Working Papers

From Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
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2023: What lies behind returns to schooling: the role of labor market sorting and worker heterogeneity

Pedro Portugal, Hugo Reis, Paulo Guimaraes and Ana Rute Cardoso

2023: Taxes and Migration Flows: Preferential Tax Schemes for High-Skill Immigrants

Pedro Teles and João Brogueira de Sousa

2023: The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation

Pedro Dias Moreira and João Monteiro

2023: Regulating Artificial Intelligence

Pedro Teles, João Guerreiro and Sérgio Rebelo

2023: The determinants of the loss given default of residential mortgage loans in Portugal

Márcio Mateus

2023: Navigating with a compass: Charting the course of underlying inflation

António Rua, Nuno Lourenço and João Quelhas

2023: Currency choices and the role of the U.S. dollar in international services trade

Joana Garcia and João Amador

2023: Structural and cyclical capital instruments in the 3D model: a simulation for Portugal

Diana Lima, Duarte Maia and Ana Pereira

2023: Prudential policy treatments to the COVID-19 economic crisis: an assessment of the effects

Diana Lima and Duarte Maia

2023: The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sovereign Loan Guarantees, and Financial Stability

Tiago Pinheiro

2023: Gone with the wind: A structural decomposition of carbon emissions

António Rua and Fátima Cardoso

2023: Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period

José Maria and Paulo Júlio

2023: Remote Work, Foreign Residents, and the Future of Global Cities

Pedro Teles and João Guerreiro

2023: First passage times in portfolio optimization: a novel nonparametric approach

Paulo Rodrigues and Gabriel Zsurkis

2023: To use or not to use? Capital buffers and lending during a crisis

Vítor Branco Oliveira, Diogo Serra and Lucas Avezum

2023: The impact of ICT adoption on productivity: Evidence from Portuguese firm-level data

João Amador and Cátia Silva

2023: Tail index estimation in the presence of covariates: Stock returns’ tail risk dynamics

Paulo Rodrigues and João Nicolau

2023: Does green transition promote green innovation and technological acquisitions?

Wildmer Daniel Gregori and Udichibarna Bose

2023: Mortgage Borrowing Caps: Leverage, Default, and Welfare

Leonor Queiró and João Gouveia-Oliveira

2023: A macroprudential look into the risk-return framework of banks’ profitability

Joana Passinhas and Ana Pereira

2023: Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions

José Miguel Cardoso da Costa and Rui Albuquerque

2023: A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area

Sandra Gomes and Pascal Jacquinot

2023: Introducing quarterly databases to assess industry-level developments in Portugal and the euro area

Sonia Cabral, Cláudia Duarte and José Maria

2023: Occasional paper on Stablecoins

Banco de Portugal working group on crypto-assets

2022: Retrieving the Returns to Experience, Tenure, and Job Mobility from Work Histories

Pedro Portugal and John Addison

2022: Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal

Hugo Reis and Emilio Borghesan

2022: Human Capital Spillovers and Returns to Education

Hugo Reis, Paulo Guimaraes, Pedro Portugal and Ana Rute Cardoso

2022: The labor share and the monetary transmission

Bernardino Adao and Andre Silva

2022: What’s Driving the Decline in Entrepreneurship?

Nicholas Kozeniauskas

2022: Coworker Networks and the Role of Occupations in Job Finding

Attila Gyetvai and Maria Zhu

2022: Identification and Estimation of Continuous-Time Job Search Models with Preference Shocks

Attila Gyetvai and Peter Arcidiacono

2022: Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning

Joana Garcia

2022: Cross-Sectional Error Dependence in Panel Quantile Regressions

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2022: Stayin’ alive? Government support measures in Portugal during the Covid-19 pandemic

Katja Neugebauer and Márcio Mateus

2022: The solvency and funding cost nexus - the role of market stigma for buffer usability

Fátima Silva and Helena Carvalho

2022: Real effects of imperfect bank-firm matching

Luísa Farinha and Sotirios Kokas

2022: Determinants of cost of equity for listed euro area banks

Gabriel Zsurkis

2022: Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting

Paulo Rodrigues and Robert Hill

2022: Mind the Build-up: Quantifying Tail Risks for Credit Growth in Portugal

Duarte Maia and Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta

2022: Survival of the fittest: Tourism Exposure and Firm Survival

Hugo Reis, Paulo Rodrigues and Filipe B. Caires

2022: Comparing estimated structural models of different complexities: What do we learn?

José Maria and Paulo Júlio

2022: How Bad Can Financial Crises Be? A GDP Tail Risk Assessment for Portugal

Duarte Maia and Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta

2022: Optimal cooperative taxation in the global economy

Pedro Teles and V. V. Chari

2022: The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy

Carla Soares, Diana Bonfim and Christian Bittner

2022: Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular

António Rua and Nuno Lourenço

2022: The Banco de Portugal balance sheet expansion during the last two decades: a monetary policy perspective

Joana Sousa Leite, Diana Correia, Cristina Coutinho and Carmen Camacho

2022: An economic estimate of capital stock at the firm level for Portugal

Manuel Pereira and Ana Fontoura Gouveia

2022: Modelling the financial situation of Portuguese firms using micro-data: a simulation for the COVID-19 pandemic

Carla Marques

2022: Climate change and the economy: an introduction

António Antunes, Bernardino Adao, Nuno Lourenço, Miguel Gouveia and João Valle e Azevedo

2021: Markups and Financial Shocks

Ana Cristina Soares and Philipp Meinen

2021: Coworker Networks and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Portugal

Marta Silva and Jose Garcia-Louzao

2021: Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel

Gil Nogueira, Luísa Farinha and Laura Blattner

2021: Trade, Misallocation, and Capital Market Integration

Laszlo Tetenyi

2021: On the Cleansing Effect of Recessions and Government Policy: Evidence from Covid-19

Pedro Dias Moreira and Nicholas Kozeniauskas

2021: Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates

Alexandre Carvalho, João Valle e Azevedo and Pedro Pires Ribeiro

2021: The impact of a macroprudential borrower based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices

Sónia Félix, Fátima Silva and Daniel Abreu

2021: The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing

Diana Bonfim and Cláudia Custódio

2021: COVID-19, Lockdowns and International Trade: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Ana Catarina Pimenta, Carlos Melo Gouveia and João Amador

2021: Serial Entrepreneurs, the Macroeconomy and Top Income Inequality

Sónia Félix and Sudipto Karmakar

2021: The persistence of wages

Paulo Rodrigues, Pedro Portugal and Anabela Carneiro

2021: Scrapping, Renewable Technology Adoption, and Growth

Bernardino Adao and Borghan Narajabad

2021: Assessing the effectiveness of the Portuguese borrower-based measure in the Covid-19 context

Katja Neugebauer and Vítor Branco Oliveira

2021: Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel

Diana Bonfim, Sujiao Zhao and Miguel A. Ferreira

2021: Risk shocks, due loans, and policy options: When less is more!

José Maria, Paulo Júlio and Sílvia Santos

2021: Assessment of the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Diogo Serra and Lucas Avezum

2021: Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

Diana Lima and Vasco Gabriel

2021: Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models

Nikolay Iskrev

2021: Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability

Paulo Rodrigues and Matei Demetrescu

2021: The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Times of Trouble

Jagjit Chadha

2021: Multivariate Fractional Integration Tests allowing for Conditional Heteroskedasticity with an Application to Return Volatility and Trading Volume

Paulo Rodrigues and Marina Balboa

2021: Optimal Social Insurance: Insights from a Continuous-Time Stochastic Setup

João Amador and Pedro G. Rodrigues

2021: Assessment of the exposure of the Portuguese banking system to non-financial corporations sensitive to climate transition risks

Ricardo Marques