Working Papers

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2022: Retrieving the Returns to Experience, Tenure, and Job Mobility from Work Histories

Pedro Portugal and John Addison

2022: Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal

Hugo Reis and Emilio Borghesan

2022: Human Capital Spillovers and Returns to Education

Hugo Reis, Paulo Guimaraes, Pedro Portugal and Ana Rute Cardoso

2022: The labor share and the monetary transmission

Bernardino Adão and Andre Silva

2022: What’s Driving the Decline in Entrepreneurship?

Nicholas Kozeniauskas

2022: Coworker Networks and the Role of Occupations in Job Finding

Attila Gyetvai and Maria Zhu

2022: Identification and Estimation of Continuous-Time Job Search Models with Preference Shocks

Attila Gyetvai and Peter Arcidiacono

2022: Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning

Joana Garcia

2022: Cross-Sectional Error Dependence in Panel Quantile Regressions

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2022: Stayin’ alive? Government support measures in Portugal during the Covid-19 pandemic

Márcio Mateus

2022: The solvency and funding cost nexus - the role of market stigma for buffer usability

Helena Carvalho

2022: Real effects of imperfect bank-firm matching

Luísa Farinha and Sotirios Kokas

2022: Determinants of cost of equity for listed euro area banks

Gabriel Zsurkis

2022: Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting

Paulo Rodrigues and Robert Hill

2022: Mind the Build-up: Quantifying Tail Risks for Credit Growth in Portugal

Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta

2022: Survival of the fittest: Tourism Exposure and Firm Survival

Hugo Reis, Paulo Rodrigues and Filipe B. Caires

2022: Comparing estimated structural models of different complexities: What do we learn?

José Maria and Paulo Júlio

2022: How Bad Can Financial Crises Be? A GDP Tail Risk Assessment for Portugal

Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta

2022: Optimal cooperative taxation in the global economy

Pedro Teles and V. V. Chari

2022: The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy

Carla Soares, Diana Bonfim and Christian Bittner

2022: Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular

António Rua and Nuno Lourenço

2022: The Banco de Portugal balance sheet expansion during the last two decades: a monetary policy perspective

Joana Sousa Leite, Diana Correia, Cristina Coutinho and Carmen Camacho

2022: An economic estimate of capital stock at the firm level for Portugal

Manuel Pereira and Ana Fontoura Gouveia

2022: Modelling the financial situation of Portuguese firms using micro-data: a simulation for the COVID-19 pandemic

Carla Marques

2022: Climate change and the economy: an introduction

António Antunes, Bernardino Adão, Nuno Lourenço, Miguel Gouveia and João Valle e Azevedo

2021: Markups and Financial Shocks

Ana Cristina Soares and Philipp Meinen

2021: Coworker Networks and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Portugal

Marta Silva and Jose Garcia-Louzao

2021: Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel

Gil Nogueira, Luísa Farinha and Laura Blattner

2021: Trade, Misallocation, and Capital Market Integration

Laszlo Tetenyi

2021: On the Cleansing Effect of Recessions and Government Policy: Evidence from Covid-19

Pedro Dias Moreira and Nicholas Kozeniauskas

2021: Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates

Alexandre Carvalho, João Valle e Azevedo and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

2021: The impact of a macroprudential borrower based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices

Sónia Félix and Daniel Abreu

2021: The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing

Diana Bonfim and Cláudia Custódio

2021: COVID-19, Lockdowns and International Trade: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Ana Catarina Pimenta, Carlos Melo Gouveia and João Amador

2021: Serial Entrepreneurs, the Macroeconomy and Top Income Inequality

Sónia Félix and Sudipto Karmakar

2021: The persistence of wages

Paulo Rodrigues, Pedro Portugal and Anabela Carneiro

2021: Scrapping, Renewable Technology Adoption, and Growth

Bernardino Adão and Borghan Narajabad

2021: Assessing the effectiveness of the Portuguese borrower-based measure in the Covid-19 context

Katja Neugebauer

2021: Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel

Diana Bonfim, Sujiao Zhao and Miguel A. Ferreira

2021: Risk shocks, due loans, and policy options: When less is more!

José Maria, Paulo Júlio and Sílvia Santos

2021: Assessment of the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Lucas Avezum

2021: Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

Vasco Gabriel

2021: Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models

Nikolay Iskrev

2021: Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2021: The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Times of Trouble

Jagjit Chadha

2021: Multivariate Fractional Integration Tests allowing for Conditional Heteroskedasticity with an Application to Return Volatility and Trading Volume

Paulo Rodrigues and Marina Balboa

2021: Optimal Social Insurance: Insights from a Continuous-Time Stochastic Setup

João Amador and Pedro G. Rodrigues

2021: Assessment of the exposure of the Portuguese banking system to non-financial corporations sensitive to climate transition risks

Ricardo Marques

2020: To change or not to change: the impact of the law on mortgage origination

Ana Sa

2020: Heterogeneous response of consumers to income shocks throughout a financial assistance program

Fátima Cardoso, Manuel Pereira and Nuno Alves

2020: Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Aggregate and Distributional Effects

Cezar Santos

2020: Assessing the Scoreboard of the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure: (Machine) Learning from Decisions

João Amador and Tiago Alves

2020: Slums and Pandemics

Luiz Brotherhood

2020: An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies

Luiz Brotherhood

2020: The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown

António Rua and Nuno Lourenço

2020: Dream jobs

Luca David Opromolla and Giordano Mion

2020: The importance of deposit insurance credibility

Diana Bonfim and Joao Santos

2020: Banks’ complexity and risk: agency problems and diversification benefits

Diana Bonfim and Sónia Félix

2020: Intergenerational wealth inequality: the role of demographics

António Antunes and Valerio Ercolani

2020: Measuring wage inequality under right censoring

Paulo Rodrigues and João Nicolau

2020: A non-hierarchical dynamic factor model for three-way data

António Rua and Francisco Dias

2020: The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: A simple and flexible framework

Paulo Rodrigues and Gabriel Zsurkis

2020: Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment

António Rua, Carlos Melo Gouveia and Nuno Lourenço

2020: Types of International Traders and the Network of Capital Participations

João Amador, Sonia Cabral and Birgitte Ringstad

2020: Endogenous Growth and Monetary Policy: How Do Interest-Rate Feedback Rules Shape Nominal and Real Transitional Dynamics?

Gustavo Iglésias

2020: Labor Earnings Dynamics in a Developing Economy with a Large Informal Sector

Cezar Santos

2020: On-site inspecting zombie lending

Diana Bonfim and Geraldo Cerqueiro

2020: Occasional paper on crypto-assets

Banco de Portugal working group on crypto-assets

2020: The short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Portuguese companies

Ana Sequeira, Cristina Manteu and Nuno Monteiro

2020: Imputation of the Portuguese Household Finance and Consumption Survey

Luís Martins

2020: Banco de Portugal TARGET balance: evolution and main drivers

Joana Sousa-Leite, Rita Soares, João Filipe and Nuno Nóbrega