AEA Papers and Proceedings

2018 - 2024

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Volume 113, month May, 2023

President's Foreword pp. xi-

Susan Athey

Editors' Introduction pp. xii-

William Johnson and Tina Lippert

Distorted Innovation: Does the Market Get the Direction of Technology Right? pp. 1-28

Daron Acemoglu

The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions pp. 29-32

Javier Bianchi and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

International Sanctions and Limits of Lerner Symmetry pp. 33-38

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin

How Should Sanctions Account for Bystander Countries? pp. 39-42

John Sturm

Sectoral Shocks and the Role of Market Integration: The Case of Natural Gas pp. 43-46

Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation pp. 47-51

Ricardo Reis

Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms pp. 52-55

Bernardo Candia, Michael Weber, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

Firm Inflation Uncertainty pp. 56-60

Ivan Yotzov, Lena Anayi, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Özgen Öztürk and Gregory Thwaites

Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Work pp. 61-64

Rüdiger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Georgi Kocharkov, Ralph Luetticke and Michael Weber

Interest Rates and World Trade: An "Austrian" Perspective pp. 65-69

Pol Antràs

The Trickling Up of Excess Savings pp. 70-75

Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints pp. 76-80

Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

Measuring the Share of Imports in Final Consumption pp. 81-86

Emmanuel Dhyne, Ken Kikkawa, Magne Mogstad and Felix Tintelnot

Sprouting Cities: How Rural America Industrialized pp. 87-92

Fabian Eckert, John Juneau and Michael Peters

New Measurement of Export Participation in US Manufacturing pp. 93-98

Christoph Boehm, Aaron Flaaen and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Market Power, Financial Constraints, and Monetary Transmission pp. 99-104

Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Raphael Lee and Marina Tavares

Monetary Policy, Market Power, and SMEs pp. 105-09

Annalisa Ferrando, Peter McAdam, Filippos Petroulakis and Xavier Vives

The Wage Phillips Curve under Labor Market Power pp. 110-13

Anastasia Burya, Rui Mano, Yannick Timmer and Anke Weber

China in Tax Havens pp. 114-19

Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

The Secular Decrease in UK Safe Asset Market Power pp. 120-24

Jason Choi, Duong Dang, Rishabh Kirpalani and Diego J. Perez

The Stock Connect to China pp. 125-30

Zhiguo He, Yuehan Wang and Xiaoquan Zhu

Debt Distress on China's Belt and Road pp. 131-34

Sebastian Horn, Bradley C. Parks, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

Timely Business Dynamics Using Google Places pp. 135-39

Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Artur Kotlicki and Philip Schnattinger

Measuring Business Trends and Outlook through a New Survey pp. 140-44

Catherine Buffington, Lucia Foster and Colin Shevlin

Payroll Employment at the Weekly Frequency pp. 145-50

Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas and Christopher Kurz

Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators? pp. 151-55

Jose Asturias, Emin Dinlersoz, John Haltiwanger and Rebecca Hutchinson

Homophily and Community Structure at Scale: An Application to a Large Professional Network pp. 156-60

Juan Nelson Martínez Dahbura, Shota Komatsu, Takanori Nishida and Angelo Mele

Using Grouped Data to Estimate Revenue Heterogeneity in Online Advertising Auctions pp. 161-65

Nils A. Breitmar, Matthew Harding and Carlos Lamarche

Born to Be (Sub)Prime: An Exploratory Analysis pp. 166-71

Helena Bach, Pietro Campa, Giacomo De Giorgi, Jaromir Nosal and Davide Pietrobon

News Media, Inflation, and Sentiment pp. 172-76

Alistair Macaulay and Wenting Song

Bank Loan Monitoring, Distance, and Delegation pp. 177-81

Amanda Rae Heitz, Christopher Martin and Alexander Ufier

Control of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations pp. 182-85

Ian Appel and Jillian Grennan

Stereotypes about Successful Entrepreneurs pp. 186-90

Victor Lyonnet and Léa Stern

Data Markets with Privacy-Conscious Consumers pp. 191-96

Rossella Argenziano and Alessandro Bonatti

Privacy and the Value of Data pp. 197-203

Simone Galperti and Jacopo Perego

Consumer Control and Privacy Policies pp. 204-09

S. Nageeb Ali, Greg Lewis and Shoshana Vasserman

Advanced Technology Adoption: Selection or Causal Effects? pp. 210-14

Daron Acemoglu, Gary Anderson, David Beede, Catherine Buffington, Eric Childress, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger, Zachary Kroff, Pascual Restrepo and Nikolas Zolas

Robot Hubs: The Skewed Distribution of Robots in US Manufacturing pp. 215-18

Erik Brynjolfsson, Catherine Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. Frank Li, Javier Miranda and Robert Seamans

The Local Labor Market Effects of Modern Manufacturing Capital: Evidence from France pp. 219-23

Philippe Aghion, Céline Antonin, Simon Bunel and Xavier Jaravel

Robots and Female Employment in German Manufacturing pp. 224-28

Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe and Jens Stegmaier

The Impact of Distance in Retail Markets pp. 229-33

Danny Edgel, Jean-François Houde, Peter Newberry and Katja Seim

The Role of Housing Platforms in Facilitating Trading between Firms pp. 234-38

Xuequan Elsie Peng and Maisy Wong

Self-Preferencing at Amazon: Evidence from Search Rankings pp. 239-43

Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Alexander MacKay

Matching and Network Effects in Ride-Hailing pp. 244-47

Juan Castillo and Shreya Mathur

A Solomonic Solution to Blockchain Front-Running pp. 248-52

Joshua Gans and Richard Holden

Blockchain Private Pools and Price Discovery pp. 253-56

Agostino Capponi, Ruizhe Jia and Ye Wang

Technologies That Replace a "Central Planner" pp. 257-62

Robert M. Townsend and Nicolas X. Zhang

Financial Bubbles in Infinitely Repeated Auctions with Tokens pp. 263-67

Andrea Canidio

Innovation for Innovators: The Financing of Intangibles pp. 268-73

Ana Babus, Matias Marzani and Sara Moreira

The Great Start-up Sellout and the Rise of Oligopoly pp. 274-78

Florian Ederer and Bruno Pellegrino

Rising Markups, Rising Prices? pp. 279-83

Christopher Conlon, Nathan H. Miller, Tsolmon Otgon and Yi Yao

Terms of the Deal Were Not Announced: Accounting for Mergers with Unpublicized Values pp. 284-87

Thomas G. Wollmann

M&A and Innovation: A New Classification of Patents pp. 288-93

Zhaoqi Cheng, Ginger Zhe Jin, Mario Leccese, Dokyun Lee and Liad Wagman

Mergers and Acquisitions under Common Ownership pp. 294-98

Miguel Antón, Florian Ederer, Mireia Giné and Bruno Pellegrino

Risk Rating without Information Provision pp. 299-303

Philip Mulder and Carolyn Kousky

Efficient Adaptation to Flood Risk pp. 304-09

Winston P. Hovekamp and Katherine R. H. Wagner

Wildfire Insurance, Information, and Self-Protection pp. 310-15

Judson Boomhower, Meredith Fowlie and Andrew J. Plantinga

Policies for Electrifying the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet in the United States pp. 316-22

Cassandra Cole, Michael Droste, Christopher Knittel, Shanjun Li and James H. Stock

Pass-through of Electric Vehicle Subsidies: A Global Analysis pp. 323-28

Panle Barwick, Hyuk-soo Kwon, Binglin Wang and Nahim Bin Zahur

Has Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles Been Increasing? Evidence from Microdata on Every New Vehicle Sale in the United States pp. 329-35

Kenneth Gillingham, Arthur A. van Benthem, Stephanie Weber, Mohamed Ali Saafi and Xin He

The Mental Health of Caregivers and Young Children in Conflict-Affected Settings pp. 336-41

Juliana Sánchez-Ariza, Jorge Cuartas and Andres Moya

Reparations for Victims: Lessons from Colombia pp. 342-46

Arlen Guarin, Juliana Londoño-Vélez and Christian Posso Suarez

Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience pp. 347-51

Maria José Urbina, Sandra V. Rozo, Andres Moya and Ana Ibáñez

Refugee Entrepreneurship: The Case of Venezuelans in Colombia pp. 352-56

Dany Bahar, Bo Cowgill and Jorge Guzman

Addressing the Surge in Unaccompanied Migrant Children pp. 357-60

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Jose Bucheli and Mary Lopez

The Self-Employment Effects of Secure Communities in the United States pp. 361-66

Raffi E. García and Alejandro Gutiérrez-Li

Anticipatory Migration Responses to Rural Climate Shocks pp. 367-71

Esteban J. Quiñones, Jenna Nobles, Fernando Riosmena and Raphael Nawrotzki

Do Health Disparities Narrow with Pollution Disparities? Trends from California pp. 372-76

Danae Hernandez-Cortes and Kyle C. Meng

Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? pp. 377-81

James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico

Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock? pp. 382-87

Nadav Ben Zeev, Valerie Ramey and Sarah Zubairy

Fiscal Stimulus and the Systematic Response of Monetary Policy pp. 388-93

Christian Wolf

The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool pp. 394-400

Eric Swanson

The Short-Term Labor Supply Response to the Expanded Child Tax Credit pp. 401-05

Brandon Enriquez, Damon Jones and Ernie Tedeschi

The Effects of the Monthly and Lump-Sum Child Tax Credit Payments on Food and Housing Hardship pp. 406-12

Zachary Parolin, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie Collyer, Megan Curran and Christopher Wimer

The 2021 Child Tax Credit: Who Received It and How Did They Spend It? pp. 413-19

Katherine Michelmore and Natasha V. Pilkauskas

The Impact of COVID-19 on Access to Mental Health Care Services pp. 420-22

Benjamin Harrell, Luca Fumarco, Patrick Button, David J. Schwegman and Kyla Denwood

(Incorrect) Perceived Returns and Strategic Behavior among Talented Low-Income College Graduates pp. 423-26

Jorge M. Agüero, Francisco Galarza and Gustavo Yamada

Males Should Mail? Gender Discrimination in Access to Childcare pp. 427-31

Henning Hermes, Philipp Lergetporer, Frauke Peter, Fabian Mierisch and Simon Wiederhold

Do Financial Incentives Encourage Women to Apply for a Tech Job? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment pp. 432-35

Jan Feld, Edwin Ip, Andreas Leibbrandt and Joseph Vecci

Perceptions of Gender Diversity in Occupations pp. 436-39

Jeffrey Flory, Andreas Leibbrandt, Olga Shurchkov, Olga Stoddard and Alva Taylor

Applicants to Historically Black Colleges and Universities pp. 440-45

Ashley Edwards, Justin Ortagus, Jonathan Smith and Andria Smythe

Colleges and Upward Economic Mobility: The Distinctive Contribution of HBCUs pp. 446-50

James Koch and Omari Swinton

Racial Gaps in Federal Flood Buyout Compensations pp. 451-55

Kay Jowers, Lala Ma and Christopher D. Timmins

The Incarceration Penalty and Black-White Economic Inequality: The Case of Baltimore pp. 456-61

Lauren Russell, Jorge Zumaeta, Aaron Colston and William Darity

Can High School Counselors Help the Economics Pipeline? pp. 462-66

Melissa Gentry, Jonathan Meer and Danila Serra

Fully Promoted: The Distribution and Determinants of Full Professorship in the Economics Profession pp. 467-72

Marieke Kleemans and Rebecca Thornton

On the Gender Diversity of Research Teams in Economics Seminars pp. 473-76

Marcus Biermann

Effects of Parental Disability on Children's Schooling: The Surprising Role of Parental Education pp. 477-81

Katie Bollman and Leah Lakdawala

Learning Curve: Progress in the Replication Crisis pp. 482-88

Noam Angrist, Claire Cullen, Micheal Ainomugisha, Sai Pramod Bathena, Peter Bergman, Colin Crossley, Thato Letsomo, Moitshepi Matsheng, Rene Marlon Panti, Shwetlena Sabarwal and Tim Sullivan

Exacerbated Inequalities: The Learning Loss from COVID-19 in Italy pp. 489-93

Michela Carlana, Eliana La Ferrara and Carolina Lopez

Behavioral Nudges Reduced Dropout Risk among Vulnerable Students during the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Brazil pp. 494-97

Guilherme Lichand, Julien Christen and Eppie van Egeraat

Emotional and Behavioral Impacts of Telementoring and Homeschooling Support on Children pp. 498-502

Hashibul Hassan, Asad Islam, Abu Siddique and Liang Wang

Emoticons as Performance Feedback for College Students: A Large-Classroom Field Experiment pp. 503-07

Darshak Patel and Justin Roush

Competition, Motivation, and Student Engagement pp. 508-13

Amanda J. Felkey, Eva Dziadula and Eric Chiang

Messages That Foster a Sense of Belonging Improve Learning and Satisfaction: An Experiment in an Online Environment pp. 514-18

Sara Avila Forcada

Anxiety, Test-Taking Aid, and Test Scores: Evidence from Economics Classes pp. 519-23

Colin Cannonier and Monica Galloway Burke

Matching Pell Grants: Implications for College Debt and Parental Transfers pp. 524-29

Patricia Beeson, Daniele Coen-Pirani, Jessica LaVoice and Marla Ripoll

The Effects of Higher Student Loan Limits on Access to High-Earnings Graduate Programs pp. 530-34

Jeffrey Denning and Lesley Turner

The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes pp. 535-40

Martin Gervais, Qian Liu and Lance Lochner

Knowledge about Federal Employment Nondiscrimination Protections on the Basis of Sexual Orientation pp. 541-45

Billur Aksoy, Christopher S. Carpenter and Dario Sansone

Heterogeneity in Attitude Responses: Evidence from Bostock v. Clayton County pp. 546-50

Cameron Deal

Hormone Therapy, Suicidal Risk, and Transgender Youth in the United States pp. 551-55

Travis Campbell, Samuel Mann, Duc Hien Nguyen and Yana Rodgers

The Impact of COVID-19 on Workers' Expectations and Preferences for Remote Work pp. 556-61

Yuting Chen, Patricia Cortes, Gizem Kosar, Jessica Pan and Basit Zafar

Selection Bias in Voluntary Random Testing: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study pp. 562-66

Deniz Dutz, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Danae Roumis, Azeem Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky and Winnie van Dijk

Gendered Disparities during the COVID-19 Crisis in Sierra Leone pp. 567-71

Madison Levine, Niccolò F. Meriggi, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Vasudha Ramakrishna, Maarten Voors and Uday Wadehra

The Health of Democracies during the Pandemic: Results from a Randomized Survey Experiment pp. 572-76

Marcella Alsan, Luca Braghieri, Sarah Eichmeyer, Minjeong Joyce Kim, Stefanie Stantcheva and David Yang

Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe pp. 577-84

Lorenzo Caliendo, Luca David Opromolla, Fernando Parro and Alessandro Sforza

Distributional Impacts of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement pp. 585-89

Brian Kovak and Peter Morrow

Labor Mobility and Unemployment over the Business Cycle pp. 590-96

Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting and Linda L. Tesar

Time Savings When Working from Home pp. 597-603

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zárate

Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries pp. 604-08

Pawel Adrjan, Gabriele Ciminelli, Alexandre Judes, Michael Koelle, Cyrille Schwellnus and Tara Sinclair

How Work from Home Changes Housing Demand: Evidence from Online Search pp. 609-13

Elisa Guglielminetti, Michele Loberto, Giordano Zevi and Roberta Zizza

Measuring Work from Home in the Cross Section pp. 614-18

Augustus Kmetz, John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland

A Disaggregated View of Household Production Trends pp. 619-22

Benjamin Bridgman

A Model of Demand for Health and Caregiving Incorporating Marriage Markets pp. 623-26

Shoshana Grossbard and Lorena Hakak

Is All Caregiving Created Equal? A Comparison of Caregiving to Children and Adults pp. 627-31

Corina Mommaerts and Yulya Truskinovsky

The Girly Economics of Care Work: Implications for Economic Statistics pp. 632-36

Misty Heggeness

Why Did COVID-19 Vaccinations Lag in Low- and Middle-Income Countries? Lessons from Descriptive and Experimental Data pp. 637-41

Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Does Childhood Immunization Rebound after Extreme Shocks? Evidence from Floods and Strikes in Pakistan pp. 642-46

Subhash Chandir, Rachel Glennerster, Maryiam Haroon, Edward Jee and Danya Arif Siddiqi

Government Trust and COVID-19 Vaccination: The Role of Supply Disruptions and Political Allegiances in Sierra Leone pp. 647-52

Anbar Aizenman, Fatu E. Conteh, Rachel Glennerster, Samantha Horn, Desmond M. Kangbai, Anne Karing and Sarah Shaukat

The Impact of Large-Scale Social Media Advertising Campaigns on COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials pp. 653-58

Lisa Ho, Emily Breza, Abhijit Banerjee, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Fatima C. Stanford, Renato Fior, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Kelly Holland, Emily Hoppe, Louis- Maël Jean, Lucy Ogbu-Nwobodo, Benjamin A. Olken, Carlos Torres, Pierre-Luc Vautrey, Erica Warner, Esther Duflo and Marcella Alsan

Mental Models and Transfer Learning pp. 659-64

Ignacio Esponda, Emanuel Vespa and Sevgi Yuksel

Optimal Lending Contracts with Retrospective and Prospective Bias pp. 665-72

J. Aislinn Bohren and Daniel N. Hauser

Minutes of the Annual Business Meeting, New Orleans, LA, January 6, 2023 pp. 673-77

Peter Rousseau

Report of the Secretary pp. 678-82

Peter Rousseau

Report of the Treasurer pp. 683-87

Peter Rousseau

American Economic Association 2022–2023 Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics pp. 688-91

John Siegfried and Elizabeth Braunstein

Note from the AEA Secretary-Treasurer about the Proceedings Supplement pp. 692-

Peter Rousseau

Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee via Zoom, April 8, 2022 pp. 693-98

Peter Rousseau

Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee, New Orleans, LA, January 5, 2023 pp. 699-706

Peter Rousseau

Report of the Editor, American Economic Review pp. 707-20

Esther Duflo

Report of the Editor, American Economic Review: Insights pp. 721-29

Amy Finkelstein

Report of the Editor, Journal of Economic Literature pp. 729-32

David Romer

Report of the Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives pp. 733-35

Heidi Williams

Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics pp. 736-44

Benjamin Olken

Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy pp. 745-56

Erzo Luttmer

Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics pp. 757-64

Simon Gilchrist

Report of the Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics pp. 765-71

Leeat Yariv

Report of the Director, Job Openings for Economists pp. 772-74

John Siegfried

Report of the Committee on Economic Education pp. 775-81

Sam Allgood and KimMarie McGoldrick

Report of the Committee on Economic Statistics pp. 782-85

John Haltiwanger and Peter Rousseau

Report of the Committee on Government Relations pp. 786-88

Kenneth Troske

Report of the Committee on the Job Market pp. 789-91

John Cawley

Report of the Committee on the Status of LGBTQ+ Individuals in the Economics Profession pp. 792-93

Lee Badgett and Kitt Carpenter

Report of the Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession pp. 794-814

Gary A. Hoover and Ebonya Washington

Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession pp. 815-39

Anusha Chari

Report of the Task Force on Best Practices for Professional Conduct in Economics pp. 840-41

Amanda Bayer

Report of the Task Force on Outreach to High School and Undergraduate Students in Economics pp. 842-49

Martha Olney

Report of the AEA Data Editor pp. 850-63

Lars Vilhuber

Report of the AEA Ombudsperson pp. 864-66

Leto Copeley

Report of the Search Committee for the Editor for the American Economic Review: Insights pp. 869-

Pinelopi Goldberg

Report of the Search Committee for the Editor for the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy pp. 870-

Anna Aizer

Report of the Search Committee for the Editor for the American Economic Journal: Microeconomics pp. 871-

Doug Bernheim