Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioural science

Katherine Milkman, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer (), Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, George Loewenstein, Jens Ludwig, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley Whillans, Jonathan Zinman and Angela L. Duckworth ()
Additional contact information
Dena Gromet: University of Pennsylvania
Hung Ho: University of Pennsylvania
Joseph S. Kay: University of Pennsylvania
Timothy W. Lee: University of Pennsylvania
Pepi Pandiloski: University of Chicago
Yeji Park: Princeton University
Aneesh Rai: University of Pennsylvania
Max Bazerman: Harvard University
John Beshears: Harvard University
Lauri Bonacorsi: Northwestern University
Edward Chang: Harvard University
Gretchen Chapman: Carnegie Mellon University
Robert Cialdini: Arizona State University
Hengchen Dai: University of California Los Angeles
Lauren Eskreis-Winkler: University of Chicago
Ayelet Fishbach: University of Chicago
James J. Gross: Stanford University
Samantha Horn: Carnegie Mellon University
Alexa Hubbard: New York University
Steven J. Jones: Rutgers University
Tim Kautz: Mathematica
Erika Kirgios: University of Pennsylvania
Joowon Klusowski: University of Pennsylvania
Ariella Kristal: Harvard University
Rahul Ladhania: University of Michigan
Barbara Mellers: University of Pennsylvania
Silvia Saccardo: Carnegie Mellon University
Gaurav Suri: San Francisco State University
Joachim H. Talloen: Carnegie Mellon University
Jamie Taxer: Stanford University
Yaacov Trope: New York University
Lyle Ungar: University of Pennsylvania
Kevin G. Volpp: University of Pennsylvania
Ashley Whillans: Harvard University
Angela L. Duckworth: University of Pennsylvania

Nature, 2021, vol. 600, issue 7889, 478-483

Abstract: Abstract Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens’ decisions and outcomes1. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time intervals2. The lack of comparability of such individual investigations limits their potential to inform policy. Here, to address this limitation and accelerate the pace of discovery, we introduce the megastudy—a massive field experiment in which the effects of many different interventions are compared in the same population on the same objectively measured outcome for the same duration. In a megastudy targeting physical exercise among 61,293 members of an American fitness chain, 30 scientists from 15 different US universities worked in small independent teams to design a total of 54 different four-week digital programmes (or interventions) encouraging exercise. We show that 45% of these interventions significantly increased weekly gym visits by 9% to 27%; the top-performing intervention offered microrewards for returning to the gym after a missed workout. Only 8% of interventions induced behaviour change that was significant and measurable after the four-week intervention. Conditioning on the 45% of interventions that increased exercise during the intervention, we detected carry-over effects that were proportionally similar to those measured in previous research3–6. Forecasts by impartial judges failed to predict which interventions would be most effective, underscoring the value of testing many ideas at once and, therefore, the potential for megastudies to improve the evidentiary value of behavioural science.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-04128-4

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