Working Papers

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2021: Markups and Financial Shocks

Ana Cristina Soares and Philipp Meinen

2021: Coworker Networks and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Portugal

Marta Silva and Jose Garcia-Louzao

2021: Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel

Gil Nogueira, Luísa Farinha and Laura Blattner

2021: Trade, Misallocation, and Capital Market Integration

Laszlo Tetenyi

2021: On the Cleansing Effect of Recessions and Government Policy: Evidence from Covid-19

Pedro Dias Moreira and Nicholas Kozeniauskas

2021: Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates

Alexandre Carvalho, João Valle e Azevedo and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

2021: The impact of a macroprudential borrower based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices

Sónia Félix and Daniel Abreu

2021: The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing

Diana Bonfim and Cláudia Custódio

2021: COVID-19, Lockdowns and International Trade: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Ana Catarina Pimenta, Carlos Melo Gouveia and João Amador

2021: Serial Entrepreneurs, the Macroeconomy and Top Income Inequality

Sónia Félix and Sudipto Karmakar

2021: The persistence of wages

Paulo Rodrigues, Pedro Portugal and Anabela Carneiro

2021: Scrapping, Renewable Technology Adoption, and Growth

Bernardino Adão and Borghan Narajabad

2021: Assessing the effectiveness of the Portuguese borrower-based measure in the Covid-19 context

Katja Neugebauer

2021: Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel

Diana Bonfim, Sujiao Zhao and Miguel A. Ferreira

2021: Risk shocks, due loans, and policy options: When less is more!

José Maria, Paulo Júlio and Sílvia Santos

2021: Assessment of the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Lucas Avezum

2021: Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

Vasco Gabriel

2021: Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models

Nikolay Iskrev

2021: Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2021: The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Times of Trouble

Jagjit Chadha

2021: Multivariate Fractional Integration Tests allowing for Conditional Heteroskedasticity with an Application to Return Volatility and Trading Volume

Paulo Rodrigues and Marina Balboa

2021: Optimal Social Insurance: Insights from a Continuous-Time Stochastic Setup

João Amador and Pedro G. Rodrigues

2021: Assessment of the exposure of the Portuguese banking system to non-financial corporations sensitive to climate transition risks

Ricardo Marques

2020: To change or not to change: the impact of the law on mortgage origination

Ana Sa

2020: Heterogeneous response of consumers to income shocks throughout a financial assistance program

Fátima Cardoso, Manuel Pereira and Nuno Alves

2020: Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Aggregate and Distributional Effects

Cezar Santos

2020: Assessing the Scoreboard of the EU Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure: (Machine) Learning from Decisions

João Amador and Tiago Alves

2020: Slums and Pandemics

Luiz Brotherhood

2020: An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies

Luiz Brotherhood

2020: The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown

António Rua and Nuno Lourenço

2020: Dream jobs

Luca David Opromolla and Giordano Mion

2020: The importance of deposit insurance credibility

Diana Bonfim and Joao Santos

2020: Banks’ complexity and risk: agency problems and diversification benefits

Diana Bonfim and Sónia Félix

2020: Intergenerational wealth inequality: the role of demographics

António Antunes and Valerio Ercolani

2020: Measuring wage inequality under right censoring

Paulo Rodrigues and João Nicolau

2020: A non-hierarchical dynamic factor model for three-way data

António Rua and Francisco Dias

2020: The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: A simple and flexible framework

Paulo Rodrigues and Gabriel Zsurkis

2020: Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment

António Rua, Carlos Melo Gouveia and Nuno Lourenço

2020: Types of International Traders and the Network of Capital Participations

João Amador, Sonia Cabral and Birgitte Ringstad

2020: Endogenous Growth and Monetary Policy: How Do Interest-Rate Feedback Rules Shape Nominal and Real Transitional Dynamics?

Gustavo Iglésias

2020: Labor Earnings Dynamics in a Developing Economy with a Large Informal Sector

Cezar Santos

2020: On-site inspecting zombie lending

Diana Bonfim and Geraldo Cerqueiro

2020: Occasional paper on crypto-assets

Banco de Portugal working group on crypto-assets

2020: The short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Portuguese companies

Ana Sequeira, Cristina Manteu and Nuno Monteiro

2020: Imputation of the Portuguese Household Finance and Consumption Survey

Luís Martins

2020: Banco de Portugal TARGET balance: evolution and main drivers

Joana Sousa-Leite, Rita Soares, João Filipe and Nuno Nóbrega

2019: Tighter Credit and Consumer Bankruptcy Insurance

António Antunes and Tiago Cavalcanti

2019: From Micro to Macro: A Note on the Analysis of Aggregate Productivity Dynamics Using Firm-Level Data

Daniel Dias

2019: Bank Funding and the Survival of Start-ups

Luísa Farinha, Sónia Félix and Joao Santos

2019: Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions

Cláudia Duarte, José Maria and Sharmin Sazedj

2019: Time vs. Risk Preferences, Bank Liquidity Provision and Financial Fragility

Ettore Panetti

2019: Sovereign exposures in the Portuguese banking system: determinants and dynamics

Maria Campos and Ana Rita Mateus

2019: The Financial Channels of Labor Rigidities: Evidence from Portugal

Ettore Panetti and Edoardo Maria Acabbi

2019: ECB, BoE and Fed Monetary-Policy announcements: price and volume effects on European securities markets

Eurico Ferreira

2019: Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis

António Rua and Hossein Hassani

2019: Testing for breaks in the cointegrating relationship: On the stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium

Paulo Rodrigues and Philipp Sibbertsen

2019: The Neutrality of Nominal Rates: How Long is the Long Run?

João Valle e Azevedo and Pedro Teles

2019: Euro area fiscal policy changes: stylised features of the past two decades

Cláudia Braz and Nicolas Carnot

2019: A reexamination of inflation persistence dynamics in OECD countries: A new approach

Paulo Rodrigues and Gabriel Zsurkis

2019: Into the heterogeneities in the Portuguese labour market: an empirical assessment

Fernando Martins and Domingos Seward

2019: The new ESCB methodology for the calculation of cyclically adjusted budget balances: an application to the Portuguese case

Cláudia Braz, Maria Campos and Sharmin Sazedj

2019: Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2019: Modelling the Demand for Euro Banknotes

António Rua

2019: What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?

Sónia Félix and Chiara Maggi

2019: Vocational high school graduate wage gap: the role of cognitive skills and firms

Hugo Reis and Joop Hartog

2019: How Responsive are Wages to Demand within the Firm? Evidence from Idiosyncratic Export Demand Shocks

Andrew Garin

2019: The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to bank credit supply: evidence from the TLTRO

Joana Sousa-Leite and Antonio Afonso

2019: Economic consequences of high public debt and challenges ahead for the euro area

Maria Campos and Cristina Checherita-Westphal

2019: Sovereign exposures in the Portuguese banking system: evidence from an original dataset

Maria Campos and Ana Rita Mateus

2019: A tentative exploration of the effects of Brexit on foreign direct investment vis-à-vis the United Kingdom

Ana de Almeida

2019: The Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union

Cláudia Braz, João Amador and João Valle e Azevedo