Working Paper Series

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2019-20: Riders on the Storm

Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

2019-2: Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis

Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

2019-19: Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark Spiegel

2019-18: R* and the Global Economy

Reuven Glick

2019-17: Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2019-16: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson

2019-15: Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

2019-14: Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2019-13: Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities

Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Adam Shapiro

2019-12: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Michael Bauer, Aeimit Lakdawala and Philippe Mueller

2019-11: A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart and Pete Klenow

2019-10: The Total Risk Premium Puzzle?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2019-08: Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?

Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz

2019-01: Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2018-9: Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche

2018-8: Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation

Kevin Lansing

2018-7: Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

Jose Lopez, Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

2018-6: Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I

Jose Lopez and Kris James Mitchener

2018-5: Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor and Felix Ward

2018-2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending

Stefan Avdjiev and Galina Hale

2018-15: Inflation Globally

Oscar Jorda and Fernanda Nechio

2018-14: Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?

Kevin Lansing, Stephen LeRoy and Jun Ma

2018-13: When Hosios Meets Phillips: Connecting Efficiency and Stability to Demand Shocks

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Etienne Wasmer and Philippe Weil

2018-12: Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

2018-11: Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS

Carlos Carvalho, Fernanda Nechio and Tiago Tristao

2018-10: Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Jingyi Zhang

2018-04: Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak and M. Saif Mehkari

2018-03: What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

Thomas Mertens and John Williams

2018-01: Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data

Galina Hale and Jose Lopez

2017-8: International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach

Mark Spiegel and Andrew Tai

2017-6: Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2017-5: Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

2017-4: Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

2017-3: De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss

Rhys Bidder, John Krainer and Adam Shapiro

2017-25: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

2017-24: Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound

Kevin Lansing

2017-23: Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

2017-22: A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

2017-21: Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

Martin Andreasen, Jens Christensen and Glenn Rudebusch

2017-20: Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange

2017-19: Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market

Lamont K. Black, John Krainer and Joseph B. Nichols

2017-18: Leaning Against the Credit Cycle

Paolo Gelain, Kevin Lansing and Gisle Natvik

2017-17: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability

Scott Brave and Jose Lopez

2017-16: Interest Rates Under Falling Stars

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2017-15: Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations

Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Zhiwei Xu

2017-14: The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

John Fernald, Robert Hall, James Stock and Mark Watson

2017-13: Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses

Daniel Wilson

2017-12: Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models

Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio

2017-11: The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Martin M. Andreasen, Jens Christensen and Simon Riddell

2017-10: Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Patrick Shultz