adam Shapiro

2017-25: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2017-24: Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound

Kevin Lansing

2017-23: Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

2017-22: A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

2017-21: Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

Martin Andreasen, Jens Christensen and Glenn Rudebusch

2017-20: Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange

2017-19: Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market

Lamont K. Black, John Krainer and Joseph B. Nichols

2017-18: Leaning Against the Credit Cycle

Paolo Gelain, Kevin Lansing and Gisle Natvik

2017-17: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability

Scott Brave and Jose Lopez

2017-16: Interest Rates Under Falling Stars

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2017-15: Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations

Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Zhiwei Xu

2017-14: The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

John Fernald, Robert Hall, James Stock and Mark Watson

2017-13: Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses

Daniel Wilson

2017-12: Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models

Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio

2017-11: The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Martin M. Andreasen, Jens Christensen and Simon Riddell

2017-10: Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Patrick Shultz

2017-1: Measuring News Sentiment

Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof and Daniel Wilson

2017-09: The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

Pascal Paul

2017-07: A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt

Jens Christensen and Glenn Rudebusch

2017-02: Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2016-9: The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2016-8: The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity

Gilbert Cette, John Fernald and Benoit Mojon

2016-7: Why has the cyclicality of productivity changed? What does it mean?

John Fernald and J. Christina Wang

2016-6: Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy

Carlos Carvalho, Eric Hsu and Fernanda Nechio

2016-5: Demographics and real interest rates: inspecting the mechanism

Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero and Fernanda Nechio

2016-4: The intensive and extensive margins of real wage adjustment

Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn

2016-31: Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit

Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak

2016-30: Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Andrew Tai

2016-3: Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?

David Byrne, John Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf

2016-29: “Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area

Paul Bergin, Reuven Glick and Jyh-Lin Wu

2016-28: Mortgage Choice: Interactive Effects of House Price Appreciation and Mortgage Pricing Components

Frederick Furlong, David Lang and Yelena Takhtamanova

2016-27: Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

Reuven Glick

2016-26: Stress Testing with Misspecified Models

Rhys Bidder, Raffaella Giacomini and Andrew McKenna

2016-25: FDI effects on the labor market of host countries

Galina Hale and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

2016-24: Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

2016-23: Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2016-22: Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan Sanchez