Technological Forecasting and Social Change

2012 - 2025

Current editor(s): Fred Phillips

From Elsevier
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Volume 79, issue 9, 2012

Service regime: An empirical analysis of innovation patterns in service firms pp. 1569-1582

Yuan-Chieh Chang, Jonathan D. Linton and Min-Nan Chen

Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study pp. 1583-1591

Hao-Chu Lin, Pin Luarn, Ren-Horng Maa and Chao-Wen Chen

Modeling the relationship between IT-mediated social capital and social support: Key mediating mechanisms of sense of group pp. 1592-1604

Yuan-Hui Tsai, Sheng-Wuu Joe, Chieh-Peng Lin, Rong-Tsu Wang and Yu-Hsiang Chang

Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness — The case of electric mobility in Germany pp. 1605-1621

Martin Zimmermann, Inga-Lena Darkow and Heiko A. von der Gracht

Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation pp. 1622-1637

Alyona Zubaryeva, Christian Thiel, Enrico Barbone and Arnaud Mercier

An agent-based modeling approach to predict the evolution of market share of electric vehicles: A case study from Iceland pp. 1638-1653

Ehsan Shafiei, Hedinn Thorkelsson, Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Brynhildur Davidsdottir, Marco Raberto and Hlynur Stefansson

Valuation of electric vehicle batteries in vehicle-to-grid and battery-to-grid systems pp. 1654-1671

Robert Hein, Paul R. Kleindorfer and Stefan Spinler

Strategic niche management of alternative fuel vehicles: A system dynamics model of the policy effect pp. 1672-1680

Tae-hyeong Kwon

Transition failure: Understanding continuity in the automotive industry pp. 1681-1692

Peter Wells and Paul Nieuwenhuis

Financing the decarbonized energy system through green electricity tariffs: A diffusion model of an induced consumer environmental market pp. 1693-1704

Ivan Diaz-Rainey and Dionisia Tzavara

Detecting the temporal gaps of technology fronts: A case study of smart grid field pp. 1705-1719

Ssu-Han Chen, Mu-Hsuan Huang, Dar-Zen Chen and Siou-Zih Lin

Grey Lotka–Volterra model and its application pp. 1720-1730

Lifeng Wu, Sifeng Liu and Yinao Wang

Non-linear multiclassifier model based on Artificial Intelligence to predict research and development performance in European countries pp. 1731-1745

Mónica de la Paz-Marín, Pilar Campoy-Muñoz and César Hervás-Martínez

Volume 79, issue 8, 2012

Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study pp. 1373-1387

Steffen W. Schuckmann, Tobias Gnatzy, Inga-Lena Darkow and Heiko A. von der Gracht

Railway transport liberalization in the European Union: Freight, labor and health toward the year 2020 in Spain pp. 1388-1398

Antonio López Peláez, Sagrario Segado Sánchez-Cabezudo and Dimitris Kyriakou

Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles pp. 1399-1412

Andrew Higgins, Phillip Paevere, John Gardner and George Quezada

A comparative study of hype cycles among actors within the socio-technical system: With a focus on the case study of hybrid cars pp. 1413-1430

Seung-Pyo Jun

Integrating innovation system and management concepts: The development of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in Japan pp. 1431-1446

Hans Pohl and Masaru Yarime

The switchover to digital broadcasting in Korea pp. 1447-1461

Dong-Hee Shin and Hae-Ryong Song

Combining conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market pp. 1462-1473

Fang-Mei Tseng, Ya-Ti Lin and Shen-Chi Yang

Learning to surf: Spillovers in the adoption of the Internet pp. 1474-1483

Michael Ward

User experience on mobile video appreciation: How to engross users and to enhance their enjoyment in watching mobile video clips pp. 1484-1494

Eric W.K. See-To, Savvas Papagiannidis and Vincent Cho

The sources of use knowledge: Towards integrating the dynamics of technology use and design in the articulation of societal challenges pp. 1495-1512

Alexander Peine and Andrea M. Herrmann

The dynamics of public opinion on nuclear power. Interpreting an experiment in the Netherlands pp. 1513-1524

Karel Mulder

Consensus measurement in Delphi studies pp. 1525-1536

Heiko A. von der Gracht

Nonlinear influence on R&D project performance pp. 1537-1547

Yu-Shan Chen, Ke-Chiun Chang and Ching-Hsun Chang

The structure of inter-industry systems and the diffusion of innovations: The case of Spain pp. 1548-1567

María Semitiel-García and Pedro Noguera-Méndez

Volume 79, issue 7, 2012

Knowledge virtualization and local connectedness among young globalized high-tech companies pp. 1179-1191

Marina van Geenhuizen and Peter Nijkamp

Knowledge positions in high-tech markets: Trajectories, standards, strategies and true innovators pp. 1192-1216

Rudi Bekkers and Arianna Martinelli

Demand forecasting for new media services with consideration of competitive relationships using the competitive Bass model and the theory of the niche pp. 1217-1228

Hyeonju Seol, Gwangman Park, Hakyeon Lee and Byungun Yoon

Social Licence in Design: Constructive technology assessment within a mineral research and development institution pp. 1229-1240

Daniel M. Franks and Tamar Cohen

Options in technology investment games: The real world TFT-LCD industry case pp. 1241-1253

Liang-Chuan Wu, Shu-Hsing Li, Chorng-Shyong Ong and Chungteh Pan

A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry pp. 1254-1267

Hongyi Chen, Wayne Wakeland and Jiang Yu

Early Bayesian modeling of a potassium lab-on-a-chip for monitoring of heart failure patients at increased risk of hyperkalaemia pp. 1268-1279

Gijs van de Wetering, Lotte M.G. Steuten, Clemens von Birgelen, Eddy M.M. Adang and Maarten J. IJzerman

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating pp. 1280-1291

Jongsu Lee, Chul-Yong Lee and Kichun Sky Lee

Inside the learning dynamism inducing the resonance between innovation and high-demand consumption: A case of Japan's high-functional mobile phones pp. 1292-1311

Chihiro Watanabe, Genryo Kanno and Yuji Tou

Ex-ante evaluation of the consumers' preference for the 4th generation mobile communications service pp. 1312-1318

So-Yoon Kwak and Seung-Hoon Yoo

How ready-to-use therapeutic food shapes a new technological regime to treat child malnutrition pp. 1319-1327

José Guimón and Pablo Guimón

Play online, work better? Examining the spillover of active learning and transformational leadership pp. 1328-1339

Despoina Xanthopoulou and Savvas Papagiannidis

Governance experimentation and factors of success in socio-technical transitions in the urban water sector pp. 1340-1353

J.J. Bos and R.R. Brown

Rainwater harvesting in the UK: Socio-technical theory and practice pp. 1354-1361

S. Ward, S. Barr, D. Butler and F.A. Memon

Investigation of the effect of secondary market on the diffusion of innovation pp. 1362-1371

Youngsang Cho and Yoonmo Koo

Volume 79, issue 6, 2012

Sustainability transitions in the making: A closer look at actors, strategies and resources pp. 991-998

Jacco Farla, Jochen Markard, Rob Raven and Lars Coenen

Multi-dimensional struggles in the greening of industry: A dialectic issue lifecycle model and case study pp. 999-1020

Caetano Penna and Frank W. Geels

Identifying and unravelling persistent problems pp. 1021-1031

Tjerk Jan Schuitmaker

Networks and network resources in technological innovation systems: Towards a conceptual framework for system building pp. 1032-1048

Jörg Musiolik, Jochen Markard and Marko Hekkert

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology pp. 1049-1058

Maj-Britt Quitzau, Birgitte Hoffmann and Morten Elle

Credible expectations — The US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program as enactor and selector of hydrogen technologies pp. 1059-1071

Sjoerd Bakker, Harro van Lente and Marius T.H. Meeus

Expectations as a key to understanding actor strategies in the field of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles pp. 1072-1083

Bjoern Budde, Floortje Alkemade and Karl Matthias Weber

Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment pp. 1084-1098

Kornelia Konrad, Jochen Markard, Annette Ruef and Bernhard Truffer

Identifying and visualizing technology evolution: A case study of smart grid technology pp. 1099-1110

Ssu-Han Chen, Mu-Hsuan Huang and Dar-Zen Chen

Diffusion of forest biorefineries in Scandinavia and North America pp. 1111-1120

Annukka Näyhä and Hanna-Leena Pesonen

User producer interaction in context pp. 1121-1134

Roel Nahuis, Ellen H.M. Moors and Ruud E.H.M. Smits

Modeling the rebound effect in two manufacturing industries pp. 1135-1154

Karolina Safarzynska

All for one, one for all: Coopetition and virtual team performance pp. 1155-1168

Yehuda Baruch and Chieh-Peng Lin

Volume 79, issue 5, 2012

Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden pp. 801-818

Martin Börjesson and Erik O. Ahlgren

Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields pp. 819-831

Tobias Heger and René Rohrbeck

The changing pattern of SME's innovativeness through business model globalization pp. 832-842

Yongho Lee, Juneseuk Shin and Yongtae Park

The impact of competition, and economic globalization on the multinational diffusion of 3G mobile phones pp. 843-850

Towhidul Islam and Nigel Meade

Licensing technology to shape standards: Examining the influence of the industry context pp. 851-861

Ulrich Lichtenthaler

Exploring potential R&D collaborators with complementary technologies: The case of biosensors pp. 862-874

Ming-Yeu Wang

The complementary nature of technological capabilities: Measurement and robustness issues pp. 875-887

Giovanni Cerulli and Andrea Filippetti

Revisiting incubation performance pp. 888-902

José L. Barbero, José C. Casillas, Alicia Ramos and Susana Guitar

A socio-technical framework for assessing the viability of carbon capture and storage technology pp. 903-918

Nils Markusson, Florian Kern, Jim Watson, Stathis Arapostathis, Hannah Chalmers, Navraj Ghaleigh, Philip Heptonstall, Peter Pearson, David Rossati and Stewart Russell

ICTs: Do they contribute to increased carbon emissions? pp. 919-931

Jonathan D. Moyer and Barry B. Hughes

Whatever works: Uncertainty and technological hybrids in medical innovation pp. 932-948

David Barberá-Tomás and Davide Consoli

When technological discontinuities and disruptive business models challenge dominant industry logics: Insights from the drugs industry pp. 949-962

Valerie Sabatier, Adrienne Craig-Kennard and Vincent Mangematin

The struggle for space: Past and future of the space race pp. 963-985

Tessaleno Devezas, Francisco Cristovão L. de Melo, Maria Luisa Gregori, Maria Cristina V. Salgado, Joana R. Ribeiro and Christian B.C. Devezas

China/USA nanotechnology research output comparison—2011 update pp. 986-990

Ronald N. Kostoff

Volume 79, issue 4, 2012

Introduction to “Special Section: Innovations in India" pp. 605-606

Rajesh K. Pillania

The effects of patent-law changes on innovation: The case of India's pharmaceutical industry pp. 607-619

George T. Haley and Usha C.V. Haley

Globalization, socio-institutional factors and North–South knowledge diffusion: Role of India and China as Southern growth progenitors pp. 620-637

Gouranga Gopal Das

Innovative initiatives supporting inclusive innovation in India: Social business incubation and micro venture capital pp. 638-647

Lina Sonne

The harnessing of biotechnology in India: Which roads to travel? pp. 648-664

Susan E. Reid and Shyama V. Ramani

From information technology to bioinformatics: Evolution of technological capabilities in India pp. 665-675

Preeta M. Banerjee

On the diffusion of toilets as bottom of the pyramid innovation: Lessons from sanitation entrepreneurs pp. 676-687

Shyama V. Ramani, Shuan SadreGhazi and Geert Duysters

Scenario development for an evolving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business model innovation pp. 688-699

Tobias Gnatzy and Roger Moser

Information technology innovation in India: The top 100 IT firms pp. 700-708

Yu-Lin Wang, Shihping Huang and Yen-Chun Jim Wu

Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study pp. 709-715

Ruchita Gupta and Karuna Jain

RETRACTED: Innovation research in India: A multidisciplinary literature review pp. 716-720

Rajesh K. Pillania

Expanding the scope of prosumption: A framework for analysing potential contributions from advances in materials technologies pp. 721-733

Stephen Fox and Leijun Li

The PSM approach to transitions: Bridging the gap between abstract frameworks and tangible entities pp. 734-743

Georg Holtz

Trends and cycles of the internet evolution and worldwide impacts pp. 744-765

Luiz C.M. Miranda and Carlos A.S. Lima

Ecological modernisation of Chinese export manufacturing via green logistics management and its regional implications pp. 766-770

Kee-hung Lai, Christina W.Y. Wong and T.C.E. Cheng

Catch-up in ICT standards: Policy, implementation and standards-setting in South Korea pp. 771-788

Jae-Yong Choung, Tahir Hameed and Illyong Ji

Volume 79, issue 3, 2012

Exploring the impact of open innovation on national systems of innovation — A theoretical analysis pp. 419-428

Yuandi Wang, Wim Vanhaverbeke and Nadine Roijakkers

Asymmetric Nash equilibrium in emission rights auctions pp. 429-435

Congjun Rao, Yong Zhao and Chuanfeng Li

Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study pp. 436-447

Riccardo Vecchiato

Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies pp. 448-456

Floortje Alkemade and Roald A.A. Suurs

Integrated transitions toward sustainability: The case of water and energy policies in Israel pp. 457-468

Na'ama Teschner, Adrian McDonald, Timothy Foxon and Jouni Paavola

Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization pp. 469-484

Kun Chang Lee, Namho Lee and Habin Lee

Can innovation network projects result in efficient performance? pp. 485-497

Nieves Arranz and J. Carlos Fdez. de Arroyabe

Research Forecasting for Health Information Technology (HIT), using technology intelligence pp. 498-508

Nima A. Behkami and Tugrul U. Daim

Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach pp. 509-529

Ozcan Saritas and Yanuar Nugroho

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy pp. 530-542

Will McDowall

Personalized mobile advertising: Its key attributes, trends, and social impact pp. 543-557

Peng-Ting Chen and Hsin-Pei Hsieh

Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations pp. 558-569

Frank J. van Rijnsoever and Harmen Oppewal

The usage of VoIP services and other communication services: An empirical analysis of Italian consumers pp. 570-578

Grazia Cecere and Nicoletta Corrocher

World natural gas endowment as a bridge towards zero carbon emissions pp. 579-586

Roberto F. Aguilera and Roberto Aguilera

The ICT Development Index and the digital divide: How are they related? pp. 587-594

Jeffrey James

Volume 79, issue 2, 2012

Editor's introduction: Distributional consequences of emerging technologies pp. 199-203

Susan E. Cozzens

Sweetpotato—Biotechnology in different guises on a broad range of scales pp. 204-212

Lidia Brito, Roland Brouwer and Mário Falcão

Accessing and producing tissue cultured banana plantlets in Costa Rica and Jamaica: Insights on the distributive consequences of emerging technologies pp. 213-222

Isabel Bortagaray and Sonia Gatchair

Market competition and the distributional consequences of mobile phones in Canada pp. 223-230

Dhanaraj Thakur

Cellular phones in Mozambique: Who has them and who doesn't? pp. 231-243

Roland Brouwer and Lídia Brito

A limited revolution — The distributional consequences of Open Source Software in North America pp. 244-251

Dhanaraj Thakur

Identifying and bridging networks in regional clusters pp. 252-262

Yuya Kajikawa, Junichiro Mori and Ichiro Sakata

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes pp. 263-280

Jung Hoon Lee, Hyung-il Kim and Robert Phaal

Assessing the technology contribution to value added pp. 281-297

António S.C. Fernandes

Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions to assess innovation policy pp. 298-310

Florian Kern

Evaluating Adaptive Policymaking using expert opinions pp. 311-325

J.W.G.M. van der Pas, J.H. Kwakkel and B. Van Wee

Business type, industry value chain, and R&D performance: Evidence from high-tech firms in an emerging market pp. 326-340

Hsiao-Wen Wang and Ming-Cheng Wu

Moldova's internet revolution: Analyzing the role of technologies in various phases of the confrontation pp. 341-361

Volodymyr V. Lysenko and Kevin C. Desouza

Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey pp. 362-370

Filiz Ozkan, Omer Ozkan and Murat Gunduz

Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change pp. 371-382

Korbinian P. Freier, Rainer Bruggemann, Jürgen Scheffran, Manfred Finckh and Uwe Schneider

An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200mm to 300mm silicon wafers pp. 383-392

Su-Yun Chiang

Diffusion and competition of voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1948–2009 pp. 393-404

Vladimír Baláž and Allan M. Williams

Volume 79, issue 1, 2012

Using patent analysis to establish technological position: Two different strategic approaches pp. 3-15

Shann-Bin Chang

A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts pp. 16-29

Changyong Lee, Yangrae Cho, Hyeonju Seol and Yongtae Park

U. S. energy production activity and innovation pp. 30-46

Michael C. Connelly and J.A. Sekhar

Cyclical behavior of crude oil markets and economic recessions in the period 1986–2010 pp. 47-58

Jose Alvarez-Ramirez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Esteban Martina and Carlos Ibarra-Valdez

Common socio-economic cycle periods pp. 59-68

Bert de Groot and Philip Hans Franses

Estimating the impact of investing in a resource efficient, resilient global energy-intensive manufacturing industry pp. 69-84

Andrea M. Bassi, Zhuohua Tan and Armstrong Mbi

Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries pp. 85-96

Tomaž Turk and Peter Trkman

Identification of effective opinion leaders in the diffusion of technological innovation: A social network approach pp. 97-106

Youngsang Cho, Junseok Hwang and Daeho Lee

Technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features pp. 107-126

Antero Kivi, Timo Smura and Juuso Töyli

Productivity in China's high technology industry: Regional heterogeneity and R&D pp. 127-141

Rui Zhang, Kai Sun, Michael S. Delgado and Subal Kumbhakar

Internationalization and environmentally-related organizational learning among Chinese manufacturers pp. 142-154

Qinghua Zhu, Joseph Sarkis and Kee-hung Lai

Conceptualizing leapfrogging with spatially coupled innovation systems: The case of onsite wastewater treatment in China pp. 155-171

Christian Binz, Bernhard Truffer, Li Li, Yajuan Shi and Yonglong Lu

Forecasting technology diffusion with the Richards model pp. 172-179

Yorgos D. Marinakis