Technological Forecasting and Social Change

2012 - 2025

Current editor(s): Fred Phillips

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Volume 80, issue 9, 2013

Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management pp. 1647-1656

Murray Turoff, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Víctor A. Bañuls and Gerd Van Den Eede

The failure of foresight in crisis management: A secondary analysis of the Mari disaster pp. 1657-1673

Panos Constantinides

Plans never go according to plan: An empirical analysis of challenges to plans during the 2009 Victoria bushfires pp. 1674-1702

Richard Oloruntoba

The importance of a common understanding in emergency management pp. 1703-1713

Kimmo Laakso and Jari Palomäki

Emergency preparedness in Romania: Dynamics, shortcomings and policy proposals pp. 1714-1724

Marian Zulean and Gabriela Prelipcean

Planning in the emergency operations center pp. 1725-1731

Michael Ryan

The conjoint community resiliency assessment measure as a baseline for profiling and predicting community resilience for emergencies pp. 1732-1741

Odeya Cohen, Dima Leykin, Mooli Lahad, Avishay Goldberg and Limor Aharonson-Daniel

Learning before the storm: Modeling multiple stakeholder activities in support of crisis management, a practical case pp. 1742-1755

Josune Hernantes, Eliot Rich, Ana Laugé, Leire Labaka and Jose M. Sarriegi

Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact pp. 1756-1774

Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff and Starr Roxanne Hiltz

Improving public health emergency preparedness through enhanced decision-making environments: A simulation and survey based evaluation pp. 1775-1781

Ozgur M. Araz and Megan Jehn

Spatial connectivity as a recovery process indicator: The L'Aquila earthquake pp. 1782-1803

Diana Contreras, Thomas Blaschke, Stefan Kienberger and Peter Zeil

Dynamic decision trees for building resilience into future eco-cities pp. 1804-1814

Ioan M. Ciumasu

A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment pp. 1815-1833

Christoph Markmann, Inga-Lena Darkow and Heiko von der Gracht

Knowledge management systems in support of disasters management: A two decade review pp. 1834-1853

Magiswary Dorasamy, Murali Raman and Maniam Kaliannan

How the internet of things technology enhances emergency response operations pp. 1854-1867

L. Yang, S.H. Yang and L. Plotnick

Improving emergency plans management with SAGA pp. 1868-1876

José H. Canós, Marcos R.S. Borges, Ma Carmen Penadés, Abel Gómez and Manuel Llavador

A framework for agro-terrorism intentions detection using overt data sources pp. 1877-1884

Eli Rohn and Gil Erez

Volume 80, issue 8, 2013

Does the analysis of innovation barriers perceived by high growth firms provide information on innovation policy priorities? pp. 1450-1468

Werner Hölzl and Jürgen Janger

Properties of knowledge base and firm survival: Evidence from a sample of French manufacturing firms pp. 1469-1483

Alessandra Colombelli, Jackie Krafft and Francesco Quatraro

Proximity, networking and knowledge production in Europe: What lessons for innovation policy? pp. 1484-1498

Emanuela Marrocu, Raffaele Paci and Stefano Usai

From necessities to imaginary worlds: Structural change, product quality and economic development pp. 1499-1512

Pier Paolo Saviotti and Andreas Pyka

The choice of innovation policy instruments pp. 1513-1522

Susana Borrás and Charles Edquist

The "Matthew effect" in R&D public subsidies: The Italian evidence pp. 1523-1534

Cristiano Antonelli and Francesco Crespi

The relationship between research funding and academic consulting: An empirical investigation in the Spanish context pp. 1535-1545

Pablo D'Este, Francesco Rentocchini, Rosa Grimaldi and Liney Manjarrés-Henríquez

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy pp. 1546-1556

Fredrik Jansson, Patrik Lindenfors and Mikael Sandberg

Long-term GDP forecasts and the prospects for growth pp. 1557-1562

Theodore Modis

Idea Competitions under scrutiny: Acquisition, intelligence or public relations mechanism? pp. 1563-1578

Letizia Mortara, Simon J. Ford and Manuel Jaeger

The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry pp. 1579-1592

Martin Blom, Fulvio Castellacci and Arne Fevolden

The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies pp. 1593-1606

René Rohrbeck and Jan Oliver Schwarz

Quantifying the development of agreement among experts in Delphi studies pp. 1607-1614

J.V. Meijering, J.K. Kampen and H. Tobi

Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory pp. 1615-1628

Harro van Lente, Charlotte Spitters and Alexander Peine

Probabilistic causality pp. 1629-1634

Ian I. Mitroff and Abraham Silvers

Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project pp. 1635-1643

William E. Halal

Volume 80, issue 7, 2013

The impact of the economic crisis on innovation: Evidence from Europe pp. 1247-1260

Daniele Archibugi, Andrea Filippetti and Marion Frenz

Social capital, absorptive capability, and firm innovation pp. 1261-1270

Sui-Hua Yu

The impact of university–industry collaboration networks on innovation in nanobiopharmaceuticals pp. 1271-1286

Jiancheng Guan and Qingjun Zhao

The joint evolution of alliance networks and technology: A survey of the empirical literature pp. 1287-1305

C.C.M. Stolwijk, J.R. Ortt and E. den Hartigh

Accelerating the development of marine energy: Exploring the prospects, benefits and challenges pp. 1306-1316

Henry Jeffrey, Brighid Jay and Mark Winskel

Historical evidence for energy efficiency rebound in 30 US sectors and a toolkit for rebound analysts pp. 1317-1330

Harry D. Saunders

Combined biological and health effects of electromagnetic fields and other agents in the published literature pp. 1331-1349

Ronald N. Kostoff and Clifford G.Y. Lau

Mobile commerce usage activities: The roles of demographic and motivation variables pp. 1350-1359

Alain Yee-Loong Chong

Caring for healthcare entrepreneurs — Towards successful entrepreneurial strategies for sustainable innovations in Dutch healthcare pp. 1360-1374

Maarten Janssen and Ellen H.M. Moors

Non-technological innovations for sustainable transport pp. 1375-1386

Alexandra Hyard

Firms' intentions to use genetically modified organisms industrially: The influence of sociopolitical-economic forces and managerial interpretations in the Korean context pp. 1387-1394

Bongsuk Sung and Kyungyun Hwang

Environmental policies and eco-innovations by service firms: An agent-based model pp. 1395-1408

Benoit Desmarchelier, Faridah Djellal and Faïz Gallouj

Characterising CCS learning: The role of quantitative methods and alternative approaches pp. 1409-1417

Nils Markusson and Hannah Chalmers

An overview of the literature on technology roadmapping (TRM): Contributions and trends pp. 1418-1437

M.M. Carvalho, André Fleury and Ana Paula Lopes

Volume 80, issue 6, 2013

Analyzing and improving the national innovation system of highly developed countries — The case of Switzerland pp. 1035-1049

Christian Marxt and Claudia Brunner

Key principles for developing industrially relevant strategic technology management toolkits pp. 1050-1070

Clive Kerr, Clare Farrukh, Robert Phaal and David Probert

Dynamics of scientific knowledge bases as proxies for discerning technological emergence — The case of MEMS/NEMS technologies pp. 1071-1084

Alfonso Ávila-Robinson and Kumiko Miyazaki

Bibliometric analysis of service innovation research: Identifying knowledge domain and global network of knowledge pp. 1085-1093

Ichiro Sakata, Hajime Sasaki, Masanori Akiyama, Yuriko Sawatani, Naoki Shibata and Yuya Kajikawa

Patent citations as a tool for analysing the early stages of convergence pp. 1094-1107

Matti Karvonen and Tuomo Kässi

Trial and error mindset of R&D personnel and its relationship to organizational creative climate pp. 1108-1118

Kunio Shirahada and Kazuma Hamazaki

Empirical analysis of the effect of Japanese university spinoffs' social networks on their performance pp. 1119-1128

Yuri Hirai, Toshiya Watanabe and Atsushi Inuzuka

The process of making the business case for technology: A sales and marketing perspective for technologists pp. 1129-1139

D. Probert, M. Dissel, C. Farrukh, L. Mortara, V. Thorn and R. Phaal

Adoption dynamics of increasing-return technologies in systemic contexts pp. 1140-1146

Saku J. Mäkinen, Juho Kanniainen and Ozgur Dedehayir

Exploring industry dynamics and interactions pp. 1147-1161

Michèle Routley, Robert Phaal and David Probert

Structuration aspects in academic spin-off emergence: A roadmap-based analysis pp. 1162-1178

Jonathan Simões Freitas, Carlos Alberto Gonçalves, Lin Chih Cheng and Reynaldo Maia Muniz

Technology substitution and innovation adoption: The cases of imaging and mobile communication markets pp. 1179-1193

Luiz C.M. Miranda and Carlos A.S. Lima

Methodology of business ecosystems network analysis: A case study in Telecom Italia Future Centre pp. 1194-1210

Cinzia Battistella, Katia Colucci, Alberto F. De Toni and Fabio Nonino

Modeling technological innovation performance and its determinants: An aspect of buyer–seller social capital pp. 1211-1221

Yuan-Hui Tsai, Sheng-Wuu Joe, Cherng G. Ding and Chieh-Peng Lin

An examination of factors affecting accuracy in technology forecasts pp. 1222-1231

Shannon R. Fye, Steven M. Charbonneau, Jason W. Hay and Carie A. Mullins

From Open Source to Open Innovation practices: A case in the Greek context in light of the debt crisis pp. 1232-1246

Thanos Papadopoulos, Teta Stamati, Mara Nikolaidou and Dimosthenis Anagnostopoulos

Volume 80, issue 5, 2013

Identifying the underpin of green and low carbon technology innovation research: A literature review from 1994 to 2010 pp. 839-864

Qian Shi and Xiaodong Lai

Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability pp. 865-875

Martino Tran, David Banister, Justin D.K. Bishop and Malcolm D. McCulloch

Nuclear new build in the United States 1990–2010: A three state analysis pp. 876-892

Raphael Heffron

The national innovation system in the Taiwanese photovoltaic industry: A multiple stakeholder perspective pp. 893-906

Chih-Cheng Lo, Chun-Hsien Wang and Chun-Chien Huang

The introduction of electric vehicles in Brazil: Impacts on oil and electricity consumption pp. 907-917

Renato Baran and Luiz Fernando Loureiro Legey

An application of the text mining approach to select technology centers of excellence pp. 918-931

S. Ghazinoory, F. Ameri and S. Farnoodi

On the assignment of biopharmaceutical patents pp. 932-943

L.S. Madeira, S. Borschiver and N. Pereira

Social network analysis of patent infringement lawsuits pp. 944-955

Hyoungshick Kim and JaeSeung Song

Evolutionary learning methodology: A case study of R&D strategy development pp. 956-976

Soheil Hooshangi, Mohammad R. Arasti, David A. Hounshell and Sarah Sahebzamani

Moving forward or slowing-down? Exploring what impedes the Hellenic energy transition to a sustainable future pp. 977-991

Evanthie Michalena and Niki Frantzeskaki

Propagating a digital divide: Diffusion of mobile telecommunication services in Pakistan pp. 992-1001

Murtaza Mir and Brian Dangerfield

A study of the SME Technology Roadmapping Program to strengthen the R&D planning capability of Korean SMEs pp. 1002-1014

Seung-Pyo Jun, Ju Hwan Seo and Jong-Ku Son

Technology roadmaps: An evaluation of their success in the renewable energy sector pp. 1015-1027

Henry Jeffrey, Jonathan Sedgwick and Charles Robinson

Volume 80, issue 4, 2013

A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles pp. 566-583

Johannes Warth, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow

Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts: Linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios pp. 584-598

Brandon Pincombe, Sarah Blunden, Adrian Pincombe and Patricia Dexter

An innovation-focused scenario process — A case from the materials producing industry pp. 599-610

Heiko A. von der Gracht and Christopher Stillings

Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique — The case of transport and climate pp. 611-630

Vilja Varho and Petri Tapio

Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios? pp. 631-642

George Wright, Ron Bradfield and George Cairns

Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development pp. 643-656

Frances A. O'Brien and Maureen Meadows

Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework pp. 657-672

Camelia Ram and Gilberto Montibeller

A structuration approach to scenario praxis pp. 673-686

Brad MacKay and Paul Tambeau

Towards improving the relevance of scenarios for public policy questions: A proposed methodological framework for policy relevant low carbon scenarios pp. 687-698

Nick Hughes

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges pp. 699-710

Angela Wilkinson, Roland Kupers and Diana Mangalagiu

Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the ‘veil of ignorance’ effect pp. 711-722

Liviu Andreescu, Radu Gheorghiu, Marian Zulean and Adrian Curaj

Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework pp. 723-734

L. Alberto Franco, Maureen Meadows and Steven J. Armstrong

Storytelling and the scenario process: Understanding success and failure pp. 735-748

Gary Bowman, R. Bradley MacKay, Swapnesh Masrani and Peter McKiernan

Scenario development for water resource planning and management: A review pp. 749-761

Congli Dong, Gerrit Schoups and Nick van de Giesen

Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam pp. 762-771

Ahmad Dermawan, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Annette Huber-Lee and Amanda Fencl

Scenarios as channels of forecast advice pp. 772-788

Dilek Önkal, Kadire Zeynep Sayım and Mustafa Sinan Gönül

Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper pp. 789-800

Jan H. Kwakkel, Willem L. Auping and Erik Pruyt

Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality pp. 801-814

Philip Meissner and Torsten Wulf

Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning pp. 815-824

Paul Schoemaker, George S. Day and Scott A. Snyder

Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention pp. 825-838

Rafael Ramírez, Riku Österman and Daniel Grönquist

Volume 80, issue 3, 2013

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations pp. 379-385

Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ozcan Saritas

Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration? pp. 386-397

Karel Haegeman, Elisabetta Marinelli, Fabiana Scapolo, Andrea Ricci and Alexander Sokolov

Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents pp. 398-407

Lidan Gao, Alan L. Porter, Jing Wang, Shu Fang, Xian Zhang, Tingting Ma, Wenping Wang and Lu Huang

Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty pp. 408-418

Caner Hamarat, Jan H. Kwakkel and Erik Pruyt

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty pp. 419-431

Jan H. Kwakkel and Erik Pruyt

Future scenarios to inspire innovation pp. 432-443

Peter De Smedt, Kristian Borch and Ted Fuller

The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology pp. 444-452

Petra Schaper-Rinkel

Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation pp. 453-466

Elna Schirrmeister and Philine Warnke

Rising to the challenges—Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis pp. 467-470

Luke Georghiou and Jennifer Cassingena Harper

Where is synergy indicated in the Norwegian innovation system? Triple-Helix relations among technology, organization, and geography pp. 471-484

Øivind Strand and Loet Leydesdorff

Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem pp. 485-497

Chih-Young Hung, Wen-Yee Lee and Ding-Shan Wang

Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative technologies focusing on the green car pp. 498-509

Duk Hee Lee, Sang Yong Park, Jong Wook Kim and Seong Kon Lee

Investment decisions in the renewable energy sector: An analysis of non-financial drivers pp. 510-524

Andrea Masini and Emanuela Menichetti

Adoption of interrelated sustainable agricultural practices in smallholder systems: Evidence from rural Tanzania pp. 525-540

Menale Kassie, Moti Jaleta, Bekele Shiferaw, Frank Mmbando and Mulugetta Mekuria

The cybercrime ecosystem: Online innovation in the shadows? pp. 541-555

Erika Kraemer-Mbula, Puay Tang and Howard Rush

Volume 80, issue 2, 2013

Introduction to the field of creative enterprise pp. 187-190

Aard J. Groen and Steven T. Walsh

Creative enterprise as a solution vector for twenty first century problems pp. 191-193

Chavez, Victor (Vic)

The pharmaceutical technology landscape: A new form of technology roadmapping pp. 194-211

Robert Tierney, Wahid Hermina and Steven Walsh

Principal investigators as knowledge brokers: A multiple case study of the creative actions of PIs in entrepreneurial science pp. 212-220

Donna K. Kidwell

Using the quadruple helix to design strategies for the green economy pp. 221-230

Raul Gouvea, Sul Kassicieh and M.J.R. Montoya

Idiosyncratic distances: Impact of mobile technology practices on role segmentation and integration pp. 231-242

Nicolas Battard and Vincent Mangematin

Local responses to global technological change — Contrasting restructuring practices in two rural communities in Austria pp. 243-252

Matthias Fink, Richard Lang and Rainer Harms

Innovating via emergent technology and distributed organization: A case of biofuel production in India pp. 253-266

Gita Surie

Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies pp. 267-285

Douglas K.R. Robinson, Lu Huang, Ying Guo and Alan L. Porter

An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development pp. 286-306

Jung Hoon Lee, Robert Phaal and Sang-Ho Lee

Patent value assessment and commercialization strategy pp. 307-319

Chih-Hung Hsieh

An evaluation of green shipping networks to minimize external cost in the Pearl River Delta region pp. 320-328

Y.H. Venus Lun, Kee-hung Lai and T.C. Edwin Cheng

Impact of environmental dynamics on economic evolution: A stylized agent-based policy analysis pp. 329-350

Volker Nannen, Jeroen van den Bergh and A.E. Eiben

The moderating role of innovation culture in the relationship between knowledge assets and product innovation pp. 351-363

Gregorio Martín-de Castro, Miriam Delgado-Verde, José E. Navas-López and Jorge Cruz-González

The temporal dynamics of sensemaking: A hindsight–foresight analysis of public commission reporting into the past and future of the “new terrorism” pp. 364-377

R. Bradley MacKay and Ryan W. Parks

Volume 80, issue 1, 2013

Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study pp. 1-10

George Cairns, Iftekhar Ahmed, Jane Mullett and George Wright

Tailored and targeted communication strategies for encouraging voluntary adoption of non-preferred public policy pp. 24-37

Inwon Kang, Geon C. Lee, Chanuk Park and Matthew M. Shin

Intermediaries for open innovation: A competence-based comparison of knowledge transfer offices practices pp. 38-49

Allen T. Alexander and Dominique Philippe Martin

An innovation diffusion of successive generations by system dynamics — An empirical study of Nike Golf Company pp. 77-87

Victor B. Kreng and Bang Jyun Wang

Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications pp. 88-105

Spyridoula Lakka, Christos Michalakelis, Dimitris Varoutas and Draculis Martakos

Predicting the diffusion of LCD TVs by incorporating price in the extended Gompertz model pp. 106-131

Bi-Huei Tsai

Driving factors during the different stages of broadband diffusion: A non-parametric approach pp. 132-147

Vagia Kyriakidou, Christos Michalakelis and Thomas Sphicopoulos

Telescopic drilling view for future: A geothermal foresight study in Turkey pp. 148-160

Melih Soner Celiktas and Gunnur Kocar

International knowledge spillover through co-inventors: An empirical study using Chinese assignees' patent data pp. 161-174

Xi-Yao Xiang, Hong Cai, Shui Lam and Yun-Long Pei

Grey theory analysis of online population and online game industry revenue in Taiwan pp. 175-185

Tsung-Sheng Chang, Cheng-Yuan Ku and Hsin-Pin Fu